NFL player prop lines continue to evolve as situations inevitably change from week to week in the NFL. Here is a closer look at some of the early lines to target entering Week 12 of NFL action.
Patrick Mahomes Over 271 Passing Yards
Nov 16, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) scrambles with the ball in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
The margin of error for the defending AFC Champion Kansas City Chiefs has essentially evaporated after their loss to the Denver Broncos in Week 11.
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The Chiefs are now entering a potentially must-win scenario to avoid a 5-6 start, which would put them in a horrible position to make the playoffs over the final six weeks of the 2025 NFL season.
This week, they draw a matchup against the high-powered Indianapolis Colts offense. The Colts have been scoring 30+ points in 2025 and could force the Chiefs into a shootout to keep their season alive.
Since the Chiefs don’t have a reliable running game, I expect Kansas City to continue to lean heavily on Patrick Mahomes’ arm to carry the offense.
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Sure, 271 yards is a high line, but with the Chiefs’ postseason hopes on the line in a favorable matchup, I expect Mahomes to clear this line pretty comfortably in Week 12.
Jonathan Taylor Under 90.5 Rushing Yards
Jonathan Taylor
Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor (28) scores the winning touchdown in overtime against the Atlanta Falcons during the NFL Berlin Game at Olympic Stadium. Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
On the opposite side of this game, Jonathan Taylor is facing one of the toughest matchups of his 2025 season with a Kansas City defense that traditionally does not allow huge rushing performances from opposing backs.
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Yes, Taylor is having an MVP-caliber year, but the Chiefs are allowing an average of just 100 rushing yards per game this season and an average of just 86.7 yards on the ground over their last three contests.
Despite Taylor’s impressive 2025 campaign, he has still finished with fewer than 90 rushing yards in five of his 10 games played this season. If there is a spot to bet against a big rushing game for Taylor, it feels like a must-win scenario for the Chiefs in Week 12.
Maxx Crosby Over 0.5 Sacks
Sep 28, 2025; Paradise, Nevada, USA; Las Vegas Raiders defensive end Maxx Crosby (98) warms up prior to the game against the Chicago Bears at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kiyoshi Mio-Imagn Images
Shedeur Sanders played just 51% of the offensive snaps in his NFL debut against the Baltimore Ravens. He was sacked twice, fumbled once, and threw an interception during his relief of Dillon Gabriel in Week 11.
The Browns’ issues on the offensive line are unlikely to drastically improve in one calendar week ahead of their matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, which makes Maxx Crosby an intriguing player prop play for Week 12.
In the limited action we have seen from Sanders in Week 11 and this preseason, the Colorado product tends to hold the ball too long and tries to escape pressure by retreating and drifting out of the pocket — which could be a recipe for sacks.
I’m willing to predict that Crosby gets to Sanders at least once in his starting debut in Week 12.
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