There’s an old axiom among NFL personnel and coaches, saying the season doesn’t truly start until Thanksgiving.
If that’s the case, consider Week 12 the final chance to send a message before the all-out sprint to the playoffs.
There are four key games to watch on Sunday, highlighted by the Colts coming off their bye week to take on the desperate Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium. A loss would drop Kansas City to 5–6, and Andy Reid’s team would basically need to run the table to make sure it doesn’t miss the playoffs. As for Indianapolis, a win would keep the Colts tied with an AFC-low two losses.
Elsewhere, the Rams and Buccaneers will lock horns Sunday night at SoFi Stadium. Los Angeles is trying to keep pace with the Eagles for home-field advantage, while Tampa Bay is attempting to break out of a funk, having lost four of its past six games.
Speaking of the Eagles, they’ll travel to Dallas for a date with the Cowboys, who are trying to get to .500 before hosting the Chiefs on Thanksgiving. Philadelphia is close to wrapping up its division, attempting to become the first NFC East team to win consecutive division titles since the Eagles won four straight from 2001 to ’04.
But we start in the Windy City, where the Bears host the Steelers in a contest between two playoff hopefuls.
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Spread: Chicago -2.5
Key matchup: Pittsburgh’s short passing game vs. Chicago’s defense
Key stat: The Steelers rank second with 149.3 passing yards per game in short area.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
On the surface, this is a game in which both offenses will excel. Provided Pittsburgh has Aaron Rodgers, despite his left wrist injury, the Steelers are facing the 27th-ranked defense, a unit checking in 23rd against the pass with 231.3 yards per game against.
However, a deeper look might worry some in the Steel City. While Chicago’s defense has been a sieve at times, it’s also very good against short passes. On throws that travel nine yards or fewer, Chicago ranks fifth, permitting just 98.9 passing yards per game. Dennis Allen’s crew is also sixth at -0.11 EPA per such play and tied for fifth with 5.0 yards per pass attempt in this area.
Meanwhile, this is how the Steelers move the ball in the air. Pittsburgh has thrown 241 passes under nine air yards, 10th-most in football. The Steelers have gained 149.3 yards per game in this subset, only less than the 49ers. If Rodgers & Co. are going to move the ball consistently, it’ll be with short throws.
Whoever wins this battle will likely win the game in a showdown of two playoff contenders.
Verdict: Chicago 23, Pittsburgh 20
Spread: KC -3.5
Key matchup: Jonathan Taylor vs. Kansas City’s front seven
Key stat: Indianapolis leads the NFL with +0.20 EPA per rush.
Date, Time, TV: 1 p.m. ET Sunday, CBS
Nothing about the Colts’ running game is normal. Indianapolis is lapping the league with its rushing attack, evidenced by two stats.
First, Jonathan Taylor has rushed for 1,139 yards and 15 touchdowns. The players closest to reaching Taylor are the Bills’ James Cook III (968 yards) and the Packers’ Josh Jacobs (11 touchdowns). Second, the Colts are rushing for +0.20 EPA per play. The next-best teams are the Bills (+0.09) and, ironically, the Chiefs (+0.08). The gap of 0.12 is equal to the space between the Chiefs and the Panthers, who rank 15th.
Defensively, Kansas City has been good against the run. The Chiefs rank ninth, allowing 100.0 yards per game on the ground. Cook is the only 100-yard rusher against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense this year, with the group keeping Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs, Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne Jr. and Ashton Jeanty limited to an average of 53.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry.
Of course, the key to limiting Taylor might be jumping out to a lead. For the Chiefs, that means beating old nemesis Lou Anarumo, Indianapolis’ defensive coordinator who, when with the Bengals, helped engineer an upset of Kansas City in the 2021 AFC title game. That said, Patrick Mahomes has faced Anarumo’s defense six times and is 3–3, while averaging 246.5 passing yards per game with 11 touchdowns against four interceptions.
Verdict: Kansas City 27, Indianapolis 24
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles haven’t been particularly productive in the air this season.
