The first north London derby of the season takes place on Sunday, but where will the game be won and lost? We take a look at how Arsenal vs Tottenham could be decided.
For years while Arsenal and Tottenham had similar aims and goals, the north London derby went a long way to defining both teams’ seasons.
However, with Arsenal storming away at the top of the table and chasing a first Premier League title in two decades, and Spurs trying to discover themselves under new manager Thomas Frank, this game is significant for each club for very different reasons.
For Arsenal, the derby is always going to be bigger than a normal game, but essentially this is just another game with another three points on the line. For Spurs, it’s as much an opportunity to dent their rivals’ title chances as it is a chance to boost their own hopes.
So, will the Arsenal winning machine roll on to another victory? Or can Spurs put a spanner in the works?
Here are six aspects of the game that could decide where it is won and lost.
Do Arsenal Simply Have Too Much Momentum?
It’s often suggested that “form goes out the window” for a derby, but there isn’t a great deal of reason to believe that will be the case on Sunday.
Arsenal are four points clear at the top of the league, unbeaten in any competition in 14 games, and have been almost entirely impermeable at the back for most of the season. Spurs, meanwhile, have lost three of their last seven games, have only won three of their last 10, and haven’t really convinced at all under Frank.
Tottenham’s hopes are reflected in the 13.7% win probability assigned to them by the Opta supercomputer – their lowest chance of victory (in the eyes of the supercomputer) in any Premier League game this season.
Arsenal vs Spurs Prediction
As well as recent form, Arsenal also have momentum in this fixture on their side. They have won five of their last six league games against Spurs (drawing the other), and have won the last three in a row. That makes this their longest winning run against Spurs since a five-game run in the late 1980s.
They have also lost only one of their last 32 home north London derbies in the league (a 3-2 defeat in November 2010) and are on their longest ever home scoring streak against a single opponent, having scored in their last 26 home league games against Tottenham. And they’ve scored at least twice in each of the last eight of those; two goals on Sunday would equal their Premier League record for scoring 2+ goals in successive games against an opponent (nine vs Leicester, 1997-2016).
Arsenal are the better team, have every reason to be full of confidence and, no matter how much any Spurs fan will tell you they want to dent their rivals’ title hopes, have more riding on this game. They will be fully motivated to carry on their fine run against Spurs, and it’s easy to see their momentum proving too much.
Could Frank Switch to Three at the Back?
At Brentford, Thomas Frank was happy to change between a back three and a back four. He had periods during which he preferred one more than the other, but it wasn’t uncommon for him to switch from week to week between formations.
There was an expectation when he came to Spurs that he may do something similar. Many expected a level of pragmatism that extended to changing shape from game to game, but there hasn’t been any of that. Frank has started off with a back-four formation in every one of his 17 games in the league, Champions League and EFL Cup with his new team. There have been late changes in shape when protecting a lead or chasing the game, but nothing in the way of major pre-game tweaks.
This all seems a bit strange considering in his very first game – the UEFA Super Cup against Paris Saint-Germain – he did play with three centre-backs and Spurs put in a hugely encouraging performance to kick off the Frank era.
Although they ultimately came away empty handed after a penalty-shootout defeat, they very, very nearly beat the European champions and they would have deserved to win, too. It looked something like the blueprint for this team in big games against the best teams.
Tottenham lineup in the Super Cup vs PSG
We haven’t seen a back three since, though, with Spurs playing a version of 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 in every other game, but perhaps this weekend is the perfect time for it to return.
Kevin Danso has done well whenever Frank has called on him, and he is match-ready and match-fit heading into the weekend, which is more than can be said for a big chunk of the Tottenham squad, with so many players injured heading into the weekend. Danso could slot in alongside Cristian Romero to make a back five, as he did in that Super Cup tie.
