The Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles Super Bowl matchup is the most likely
15:48 ET, 20 Nov 2025Updated 15:49 ET, 20 Nov 2025
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes embrace after the Super Bowl
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The Chiefs and Eagles have faced off in two of the last three Super Bowls(Image: Emily Curiel/The Kansas City Star/Tribune News Service via Getty Images)
A Super Bowl matchup between the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles has a 7 percent chance of happening, according to Kalshi.
That is the most likely Super Bowl matchup according to traders on the prediction market platform ahead of NFL Week 12, followed by the Colts vs. Rams and Bills vs. Rams. Despite the Chiefs’ struggles this season, Kalshi users still expect Patrick Mahomes and company to not only reach the playoffs, but go all the way to the championship game.
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If the prediction holds true, it will mark the third time Kansas City and Philadelphia will have met in the Super Bowl in the last four seasons.
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At 5-5 and outside of the AFC playoff picture after losing to the Broncos in Week 11, the Chiefs are at risk of missing the postseason for the first time in Mahomes’ career, although Kalshi users still give Kansas City a 63 percent chance to make it.
If they get in, Chiefs faithful will feel good about their chances no matter the path, given Mahomes’ incredible 17-4 career record in the playoffs.
The reigning Super Bowl champion Eagles, currently the No. 1 seed in the NFC, have the best chance (16 percent) to win it all again this year, per Kalshi. They lead the Rams (15 percent) and Bills (11 percent) atop the market.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones celebrating
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Daniel Jones is hoping to become the first QB to lead the Colts to the Super Bowl since Peyton Manning in 2009(Image: Photo by Luke Hales/Getty Images)
Colts vs. Rams, both at 8-2 and leading their respective divisions, is considered the second-most likely Super Bowl matchup.
The Rams’ nucleus of quarterback Matthew Stafford and head coach Sean McVay is one of the few remaining QB-HC tandems, along with the Chiefs and Eagles, to have already won a Super Bowl together.
The Colts have been a revelation in 2025 powered by NFL leading rusher Jonathan Taylor, but it remains to be seen how well quarterback Daniel Jones will operate come playoff time.
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It is clear that Kalshi users value past experience over current form, with neither the Broncos or Patriots, both 9-2, featured among the nine most likely Super Bowl matchups.
The Bills, currently trailing the Patriots in the AFC East, have reached at least the divisional or conference championship round of the playoffs each of the last five seasons, but have not appeared in the Super Bowl since losing four straight between 1990 and 1993.
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