For the gambling degenerates, here are my Week 12 NFL picks. The team logos indicate who I think will win the game, not necessarily cover the spread. At the end of the picks, I'll note a few teams that I like based on the spread.
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Bills (-5.5) at Texans: C.J. Stroud won't play in this game, as he is still out with a concussion. I don't love this Bills team, but I'm certainly not picking Davis Mills to beat them.
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Steelers at Bears (-2.5): Aaron Rodgers has a broken left wrist, and may or may not play. If he can't go, the Steelers will start Mason Rudolph, who is apparently still in the NFL. If Rodgers plays, that injury is going to affect him, even if it's not on his throwing arm.
The Bears lead the league in INTs. They have feasted on bad quarterbacks all season, and they'll get another one on Sunday, whether it's Rudolph or an injured Rodgers.
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Jets at Ravens (-13.5): The Jets are still playing hard. That's about the only positive thing I can say for them.
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Giants at Lions (-10.5): The Lions have lost two of their last three, and three of their last five. But, the Giants are the ultimate "get right" team.
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Patri*ts (-6.5) at Bengals: The Patri*ts remind me a little of the 2017 Eagles, with their second-year quarterback in the MVP conversation. This Pats team isn't as good up and down the roster, but there are some parallels.
Also, they're an impressive 5-0 on the road this season, including wins over the Buccaneers and Bills.
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Seahawks (-13.5) at Titans: The Titans have played in competitive games the last two weeks, but they're still pretty clearly the worst team in the NFL.
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Vikings at Packers (-6.5): The Packers scored 13 points against the Panthers Week 9, and 10 points against the Eagles Week 10. In Week 11 against the Giants they scored 27 but failed to gain 300 yards of total offense. I'm obviously picking the Packers against any team quarterbacked by J.J. McCarthy, but beware in your survivor pools. This feels like a game where Brian Flores can scheme up a win on his own.
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Colts at Chiefs (-3.5): This is arguably the most interesting game on the NFL schedule this week, buried in the 1 p.m. time slot. I don't love either of these teams. The Colts were awesome out of the gate, but they have predictably come back to Earth a bit. Meanwhile, the Chiefs just kind of look like an average football team, matching their perfectly average 5-5 record.
The Chiefs have played in a ton of big games over the last decade, and, well, the Colts have not. With very little confidence, give me the desperate Chiefs, at home, with their backs against the wall.
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Jaguars (-2.5) at Cardinals: The Jags are young, but inconsistent, looking like legitimate playoff contenders one week and totally overmatched the next. The Cardinals are a little more consistent, in that it's clear that they suck.
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Browns at Raiders (-4): I had ESPN on my TV in the background while folding laundry and doing other tasks around my house yesterday, and they were talking about this game for like 10 minutes because Shedeur Sanders is starting for Cleveland. The Browns and Raiders are both 2-8, and Sanders was at times the QB3 or QB4 on a terrible team with no good quarterbacks that selected him in the fifth round of the draft.
Do people really care about Deion Sanders this much? And if so, could someone please answer... Why?
Anyway, that aside, at least the Browns have a good defense, whereas the Raiders have absolutely nothing.
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Eagles (-3) at Cowboys: I'm seeing a whole lot of people picking the Cowboys in this matchup, which I understand. They have an explosive offense, an improving defense, players returning from injury in bulk, and the latest impression people have of them is when they beat up on another team on national television on Monday night.
Meanwhile, the Eagles are straight up boring. Their offense is lost at the moment, and they'll be without arguably their best player (Lane Johnson) and possibly also starting C Cam Jurgens.
The most common reasoning the Cowboys will beat the Eagles, from what I've seen? CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens are going to tear Adoree' Jackson apart. Let's dive in on that for a moment. Here are the Eagles' corners' coverage stats, via PFF:
Eagles CBs Rec allowed / targets (Comp %) Yards (YPA) TD Rating
Quinyon Mitchell 26/60 (43.3%) 280 (4.7) 0 57.6
Cooper DeJean 30/48 (62.5%) 278 (5.8) 1 76.6
Adoree' Jackson 25/40 (57.8%) 293 (7.3) 1 93.0
I know that QB rating is a rather rudimentary measure of QB success, but just for funsies let's equate the QB rating of quarterbacks when they throw at Mitchell, DeJean, and Jackson, and find the closest comps to quarterbacks around the league so far this season.
