Welcome to Week 12! The season is flying by, and for most fantasy leagues, only three weeks remain before the playoffs start in Week 15. Week 11 was among the lowest scoring weeks of the season, in part due to a slew of in-game injuries. Hopefully you scored enough to stay in the playoff hunt.
A quick thought before we get started -- The Lions, Ravens, and Seahawks are all capable of scoring points in bunches, and all three were largely stifled by a very stout defense last week. This week, the Lions host the 2-9 Giants, the Ravens host the 2-8 Jets, and the Seahawks visit the 1-9 Titans. I think all three will score 30+ points. Plan accordingly, fantasy managers.
A second quick thought – There are multiple injury situations to monitor this week. Make sure you follow the news heading into the games and adjust accordingly.
Stats of the Week:
Over his last seven games, Matthew Stafford has 22 TD passes and zero INTs.
The Titans are 4-23 since they fired Mike Vrabel. The Patriots are 9-2 since they hired Mike Vrabel.
Last season, the Chiefs were 12-0 in one-score games, including playoffs. This season, they’re 0-5 in those games.
Myles Garrett has 10 sacks over his last three games and leads the NFL with 15. He needs eight sacks across his final seven games to break the NFL record of 22.5 (shared jointly by Michael Strahan and T.J. Watt).
Garrett is the first player to record at least 12 sacks in six straight seasons (previous high: Lawrence Taylor, five). Sacks became an official stat in 1982.
The Broncos lead the NFL with 49 sacks. No other team has more than 34.
On Sunday, five NFL teams scored the winning points on the final play of the game (CAR, CHI, DEN, HOU, and MIA). That ties the NFL record for the most in one day.
Jacoby Brissett completed 47 passes (on 57 attempts) against the 49ers on Sunday, setting a new NFL record for completions in a game.
Jared Goff entered Week 11 leading the NFL in completion percentage, at 74%. Goff completed just two of his final 18 pass attempts on Sunday night against the Eagles. He no longer leads the NFL in completion percentage.
Dan Campbell’s Lions turned the ball over on downs five times on Sunday night at Philadelphia.
Fantasy Stat of the Week: Each of Lamar Jackson (4.7 fantasy points) and Justin Herbert (3.3 fantasy points) put up the worst fantasy score of his career on Sunday (excluding injury-shortened games).
Week 12, here we go!
Bye Weeks: DEN, LAC, MIA, WAS
Etienne has quietly been very good
Etienne has quietly been very good
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Week 12 Rides, Fades, and Sleepers
For those who are familiar with this column, you know the drill. For everyone else: The Rides, Fades, and Sleepers is an analysis of players that I think are primed for an especially strong or poor performance, often as compared to consensus expectations. This isn’t a straight-up Start/Sit exercise. As a general rule, start your studs. I’ll rarely list the most obvious names at a position as “Rides” because those players are almost always expected to have strong performances. You don’t need me or anyone else telling you to start Josh Allen, Jonathan Taylor, or Trey McBride. While this analysis is intended for season-long play, it works for DFS formats too. Half PPR scoring and Expert Consensus Rankings (ECR) are used for the column.
Each week, I’m picking a Ride, Fade, and Sleeper of the Week. The rules: The Ride of the Week can’t be a truly elite option, the Fade can’t be someone who nobody is starting anyway, and the Sleeper must be from down in the rankings.
My Rides, Fades, and Sleepers hit a bump in the road in Week 11, after a couple of stellar weeks. I did have Fade calls on Sam Darnold and Jared Goff, but had a bunch of notable misses. It was a weird week. You can check my work here: Week 11.
Ride of the Week: Travis Etienne (@ ARI). I haven’t mentioned Etienne much this season, but he’s been a steady producer. He’s the RB13 on the season and has found the end zone three times in the last two weeks. What’s especially intriguing this week is the potential absence of Bhayshul Tuten (ankle), who has been playing about a third of the snaps. The Cardinals are also a favorable matchup. Their defense has allowed the eighth most fantasy points per game (FPPG) and 13 total TDs to opposing running backs. They’ve totally fallen apart the last two weeks, with the Seahawks and 49ers both torching them for 40+ points. Etienne is managing a shoulder issue, but assuming he’s good to go, get Etienne in your lineup and enjoy.
