COLUMBUS, Ohio — The NFL draft is supposed to be simple: the best players go first. But as the Buckeye Talk crew explained in their latest episode, that’s rarely how things actually work — especially for safeties.
And that could have major implications for Ohio State star Caleb Downs.
“Caleb Downs is a top 10 player in this draft,” co-host Andrew Gillis said. “Caleb Downs is very clearly a dude, but I think teams... will look at this and say, ‘We could take a tackle over Caleb.’
“...Especially at the top of the draft, there are teams that are going to look at Caleb and say, ‘We’re not a safety away from being really good.’”
This phenomenon — where elite safeties slip in the draft due to positional value — is nothing new.
Only two safeties have been selected in the first round across the last five drafts. This historical trend suggests Downs could face an uphill battle to secure a top-10 selection despite his undeniable talent.
“I’m pre-warning people that the Caleb discourse is going to be stupid,” Gillis said.
He compared Downs’ situation to recent elite safeties who slipped in the draft despite their obvious talent, like Kyle Hamilton and Derwin James.
The podcast crew explored how the NFL’s positional hierarchy might impact Downs, with Means agreeing completely:
“If Caleb Downs goes 21st simply because of positional value, it would not shock me in the slightest bit. I agree with Andrew.”
This creates a fascinating scenario where Downs — currently ranked seventh overall in draft consensus boards — could become an absolute steal for a team picking in the middle of the first round. As the hosts discussed, this pattern has played out before with safeties like Hamilton, who was widely considered a top-5 talent but fell to 14th overall.
The hosts agreed that whoever lands Downs will likely be getting tremendous value. Gillis predicted:
“I think Caleb Downs is going to make a team very, very happy in the NFL draft because there’s going to be a team who probably doesn’t think they’re going to get him who gets him.”
For Ohio State fans, the conversation delivered the clear message that Downs won’t be returning to Columbus next season — the talent is simply too great. The question isn’t whether he’ll be a first-round pick, but rather how far NFL teams will allow him to fall before someone makes the smart choice.
Here’s the podcast for this week:
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