When teams throw at Mitchell, they're getting results at like a J.J. McCarthy-like success rate. With DeJean, the closest QB is Russell Wilson. With Jackson, it's guys like C.J. Stroud and Jaxson Dart.
Jackson has been fine, and he's getting protected by a master schemer in Vic Fangio. He's just not anywhere near the same category as Mitchell or DeJean, who are having All Pro-like seasons.
It's like the Eagles' defense is the Death Star, with no weaknesses, except for a small thermal exhaust port that led directly to the main reactor core. So, I dunno, maybe Jackson (the exhaust port) will eventually be the Eagles' undoing? I just don't see it. Their defense has been dominant of late, and I believe that will continue.
The Eagles win unsatisfyingly, as usual.
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Falcons at Saints (-1.5): Michael Penix is done for the season, but I'm not sure there's really a huge dropoff from him to Kirk Cousins. Both of these teams stink, but I'll reluctantly take the Falcons here. As for the long-term outlook in Atlanta...
Oof.
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Buccaneers at Rams (-6.5): The Bucs have weathered all kinds of injuries along their offensive line and at receiver all season long, and have still managed to score a lot of points anyway. Unfortunately, their defense has not stepped up. The Rams, meanwhile, are the most complete team in the NFC right now, with both sides of the ball (mostly) playing well.
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Panthers at 49ers (-7): I'm kind of forced to take this game as my survivor pick this week, as we'll get to in a moment. I worry about this run-heavy Panthers offense having success against this depleted Niners defense.
I like the idea of hedging my picks against the spread vs. my survivor picks. I'll take the Panthers (+7). If the Niners get knocked off, at least I'll have gotten an ATS pick correct in my quest to get back to 0.500 on the season. And maybe I'll advance in my pool PLUS get a pick right if the Niners win by one score. We did this last week with the Patri*ts-Jets game. And again, it just feels like a logical no-brainer.
BYE: Commanders, Broncos, Dolphins, Chargers.
Survivor pick ☠️
There are three games this week in which there's a double-digit spread. The favorites in those games are the Ravens, Lions, and Seahawks. Personally, I've used all three of those teams already. You probably have, too, if you're still alive. But if not, any one of them are good picks.
There are four other games in which the line is at least six points or more:
Patri*ts (-7) at Bengals
Vikings at Packers (-6.5)
Buccaneers at Rams (-6.5)
Panthers at 49ers (-7)
Again, personally, I've used most of those teams. The only team I haven't used is the Niners. I don't feel good about taking them in this game, as noted above, but I suppose my hands are tied.
Week 1: Eagles ✅
Week 2: Ravens ✅
Week 3: Bills ✅
Week 4: Broncos ✅
Week 5: Lions ✅
Week 6: Packers ✅
Week 7: Chiefs ✅
Week 8: Colts ✅
Week 9: Rams ✅
Week 10: Seahawks ✅
Week 11: Patri*ts ✅
Week 12: 49ers
• Picks against the spread: Bills (-5.5), Bears (-2.5), Patri*ts (-6.5), Jaguars (-2.5), Browns (+4), Eagles (-3), Panthers (+7).
• Eagles picks: 8-2
• 2025 season, straight up: 105-58-1 (0.643)
• 2025 season, ATS: 25-35-1 (0.418) 😕
• 2024 season, straight up: 205-80 (0.719)
• 2024 season, ATS: 62-44-3 (0.583)
• 2023 season, straight up: 178-109 (0.620)
• 2023 season, ATS: 50-48-6 (0.510)
• 2022 season, straight up: 176-107-2 (0.621)
• 2022 season, ATS: 50-50 (0.500)
• 2021 season, straight up: 179-105-1 (0.630)
• 2021 season, ATS: 46-40-1 (0.534)
• 2020 season, straight up: 169-81-1 (0.675)
• 2020 season, ATS: 45-37-3 (0.547)
• 2019 season, straight up: 160-107-1 (0.601)
• 2019 season, ATS: 42-35-3 (0.544)
• 2018 season, straight up: 173-94-2 (0.647)
• 2018 season, ATS: 41-36-2 (0.532)
• 2017 season, straight up: 181-86 (0.678)
• 2017 season, ATS: 36-32-2 (0.529)
• 2016 season, straight up: 171-94-2 (0.644)
• 2016 season, ATS: 41-34 (0.547)
• 2015 season, straight up: 163-93 (0.637)
• 2015 season, ATS: 46-30-2 (0.605)
• Last 11 seasons, ATS: 477-415-23 (0.535)
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