Fade of the Week: Ashton Jeanty (vs. CLE). It’s been a disappointing season for Jeanty, who has only topped 15 fantasy points once all season. Hopefully you listened to me in the preseason when I said he was grossly overpriced. Anyway, if you needed him to have a big game on Monday night to get a win, his seven yards on six carries probably wasn’t what you were looking for. He did catch a season-high six passes, so maybe we’ll see more of that. The Browns’ defense is no joke and has allowed the sixth fewest FPPG to opposing running backs, and just five total TDs to the position. You might not have a better starting option, but I wouldn’t expect a big game.
Sleeper of the Week: Noah Fant (vs. NE). Most fantasy players don’t need to dig this deep at TE for a starter. For those who are in need, continue reading. Fant hasn’t done a whole lot this season, but he did have a season-high six targets against the Steelers on Sunday. With Ja’Marr Chase serving a one-game suspension and the Bengals likely to be playing from behind, I like Fant’s chances to see plenty of targets. New England has allowed a league-high 69 receptions to opposing tight ends. If you need a tight end streamer, you could do worse than Fant, who should outperform his TE19 ranking.
Purdy, Purdy good
Purdy, Purdy good
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Quarterback:
Elite options this week – Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson , Jalen Hurts , Drake Maye , Matthew Stafford , and Patrick Mahomes ; the analysis starts below them.
Jared Goff (vs. NYG). Goff and the Lions are going to want to get the stink of that Sunday night game off them as quickly as they can. Lucky for them, they’re back home, indoors, and facing a weak opponent. Big Blue can rush the passer, but they’ve allowed the third most FPPG, and 19 passing TDs, to opposing quarterbacks. Goff should rebound, and excel in the home dome this week.
Brock Purdy (vs. CAR). The Panthers haven’t been an especially good fantasy matchup for quarterbacks, but I like what I saw out of Purdy last week and will gladly list him as a Ride, at home in prime time, in a game San Francisco needs badly. He’s got most of his weapons healthy, those weapons are very good, and the 49ers are too banged up on defense to stop anyone. Expect another good outing for fantasy.
Other QBs ranked inside the Top-15 this week who I think can beat their weekly ranking: Sam Darnold (@TEN) who like Goff should bounce back from a sub-par outing, and Jacoby Brissett (vs. JAC). Both have favorable matchups.
If you need a second quarterback in a Superflex, or a Bye-Week streamer for one of the quarterbacks who is injured or on a Bye, the options this week aren’t great. Bryce Young (@SF) is always hard to trust, and I don’t like chasing his best performance of the season. With that said, I think you can roll with him at the 49ers, who are decimated on defense and just allowed Jacoby Brissett’s record-setting day. They’ve allowed the sixth most FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and a whopping 21 passing TDs. Just check to make sure Young (ankle) is good to go.
Others to consider: Trevor Lawrence (@ARI), Tyler Shough (vs. ATL), and Aaron Rodgers (@CHI, and like Young, make sure he’s playing).
Daniel Jones (@KC). Jones only has one game with fewer than 15 fantasy points this season, so I wouldn’t shy away from him if you need him. I just don’t like the matchup this week. The Chiefs are in unfamiliar territory at 5-5 and need this game a lot more than Indy does, and I think their defense will come to play, in front of their noisy home crowd. KC has allowed the sixth fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks, and just nine passing TDs (tied for best in the league). On the flip side, they’ve allowed QBs to score five rushing TDs which is the most of any team, which is a plus for the mobile Jones. Jones is outside my Top-12 QBs for the week.
