This should be the year for the Bills. This should be their moment.
The Ravens and Chiefs, the latter being Buffalo’s annual foil, already have five losses, with each losing to the Bills. The Bengals are 3–7 and although Joe Burrow is slated to return shortly, it’s too late. The Chargers are talented, but the offense has allowed a league-high 58 quarterback hits on Justin Herbert, who won’t get star tackles Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater back this season.
There’s a real chance Buffalo is going to go into the postseason with Josh Allen, facing a playoff picture featuring Bo Nix, Daniel Jones, Trevor Lawrence, Aaron Rodgers and Herbert. If Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson make it, they’d almost assuredly be low seeds.
Yet through 11 games, the Bills don’t look the part of a team about to achieve greatness. They look like a team bursting at the seams with problems.
Sign Up. SI NFL Newsletter. Get MMQB's Free Newsletter. dark
After losing 23–19 to the Texans on Thursday Night Football, Buffalo is 7–4. Barring a collapse, it’ll make the playoffs, but the AFC East is in firm control of the Patriots, who not only have a two-game lead but also have a road win over the Bills and a soft schedule ahead.
It seemed Buffalo might escape on an improbable fourth-and-27, a 44-yard hook-and-lateral conversion. Instead, the miracle only delayed the Bills’ second loss in three weeks, with the defeats coming against Tua Tagovailoa and Davis Mills.
From a big-picture perspective, of all Buffalo’s problems, injuries are the most glaring. The Bills lost star linebacker Terrel Bernard on Thursday night to an elbow injury, with Bernard walking the sideline with a sling in the second half. Rookie corner Maxwell Hairston also left to be evaluated for a concussion, while right tackle Spencer Brown came out late due to an apparent upper-body problem.
Those three join the rest of the walking wounded, including defensive tackle Ed Oliver (biceps), edge rusher Michael Hoecht (Achilles) and defensive end Landon Jackson (MCL/PCL), among others with long-term ailments.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen lays on the ground after being sacked by Azeez Al-Shaair.
The Bills offense has struggled to get contributions around Josh Allen in recent weeks. / Alex Slitz/Getty Images
Offensively, the Bills have virtually no punch on the perimeter. While Khalil Shakir is a quality slot receiver with 54 catches and 564 yards, the rest of the group is hideous. Buffalo has benched Keon Coleman for a mixture of tardiness and poor play, with the former 2024 second-round pick notching only 32 receptions and 330 yards on 49 targets.
Beyond Coleman, the receiver group includes Curtis Samuel, Joshua Palmer, Tyrell Shavers, Elijah Moore and Gabe Davis, a quintet which has combined for 699 yards. If that total counted for one player, it would rank 14th in the league.
On defense, the issue is clear: The Bills can’t stop the run, a problem that crops up weekly. Buffalo entered Thursday night allowing 153 rushing yards per game on 5.4 yards per carry, ranking 31st in both areas. Against the Texans, the Bills knew they could crash the line of scrimmage with backup quarterback Davis Mills on the other side. Yet despite Mills’s presence and a bad offensive line in front of him, Buffalo still permitted 108 rushing yards on 4.2 YPC.
Instant Updates. SI Push Notifications. Sign Up for SI Push Alerts. dark
With the trade deadline in the rearview mirror, there’s nothing general manager Brandon Beane can do. Even if he could make a move, he might pass on the chance. After all, he infamously called into a local radio station this offseason to chastise the hosts who stated the team still needed receiver help. Defensively, Beane tried to make improvements, spending six draft picks on that side of the ball. Outside of nose tackle Deone Walker, though, it’s been a struggle between injuries and inconsistencies.
Looking ahead, the path isn’t easy. Buffalo has a mini-bye before taking on the Steelers in Pittsburgh before hosting Cincinnati, which will likely have Burrow under center. After that, the Bills have road dates with the Patriots and Browns, followed by the Eagles at home. Outside of Cleveland, the Bills don’t have an easy week for the next five games.
For so long, Buffalo has waited for everything to align. The Bills haven’t been the AFC’s No. 1 seed since 1993, the last time they went to the Super Bowl. This season could have been it, but New England, Indianapolis and Denver have stunned the football world, each having only two losses.
The Bills have been looking for a reprieve from the Chiefs, who have knocked Buffalo out of the postseason four of the past five seasons. This time around, the Chiefs may not even make it to January.
Yet the Bills look nothing like a team ready to go on a championship run.
Instead, they appear injured and fatally flawed on both sides of the ball, a playoff disappointment waiting to happen.
More NFL on Sports Illustrated