The Houston Texans enter Thursday Night Football with slim postseason hopes but a pivotal opportunity to shift the odds in their favor against the Buffalo Bills.
According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, Houston has a 26% chance to make the playoffs entering Week 12. A win over Buffalo would raise that probability to 37%, while a loss would drop it to 15%.
Demeco Ryan isn’t playing for the standings
For context, history is not on Houston’s side. Of the 989 NFL teams to start 5-5 or worse through 10 games in the Super Bowl era, only 89 — roughly 9% — have gone on to reach the postseason, per ESPN Research.
Still, head coach DeMeco Ryans said his focus remains on effort and execution, not numbers.
“All that stuff, it doesn't matter,” Ryans said bluntly on Wednesday, via ESPN’s DJ Bien-Aime. “Honestly, when the ball is snapped, nobody's thinking about, ‘We’re going to play harder because of the standings.’ If you're playing here in Houston, I expect you to play hard no matter when we're playing, whether it's preseason or it's the playoffs. It should look exactly the same when you turn our tape on.”
According to ESPN analytics, the Buffalo Bills are favored 63.5% over the Texans, 36.2%. NFL teams with a 5–5 record have made the playoffs, but it is relatively rare. Since the Super Bowl era began in 1966, only about 9% of teams that were 5–5 or worse through 10 games have gone on to qualify for the postseason. This means that while it is possible, it is considered an uphill battle and typically requires a strong finish to the season.
The Texans (5-5) will look to rebound after last week’s narrow loss, while the Bills (6-4) aim to solidify their own postseason position. Kickoff from NRG Stadium is set for 7:15 p.m. CST.
More NFL news