Baker Mayfield (@LAR). Never count out Baker. Like Jones, I wouldn’t get cute by starting an inferior QB over him. I’d just manage expectations this week, and especially with Tampa still so short-handed at receiver. The Rams have been a bad matchup all season, which peaked last week with their four-INT obliteration of Darnold. For the season, L.A. has allowed the sixth-fewest FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. Baker hasn’t had a Top-5 weekly finish all season and I think he’ll be outside the Top-12 this week.
Others : Lower-ranked quarterbacks that you might be considering, but who I’d avoid in Superflex this week, include Davis Mills (vs. BUF), Tyrod Taylor (@BAL), Geno Smith (vs. CLE), J.J. McCarthy (@GB), and Kirk Cousins (@NO).
Kyren keeps delivering
Kyren keeps delivering
Running back:
Elite options this week – Jonathan Taylor, Bijan Robinson, Christian McCaffrey, Jahmyr Gibbs , and James Cook; the analysis starts below them.
Three must-starts this week: Derrick Henry (vs. NYJ), Kyren Williams (vs. TB),and Saquon Barkley (@DAL). None of these three have put up enough huge weeks to be listed along with the elite options, but they all have great matchups this week. The Jets, Cowboys, and Bucs are all Bottom-10 in terms of FPPG allowed to opposing running backs.
Will TreVeyon Henderson continue as the lead back with Rhamondre Stevenson returning this week? Will it be a true timeshare? It’s hard to know what Mike Vrabel and Josh McDaniels are going to do, but I think you have to roll with the rookie after his massive breakout the last two weeks. It’s also the single best matchup out there, as the Bengals have allowed the most yards and FPPG to opposing RBs, and 15 total TDs to the position (tied for most).
Others ranked inside the Top-30 this week who I think have a good chance to outperform their rankings make up a big group: Rico Dowdle (@SF), Woody Marks (vs. BUF, who allow the second most FPPG to opposing RBs and just got absolutely lit up by Devon Achane and Sean Tucker in Weeks 10 and 11), Ken Walker III (@TEN), Alvin Kamara (vs. ATL), David Montgomery (vs. NYG),and Aaron Jones, Sr. (@GB).
File this one under “duh”: If any of Trey Benson, Josh Jacobs, and/or Jaylen Warren, are not able to suit up this week, then Bam Morris (vs. JAC), Emmanuel Wilson (vs MIN), and/or Kenneth Gainwell (@CHI), respectively, are clear starts who fall somewhere in the RB2 range, with Gainwell having RB1 upside. Even if those starters do play, the backups mentioned might have Flex appeal as the starter could be limited or eased in.
Rhamondre Stevenson (@CIN) is ranked as the RB50 this week and that’s too low. There should be enough to go around against the Bengals’ porous run defense and especially if the Patriots are cruising with a lead. I think Stevenson can be flexed this week in his return to the lineup.
Sean Tucker (@LAR) is ranked as the RB30 this week, and while it’s a very bad matchup (the Rams have allowed the third fewest FPPG and just three total TDs to opposing RBs), I think you can roll with him as a low-end RB2 or Flex with Bucky Irving again ruled out.
Others to consider if you’re stuck at RB: Zach Charbonnet (@TEN), Kyle Monangai (vs. PIT), and Tyler Allgeier (@NO), all of whom are getting decent run as backups and are threats to score TDs each week. All have pretty good Week 12 matchups.
Breece Hall (@BAL). This call hit last week, so I’ll run it back. Baltimore has gotten much tougher on defense as they’ve gotten healthier. Since allowing 44 points to the Texans in Week 5, the Ravens haven’t allowed an opponent to reach 20 points, and I don’t expect the Jets to be the ones to stop that streak. I do think New York’s offense will improve with Tyrod Taylor, and I wouldn’t necessarily bench Hall. I just don’t like the matchup or upside.
