The have climbed intothe AFC’s upper tier with one of the best records in football, but not everyone is convinced their success will last. Despite their 8-2 start, several analysts argue that Indianapolis’ rise may be smoke and mirrors built on luck, turnovers, and a forgiving schedule.
Analysts described the Colts as one of the confounding teams in the league, talented enough to win close games but flawed enough to collapse against better competition. He noted quarterback Daniel Jones’ erratic play in recent weeks has exposed the same issues that derailed his career in New York.
Indianapolis Colts, Daniel Jones, NFL, ESPN
Nov 9, 2025; Berlin, Germany; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) in action against the Atlanta Falcons during the NFL Berlin Game at Olympic Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
Multiple turnovers, sacks, and inconsistent decision-making have turned what was once a model of efficiency into a dangerous gamble. The concern is that when the pressure mounts in December, Jones’ mistakes could outweigh Jonathan Taylor’s brilliance.
NBC Sports analyst Mike Florio echoed that sentiment during his midseason discussion of potential Super Bowl contenders. He placed the Colts a notch below the true elites, emphasizing that while the team’s offense can overwhelm weaker opponents, its defense lacks the consistency to hold up in the postseason. Even with newcomer Sauce Gardner adding star power to the secondary, Indianapolis has allowed lesser quarterbacks to thrive for stretches, highlighting its vulnerability in high-leverage moments.
Bleacher Report’s NFL Analysis Exposes Indianapolis Colts as Pretenders
Indianapolis Colts, Daniel Jones, Mina Kimes
Aug 7, 2025; Baltimore, Maryland, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) passes during the first quarter against the Baltimore Ravens at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images
As it stands, Indianapolis isn’t perceived as a contender this season at all. This is detailed more in an analysis by Brad Gagnon for Bleacher Report.
Case for Pretender: Does anyone really trust Jones? They’ve also faced the second-easiest schedule in football this season, but their remaining strength of schedule is the toughest in the NFL.
Verdict: Pretender. In the next month, look for them to be exposed in road matchups with the Chiefs, Jaguars and Seahawks. They may still survive to win the division but are likely one-and-done in the playoffs.
Betting markets share the skepticism. According to analysts, oddsmakers still view Indy as a long shot despite its record, listing the franchise as a 10-1 underdog to win the Super Bowl. The Colts’ dramatic shift from preseason obscurity to AFC favorite status has surprised sportsbooks, but many expect regression once they face top defenses like Kansas City and Baltimore.
Indianapolis Colts, Daniel Jones, ESPN, NFL
Sep 14, 2025; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Indianapolis Colts tight end Tyler Warren (84) receives a pass from quarterback Daniel Jones (17) during the second quarter against the Denver Broncos at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images
Recent reports suggest internal challenges remain as well. The offensive line has shown signs of wearing down, and Taylor’s massive workload is testing his durability. Without another offensive star emerging to offset that strain, the team risks fading late in the season.
The Colts have proven resilient through the first half of the year, but durability and discipline will determine their fate. For now, the perception around the league is simple: Indianapolis may have the record of a contender, but its flaws suggest it is a pretender waiting to be exposed.
Indianapolis Colts, Daniel Jones
Indianapolis Colts guard Tanor Bortolini (60) hikes the ball to Indianapolis Colts quarterback Daniel Jones (17) on Saturday, Aug. 16, 2025, during a game against the Green Bay Packers at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis.
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