The Buffalo Bills lost to the Houston Texans on Thursday night to fall to 7-4 on the season. Their sixth straight AFC East title is probably not in the cards at this point, but they are still in very strong position to make the playoffs.
Buffalo Bills AFC East division standings
The New York Times playoff machine gives the Bills just a 10% chance of winning the AFC East following their loss to the Patriots. New England owns the first two tiebreakers over the Bills right now with a head-to-head win and a better AFC East record. Because the Bills lost to Miami, Buffalo is going to need New England to lose a divisional game or finish better than them overall. That means New England needs to lose at least two more games plus a loss to Buffalo, but the Bills are the only team with a winning record currently left on the Patriots schedule.
Buffalo Bills playoff chances are incredibly high
The Buffalo Bills own tiebreaker victories over the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens, which really helps in these scenarios as we approach the end of the season. The Bills do lose the tiebreaker to the Texans, however, for the same reason.
The AFC West still has lots of divisional games between the Chiefs, Broncos, and Chargers which will knock one of them out of position in all likliehood.
Buffalo Bills playoff chances in Week 12
The New York Times Playoff Machine gives the Bills an 86% chance of making the playoffs despite their loss. If they win their next two games, they move to 97%. If they just beat the Browns and Jets, they are at 95%.
Winning three AFC games down the stretch gets them to at least 98%.
Buffalo Bills remaining schedule
Week 13: Buffalo Bills at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14: Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
Week 15: Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
Week 16: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
Week 17: Philadelphia Eagles at Buffalo Bills
Week 18: New York Jets at Buffalo Bills
AFC playoff standings during Week 12
1. Denver Broncos (9-2, 6-2 AFC)
2. New England Patriots (9-2, 5-2 AFC)
3. Indianapolis Colts (8-2, win over DEN)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
5. Los Angeles Chargers (7-4, 6-2 AFC)
6. Buffalo Bills (7-4, 4-3 AFC)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)8. Houston Texans (5-5, 4-2 AFC)
9. Kansas City Chiefs (5-5, 2-4 AFC, win over BAL)
10. Baltimore Ravens (5-5, 3-3 AFC, loss to KC)
11. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
12. Cincinnati Bengals (3-7)
13. Las Vegas Raiders (2-7)
14. New York Jets (2-8)
15. Cleveland Browns (2-8)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-9)
AFC East standings during Week 12
1. New England Patriots (9-2)
2. Buffalo Bills (7-4)
3. Miami Dolphins (4-7)
4. New York Jets (2-8)