PSG vs Spurs stats - Super Cup 2025
This might be a game for Spurs to sit back, block up the central spaces close to their own goal with a back five plus a double pivot of João Palhinha and Rodrigo Bentancur in front of them, soak up pressure – they had just 25.7% possession against PSG – and wait for their chances on the break or at set-pieces, where Danso would add to their physical presence.
Putting him in the starting lineup would also mean Spurs have their main long-throw specialist on the pitch. This game is hardly a practice match, but it may also come into Frank’s thinking that Spurs play PSG again on Wednesday in the Champions League, so he may plan to play with a back five then, and this could be a chance to give it another run-out.
There’s certainly a case to be made that he should do so.
Will Gabriel’s Injury Derail Arsenal?
Arsenal have had their fair share of significant injury problems already this season but, so far at least, their improved squad depth has allowed them to absorb those problems without much issue. A big summer of spending has given manager Mikel Arteta what is arguably the strongest and deepest squad in the Premier League.
Key players Martin Ødegaard, William Saliba, Bukayo Saka and Kai Havertz have already missed periods of the season, yet Arsenal have only failed to win three of their 17 games in all competitions. They are clear at the top of the table, favourites to win the league and have a 100% record in the Champions League, too.
They head into this weekend’s north London derby still without Ødegaard and Havertz, while Noni Madueke, Gabriel Martinelli and Viktor Gyökeres may all miss out as well, but the near-certain absence of centre-back Gabriel Magalhães could hit them hardest.
It was the loss of Saliba that derailed their title challenge in 2022-23, but they have already proven able to deal without him this season. Will it be a different story with Gabriel, who is now arguably the more important of their centre-backs? So far this season, he hasn’t missed a single minute.
Since the start of last season, Arsenal have won 61.5% of their Premier League matches with Gabriel in the starting lineup, but that win rate drops to 40.0% when he is missing. They score goals at roughly the same rate whether he is playing or not (1.8 vs 1.7 per game), but they concede 43% more goals in his absence (0.7 per game with him vs 1.0 without him).
Arsenal record with and without Gabriel
Arsenal are the top-scoring Premier League team this season when it comes to set-piece goals (10, excluding penalties) and as a proportion of their total goals (50%), and they will feel Gabriel’s absence in particular at dead-ball situations. He scored the last-gasp winner at Newcastle from a set-piece in September and got the assist for the only goal of the 1-0 win at Fulham at a corner last month.
At the other end of the pitch, his absence will also be significant – and even more so if Gyökeres misses out, given the Swede leads Arsenal’s rankings for winning the first contact at the most defensive corners (six). Tottenham have placed a lot of importance on set-pieces themselves, ranking third in the Premier League for set-piece goals (six) this season.
In Cristian Mosquera and Piero Hincapié, Arsenal have far stronger alternative options than they did last term, while another option is moving Riccardo Calafiori to centre-back and Myles Lewis-Skelly coming in at left-back. This should all mean they are better set up to deal with Gabriel’s injury.
But his potential absence should not be underestimated, and there is a chance it opens the door ever so slightly to their opponents.
(How) Will Spurs Create Any Chances?
Under Frank, Tottenham haven’t been the most inspiring team when it comes to chance creation.
It hasn’t hurt them too much, given they are fifth in the table heading into the weekend and are the fourth highest-scoring side, with 19 goals, 11 of which have come in open play (only two teams have more).
However, they recently put in one of the most inept attacking performances in their recent history, when they managed just 0.1 xG in their defeat to Chelsea. It was the lowest by any team in a Premier League game this season, and Tottenham’s second lowest in a Premier League match on record (since 2012-13).
They were better in their next league game, at home to Manchester United, but not by miles, and they took a long time to get going. They managed just 0.14 xG in the first half, and two of their best three chances of the game – from which they scored their two goals – came in the final six minutes.
Tottenham 2-2 Man Utd xG race
It all means that it would be understandable if they headed to the Emirates with little belief that they can break their next opponents down, particularly given how solid Arsenal have been this season.
