The Buffalo Bills take on the Houston Texans on Thursday evening and prediction market Kalshi is offering up a percantage chance the franchise overtakes the New England Patriots
15:49 ET, 20 Nov 2025Updated 16:14 ET, 20 Nov 2025
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen smiling
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The Buffalo Bills are at risk of losing the AFC East for the first time in six years(Image: Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
The Buffalo Bills have a 29 percent chance to overtake the New England Patriots and win the AFC East this season, according to prediction market Kalshi.
The platform, whose percentages reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the probability of an event, indicates that the AFC East division race is far from over. At 9-2, the Patriots have been one of the surprises of the 2025 NFL season and currently hold a slight lead over the Bills, 7-3, in the division standings.
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As of Thursday morning, prior to the Bills matchup against the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football, the Patriots have a 70 percent chance to win the AFC East, per Kalshi. Before the season, Buffalo held a 74 percent chance to win the division compared to New England at 14 percent.
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The Bills were as high as 95.3 percent prior to Week 4, when the Patriots were at a season-low 4.6 percent after starting the season 1-2. New England has not lost a game since.
Buffalo has finished top of the division in five straight seasons and could now give up its crown to Mike Vrabel, Drake Maye, and company if they do not turn things around over the final month and a half of the regular season.
If the two teams finish with the same win-loss record, the division winner will be decided by a head-to-head tiebreaker, which is currently held by New England because they beat Buffalo in Week 5.
New England Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen greeting after the game
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The Patriots used a last-second field goal to beat the Bills in Week 5(Image: Photo by Kathryn Riley/Getty Images)
The division rivals match up again in Week 15, an all-important clash if the Bills are to have a legitimate chance of winning the AFC East. If Buffalo wins that game, they strike even with the Pats on head-to-head record, sending the tiebreaker to record against division opponents.
That tiebreaker also favors New England, who is 3-0 against AFC East teams this season, while Buffalo is 2-2.
So the Bills will need help from either the Jets or Dolphins, each of whom play the Patriots one more time this season, if they are to have a chance of winning a sixth straight AFC East title.
Of course, tiebreakers won’t be needed if either the Bills or Patriots finish with a better win-loss record than the other.
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These probabilities will fluctuate depending on the outcome of Thursday night’s game between Buffalo and Houston.
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On Kalshi, the Bills own a 71 percent chance to win the game, with the Texans given a 29 percent chance.
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