Chase Brown (vs. NE) should see enough volume as both a runner and receiver that I wouldn’t sit him, but just know what he’s up against. The Patriots have been the single worst matchup for RBs all season. They’ve allowed the fewest rushing yards and FPPG and just three total TDs to the position.
I’ll fade both Giants’ RBs (@DET). They’re sharing the work, and even if Jaxson Dart is back as expected, I think this is a very tough spot overall for the struggling G-Men. They’re likely to be chasing points, which could limit rushing attempts (other than for Dart). The Lions are stingy and have allowed the second fewest FPPG to opposing RBs.
Rachaad White (@LAR) is a Fade for me, even with Bucky Irving missing another game. Sean Tucker has passed him and it’s a bad matchup.
Wide receiver:
Elite options this week – Puka Nacua , Amon-Ra St. Brown , CeeDee Lamb , Rashee Rice , and Jaxon Smith-Njigba . The analysis starts below them.
Can Michael Wilson keep it going?
Can Michael Wilson keep it going?
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Tee Higgins (vs. NE). He might see a lot of Christian Gonzalez, but with Ja’Marr Chase out and the Bengals almost certain to be chasing points, I like his chances to see double-digit targets. He brings a four-game TD streak into this game.
In the same contest, give me Stefon Diggs (@CIN). The Bengals have been a lot better against WRs than RBs or TEs, but I’ll still go with the Pats’ #1 option in a game where they should be able to move the ball at will.
Davante Adams (vs. TB) only had one catch for one yard last week, but thankfully it was in the end zone. Adams has seen at least six targets in every game this season and his red zone usage – tops in the NFL – has simply been astounding. The Bucs are a neutral matchup, but when you’re the runaway league leader with 24 red zone targets, and your quarterback is Matt Stafford, the matchup almost doesn’t matter.
I was on Tet McMillan (@SF) as a sleeper last week and it hit, so let’s stick with him, this time as a Ride as he’s ranked much higher. The 49ers couldn’t contain Michael Wilson last week, and I’m sure the Panthers took note. San Francisco’s banged-up defense has allowed the second most receiving yards and seventh-most FPPG to opposing wideouts.
It’s been ugly more often than not, and that includes Week 1 when the Eagles beat the Cowboys 24-20, but give me both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (@DAL). The Cowboys’ defense is better than it was earlier in the season, but they’ve allowed the most FPPG and TD catches (17) to opposing wideouts, and this game could see the Eagles finally come out of their shell with some downfield throws. It’s hard to have any confidence in the Eagles’ passing game, but if there was ever a week for it to happen, it’s this week.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-25 this week who have favorable matchups, and/or who I’m just high on for the week include Jameson Williams (vs. NYG), Zay Flowers (vs. NYJ), Michael Wilson (vs. JAC), and Chris Olave (vs. ATL).
I hit big on a few wide receiver sleepers last week, including (notably) Michael Wilson as a deep sleeper. So let’s try for some repeat success.
Darnell Mooney (@NO) hasn’t done much this season, and Kirk Cousins has played poorly in his last half-dozen or so starts going back to last season. Drake London is going to miss this week, and that puts Mooney in the WR3/Flex conversation.
The Rashid Shaheed (@TEN) bomb TD is coming. I just don’t know when. I’ll gamble on this week.
Other WRs ranked outside the top-25 this week that I think you can plug into lineups if you’re in need include Tre Tucker (vs. CLE), Mack Hollins and Kayshon Boutte (@CIN), Andrei Iosivas (vs. NE), and Luther Burden III (vs. PIT).
Want deeper sleepers? Isaiah Hodgins (@DET), DeMario Douglas (@CIN), Adonai Mitchell (@BAL), and Chimere Dike (vs. SEA, assuming he plays) are all long-shot dart throws who might be better tries in DFS than season-long formats.
George Pickens (vs. PHI) is having a great season, and I wouldn’t bench him. But I wouldn’t look for big production against Philadelphia, as they’ve been a bad matchup for perimeter receivers and especially in recent weeks. Only Denver has allowed fewer than the five TD catches that Philly has yielded to opposing wideouts.