Arteta’s side have conceded only five goals in 11 games, and are looking good value to challenge Chelsea’s record for the fewest goals conceded in a Premier League season.
It’s not like they even need to rely on goalkeeper David Raya to keep the ball out of the net, though. They have faced at least 20 fewer shots (81) than any other team, at least 10 fewer shots on target (21) and at least 4.3 fewer expected goals (6.1 xG). Quite how Tottenham plan on creating chances against this Arsenal side is anyone’s guess.
Arsenal xG against per game
For one thing, they will need Mohammed Kudus back from the knock that kept him out of the United game. He leads Spurs for expected assists (1.3 xG) and chances created (15) in the Premier League this season, while only Richarlison (19) has had more shots than him (17). He is also by far the best player they have when it comes to trying to keep hold of the ball on the break. Without him, Spurs often see the ball coming straight back at them every time they try to get out.
But up against this well-oiled Arsenal machine, who break up opposition moves with ruthless efficiency, Kudus will need help from his teammates. Spurs will need Xavi Simons to be at his best, and they also need the Wilson Odobert who did well off the bench against United and not the one who has gone missing far too frequently in Spurs colours. If those players can move the team up the pitch, Tottenham could find a route to goal.
However, given their recent form and Arsenal’s solid defence, it wouldn’t be a surprise if Spurs found getting anywhere near the Arsenal goal very, very difficult indeed.
Will Trossard Prove Key?
Any team heading to the Emirates at any point in the last four years would have done so with a specific plan to try to stop Bukayo Saka, and Spurs will be no different this weekend. Saka is Arsenal’s dangerman after all, and he has scored or assisted a goal in each of his last four appearances against Spurs, so there’s plenty of reason to be worried about his threat.
But while Saka remains a danger whatever the circumstances, he isn’t playing quite at his best at the moment. He’s certainly getting there, having scored in four of his last six appearances for club and country, but we know there’s another level to his game that he isn’t quite currently hitting.
A more in-form player who Spurs should probably worry about as well, but who often doesn’t get the same amount of credit, is Leandro Trossard. The Belgian rarely gets the headlines, but he has done so well recently that he is now an important member of the starting team, and he often pops up with key contributions at important times.
Since his Arsenal debut in January 2023, 56.5% of his Premier League goals (13 of 23) have put his side into the lead. That is more than any other Arsenal player and the fourth-most of any player in the Premier League with at least 20 goals in that time.
Those goals include scoring the winner at Fulham last month, a stunner that looked like it was going to earn three points at Sunderland just before the international break only for Arsenal to concede a late equaliser, and the winner in last season’s north London derby at the Emirates. He could be key once again this weekend.
Can Spurs Avoid Giving Arsenal a Helping Hand?
An odd quirk of recent north London derbies is how much help Spurs have given their rivals. In four of their last five meetings, a Tottenham player has scored an own goal.
This Arsenal team can have issues with breaking down opponents if the game remains goalless, and have been known to need a set-piece goal to open the game up. Once the opposition then have to come out looking for a goal, Arsenal find it much easier to score in open play. This weekend, Spurs could do without giving Arsenal any kind of leg up.
most own goals in the premier league
Each of those four aforementioned own goals has been Arsenal’s first goal of the game, and three of them have put Arsenal ahead inside the first half hour. The other one, scored by Dominic Solanke in January’s meeting, levelled the game at 1-1 before Arsenal went on to complete the turnaround.
Crucially, too, the last three of those own goals have denied Tottenham points. Two came in one-goal defeats (2-1 away from home last season and 3-2 at home the season before), and the other came in a 2-2 draw at the Emirates in September 2023. They have scored a league-high seven own goals since the start of the 2023-24 season, and they have lost five, drawn two and won none of the seven games in which they have put through their own net.
Spurs need to be absolutely flawless to have any chance of getting a result this weekend, and avoiding scoring another own goal would be a good starting point.
Premier League Stats Opta
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