Welcome back to my weekly AFC West check-in – a quick, data-driven power ranking that tracks how the divisional shifts from Sunday to Sunday. Rankings aren’t box-score trophies – they’re context-adjusted judgments on where these teams are at and who’s sitting pole week to week. Here’s how I stack the AFC West after 11 weeks, and why.
4. Las Vegas Raiders
Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Las Vegas Raiders quarterback Geno Smith (7) passes the ball against the Kansas City Chiefs during the third quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
The Raiders are cemented in the AFC West basement at 2-8, and Monday night against Dallas just drove the point home as the Cowboys ripped off three straight touchdowns and cruised into the fourth quarter up 31-9 while Vegas settled for field goals and vibes. Geno Smith and the offense kept dragging Daniel Carlson out for chip shots instead of finishing drives, shrinking the playbook the second the game tilted, and never once looking dangerous in the red zone. On defense, they’re still asking Maxx Crosby to bail out a back seven that leaks explosives and forgets how to tackle, which is why their point differential is the ugliest in the division. Until this team stands for something more than praying Brock Bowers or Ashton Jeanty breaks a big play, they’re locked in as the clear No. 4 in a division where everyone else at least has a believable playoff narrative.
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Week 12 Lookahead: Browns at Raiders (Cleveland @ Las Vegas): They get an equally beat-up Cleveland team that is 2-8 and trying to manufacture offense, which makes this a rare week where the Raiders do not walk in as obvious underdogs. If Pete Carroll cannot drag real urgency and cleaner situational football out of this group at home against a struggling Browns roster, the rest of the schedule becomes nothing more than a live audition for who sticks in 2026.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
1. Patrick Mahomes
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) reacts during the third quarter of the game against the Washington Commanders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Kansas City slides to third because a 5-5 record with a 0-5 mark in one-possession games is the exact opposite of the closer aura this dynasty has lived on. The loss in Denver was a 2025 greatest hits tape of frustration, with Patrick Mahomes off schedule, a red zone interception, a blocked extra point, and another game that finished with chances left on the field. When the defense allows only one offensive touchdown and special teams still flip the outcome, the margin for error for Andy Reid’s offense shrinks to almost nothing, and this receiver group has not handled that stress. The Chiefs still have Mahomes and a defense that looks like a January unit, but right now they play more like a fragile wild-card hopeful than the automatic AFC West bully they used to be.
Week 12 Lookahead: Colts at Chiefs (Indianapolis @ Kansas City): The 8-2 Colts roll into Arrowhead behind Jonathan Taylor, who already has more than 1,100 rushing yards, over 250 receiving yards, and 17 total touchdowns, and whose offense leans on him like an MVP candidate every week. If the Chiefs do not tighten their run fits and rediscover a ball control identity of their own, Taylor and that physical Colts front can shorten the game, keep Mahomes watching from the sideline, and push Kansas City’s season from wobble to full panic.
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2. Los Angeles Chargers
Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium. Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
The Chargers stay in the second spot at 7-4, but that 35-6 beatdown in Jacksonville was such a no-show that it exposed every soft spot on Jim Harbaugh’s roster. Justin Herbert and the offense managed only 135 total yards, never found the end zone, and looked nothing like the explosive group that spent the first half of the season stealing games late. On defense, they were bullied for 192 rushing yards and allowed the Jaguars to score in every quarter without forcing a single punt, which is how a supposed contender gets treated like a sparring partner. The only reason they hang onto this ranking is the banked 7-4 record and Herbert’s history of fourth-quarter comebacks, because on tape that performance looked like a team begging the rest of the AFC to stop taking them seriously.
Week 12 Lookahead: (BYE): The bye could not arrive at a better time for a Chargers team that even their own building admitted was “humbled” and in need of a hard reset after that EverBank Stadium meltdown. Job one is getting Herbert healthy and recalibrating the protection and run defense, because the stretch run still features Denver and Kansas City, and this version of the Chargers has not earned the benefit of the doubt in any of those spots.
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1. Denver Broncos
Nov 2, 2025; Houston, Texas, USA; Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) scrambles during the second half against the Houston Texans at NRG Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Thomas Shea-Imagn Images
Nine wins in eleven games, an eight-game heater, and a huge home win vs. Kansas City is exactly how you walk into the AFC West throne room, grab the crown, and dare anyone to say something. Bo Nix just delivered another big-boy performance with 295 yards on 24-37 passing, no turnovers, and multiple money throws on the game-winning drive, while Wil Lutz calmly banged home five field goals, including the walk-off 35-yarder. The defense, led by Ja’Quan McMillian, turned Mahomes into a patient underneath passer, came up with a red zone interception and key late sacks, and once again looked like a unit that can win playoff street fights. Add in a two-game cushion on the Chargers and three-and-a-half on the Chiefs, and there is no argument left about who runs this division right now.
Week 12 Lookahead: (BYE): Denver gets a well-earned week off to heal up, correct the 147 penalty yards they gifted Kansas City, and let Nix and the young skill group catch their breath before the stretch run. Sean Payton is already hammering the toughness and professionalism narrative. If the Broncos treat the bye like another business week, they come out of it looking less like a fun hot streak and more like a fully formed Super Bowl problem.
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