Jalen Hurts and the Eagles haven’t been particularly productive in the air this season. / Eric Hartline-Imagn Images
Spread: PHI -3
Key matchup: Jalen Hurts vs. Dallas’s pass defense
Key stat: The Eagles are 28th in passing yards per game at 184.9.
Date, Time, TV: 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday, Fox
There’s no reason to dig deep into the analytics for this game. It’s all right on the surface.
For the Cowboys, Sunday is a chance to get back in the playoff race. If they’re going to do it, they’ll need to tighten up defensively with a unit that currently ranks 30th against the pass. Facing the Eagles, there’s reason to believe Dallas can shore up its defense, as Philadelphia ranks 28th in passing yards per game with 184.9.
Despite having A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, it’s been a chore for the Eagles to do much through the air. In 10 games, both Smith and Brown have managed to eclipse 100 yards just twice apiece. Jalen Hurts has 16 touchdown passes with only one interception, but he’s taken 26 sacks. And this weekend, right tackle Lane Johnson will be out after sustaining a foot injury last Sunday.
Philadelphia is the better team, but it’ll need to make a few plays it hasn’t been making in recent weeks to win this road divisional tilt.
Verdict: Philadelphia 24, Dallas 20
Spread: LAR -6.5
Key matchup: Matthew Stafford and his weapons vs. Tampa Bay’s secondary
Key stat: The Buccaneers are relinquishing 7.7 yards per attempt, ranking 27th.
Date, Time, TV: 8:20 p.m. ET Sunday, NBC
The Buccaneers are fighting against the tide. They’ve lost four of their past six games and their defense is leaking, as evidenced by giving up 44 points in Buffalo last Sunday.
Now Tampa Bay faces an even tougher test, taking on the Rams Sunday night. The Buccaneers not only have to travel across the country but must go up against a Los Angeles passing attack that ranks sixth in the NFL at 246.9 passing yards per game.
For the Buccaneers, the top tests will be limiting Puka Nacua and Davante Adams. In nine games, Nacua has caught 73 of his 87 targets for 850 yards, fourth-best in football. Adams has also been terrific in his first year with the Rams, notching a league-high 10 touchdown receptions.
Defensively, Tampa Bay will need to rely heavily on slot corner Jacob Parrish and fellow rookie Benjamin Morrison. Jamel Dean is also in question, as the star veteran missed Wednesday’s practice with a hip flexor strain.
The Buccaneers have struggled on the back end even when healthy, ranking 27th with 7.7 yards allowed per attempt and 241.6 passing yards against per game.
Verdict: L.A. Rams 30, Tampa Bay 24
Spread: SF -7
Key matchup: San Francisco’s secondary vs. Tetairoa McMillan
Key stat: McMillan is sixth in the NFL with 748 receiving yards.
Date, Time, TV: 8:15 p.m. ET Monday, ESPN
If there’s a one-man show in the NFL, it’s Tetairoa McMillian and the Panthers’ passing game.
McMillan was selected eighth in the 2025 draft and hasmore than lived up to the hype, catching 54 passes for 748 yards and four touchdowns. He’s also ninth in targets with 89, giving Bryce Young a reliable 6'4" receiver to throw to.
The only problem? Everyone else who is asked to catch passes in Carolina. Every other Panthers receiver combined has fewer receiving yards than McMillan, making the 49ers’ job on Monday night rather obvious … stop McMillan at all costs. Of course, the Niners will also need to limit running back Rico Dowdle who enters the night with 833 yards (fourth in the NFL) on 5.0 yards per carry, but if McMillan is held down, Carolina will be extremely one-dimensional.
The biggest area for San Francisco to win against McMillan will be on intermediate routes (10 to 19 air yards). In that space, the rookie has caught 22-of-34 targets for 407 yards and a touchdown, giving him an EPA of +26.1. His yardage and EPA totals rank second and third respectively.
Verdict: San Francisco 27, Carolina 19
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