Xavier Worthy (vs. IND) has been an auto-sit for me. He only has one Top-20 weekly finish, is getting very few running plays, and hasn’t topped six fantasy points in four straight games. He also tweaked his ankle last week.
I’m not recommending any Bills WRs (@HOU) this week. It’s a bad matchup (HOU has allowed the third fewest receiving yards and fourth fewest FPPG to opposing wideouts), it’s a Thursday night which often means suppressed scoring, and it’s hard to know which Buffalo wide receiver, if any, will step up week to week.
Other WRs ranked inside the Top-30 who I’m lower than consensus on this week include Michael Pittman, Jr. (@KC) and Romeo Doubs (vs. MIN).
Tight end:
Elite options this week – Trey McBride, George Kittle, and Brock Bowers. The analysis starts below them.
Stick with Travis Kelce (vs. IND). Kansas City desperately needs this game, and that means plenty of Kelce is likely. Kelce has double-digit fantasy points in five of his last six contests, including a season-high 19.7 last week. It’s also a great matchup, as the Colts have allowed the third most receiving yards and FPPG to opposing tight ends. Ride the old guy with confidence.
Hunter Henry (@CIN) only has one game all season with double-digit fantasy points, but he’s an absolute smash this week. The Bengals have been a bonanza for opposing tight ends all season. In addition to allowing the most receiving yards and FPPG to the position, the 12 TDs they’ve yielded to opposing TEs are five more than anyone else. Start Henry if you have him.
Kyle Pitts (@NO) has been dreadful for the past month or so, but his one good game came in Captain Kirk’s lone start, where he had nine catches in a losing effort vs. Miami. With Drake London out, I expect heavy volume from Cousins to Pitts again this week.
Other TEs in the Top-12 who I think have a good shot to outperform their weekly ranking this week: Mark Andrews (vs. NYJ) and Theo Johnson (vs. DET).
The Falcons have been terrific against tight ends, but that won’t stop me from recommending Juwan Johnson (vs. ATL). Across Tyler Shough’s first two career starts he’s got a 15% target share, 123 receiving yards, and a TD in each game. He’s clearly got the rookie’s trust and I’ll ride that trend in a tough matchup.
If your starter is on a Bye or you’re otherwise in need, here are other tight ends ranked outside the Top-15 this week that I think are worthy of consideration: A.J. Barner (@TEN) and Mason Taylor (@BAL).
Jake Ferguson (v. PHI) is having an outstanding season, with six Top-10 weekly finishes at the position. He isn’t a player you’re going to sit, but beware of his prospects this week. The Eagles have allowed the second fewest receiving yards and FPPG to opposing tight ends, and just one TD to the position (tied with Buffalo and Atlanta for the fewest). Ferguson was held in check (5-23-0) in the Week 1 contest at Philadelphia.
No change this week. T.J. Hockenson (@GB) is still an every-week Fade for me. He has only finished inside the Top-15 TEs once this season, and J.J. McCarthy isn’t inspiring confidence.
Dalton Schultz (vs. BUF) has been a viable play for the past month for those who’ve needed him, and Davis Mills has been better than expected. But this week the matchup is brutal. The Bills have allowed the fewest catches, yards, and FPPG to opposing TEs, and as noted above, just one touchdown. Schultz is ranked as the TE13 this week and I don’t see that kind of outcome as likely.
I’ll take another pass on Luke Musgrave (vs. MIN). He hasn’t been all that involved in the offense since Tucker Kraft went down. He only played 35% of the snaps against the Giants in Week 11, and hauled in just one reception.
PK and D/ST Streamers (ranked outside the top-12 for the week): See my Week 12 Waiver Wire column.
Good luck in Week 12!
***This column appears each Thursday right here at Big Blue View. Each Monday, my Waiver Wire column appears here, and on Fridays you can find my weekly Prop bets of the week for the Giants, also right here. ***