Mikel Arteta’s side dropped points before the international break and have several selection issues ahead of Sunday’s headline Premier League fixture. We look ahead to the north London derby at the Emirates Stadium with our Arsenal vs Tottenham prediction and preview.
Arsenal vs Tottenham: The Key Stats
Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer’s overwhelming favourites ahead of Sunday’s north London derby, having beaten Spurs in 69% of pre-match simulations.
Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games against Tottenham, including the last three in a row. It is their longest winning run against Spurs since a five-game stretch between January 1987 and January 1989.
This will be the first Premier League north London derby without either Harry Kane or Son Heung-min appearing for Tottenham since a 1-1 draw at the Emirates Stadium in September 2014.
Arsenal remain in control of the Premier League title race as we emerge from the final international break of 2025, but there may be reasons for Mikel Arteta to be nervous ahead of Sunday’s north London derby against Tottenham.
The Gunners dropped two points in a thrilling 2-2 draw with Sunderland prior to the hiatus. Arteta’s side had gone a remarkable 812 minutes without conceding a goal in all competitions before the Black Cats struck at the Stadium of Light.
Off the back of that draw, Arsenal – who already had injury concerns – saw key centre-back Gabriel Magalhães limp out of Brazil’s 2-0 friendly victory over Senegal at their own Emirates Stadium with a thigh injury.
The defender is now expected to miss at least a month of action, meaning he could be sidelined for crucial matchups against Bayern Munich in the UEFA Champions League and Chelsea in the Premier League, as well as Sunday’s derby meeting with Spurs.
Arsenal also have doubts over Viktor Gyökeres, Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli and Riccardo Calafiori, while Kai Havertz remains out. Gabriel Jesus recently returned to training but is not expected to be fit for the derby.
An extended period without Gabriel could present Arsenal with difficulties at both ends of the pitch. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, the Gunners have won 67.6% of their Premier League games when the defender has started (75/111), compared to just 50% without him (7/14).
And as the only defender in double figures for Premier League goals in that time (11, nine via his head), Gabriel has also been a key component of Arsenal’s set-piece prowess.
Excluding penalties, Arsenal have scored more goals from set-pieces both overall (10) and as a percentage of their goals (50%) than any other side in the Premier League this season. No team have conceded fewer set-piece goals than Spurs’ two this campaign, so Thomas Frank’s men could be particularly well-placed to take advantage of Gabriel’s absence.
At the other end of the pitch, Arsenal fielded Mikel Merino as a makeshift centre-forward, which could again be necessary if none of the Gunners’ traditional striking options are available.
Only Leandro Trossard and Martinelli, with nine goals apiece, have outscored Merino among Arsenal players since the start of the 2024-25 Premier League season (8). The Spaniard has come up with some big moments when fielded as the focal point of their attack, and they may need another this weekend.
Mikel Merino Arsenal goals since 2024-25
Though Manchester City could be breathing down their necks by the time Sunday’s game kicks off, Arsenal may be reassured to know that Opta’s expected points model holds them up as the Premier League’s best team this season. This measures how many points a team should have according to simulations based on expected goals, though admittedly doesn’t take into account game state or dangerous periods of possession that don’t lead to shots.
Tottenham are 16th in our expected points table but sit fifth in the actual standings, with only Sunderland (15th on expected points, fourth in the table) matching their overperformance this season.
Premier League expected points table 2025-26 (2)
It has been a mixed start to life in north London for Frank, and they played out an entertaining 2-2 draw with Manchester United prior to the international break, though that result extended their winless run at home in the Premier League to five matches. It has been a different story on the road, though, where they are the only unbeaten side remaining in the Premier League this season.
Spurs have taken the joint-most points (13), scored the joint-most goals (12) and conceded the fewest goals (three) of any side on their travels this term.
They will be looking for a new derby hero on Sunday, as this will be the first matchup between Arsenal and Tottenham to not feature either Harry Kane or Son Heung-min since September 2014, when the teams drew 1-1 at the Emirates. Between them, Kane (14) and Son (8) are responsible for 27% of Spurs’ Premier League goals against Arsenal (22/82).
Arsenal vs Tottenham Head-to-Head
Arsenal have won five of their last six Premier League games against Tottenham (D1), including the last three in a row. It is their longest winning run against Spurs since a five-game stretch between January 1987 and January 1989.
Indeed, Tottenham have lost seven of their last nine Premier League games against Arsenal (W1 D1), as many defeats as they had suffered in their previous 25 derbies against their main rival (W9 D9).
Things have been even more miserable for Spurs when they have travelled across north London. They have won just one of their last 32 away Premier League games against Arsenal, drawing 12 and losing 19, with that lone victory coming via a 3-2 scoreline in November 2010.
Arsenal have also scored in each of their last 26 Premier League home games against Tottenham, netting at least twice in each of the last eight.
It is their longest home scoring streak against any opponent in the competition, while only against Leicester City have they had a longer run of scoring two or more goals (nine matches between 1997 and 2016).
Frank, meanwhile, won his first ever Premier League game against Arsenal while in charge of Brentford in August 2021, but since then, he is winless in seven against the Gunners (D2 L5).
Arsenal vs Tottenham Prediction
Arsenal are the Opta supercomputer’s overwhelming favourites for victory on Sunday, with a 69% chance of taking all three points.
Spurs are only assigned a 13.7% chance of a rare away derby win, with 17.3% of simulations finishing level.
Arsenal vs Spurs Prediction
According to the supercomputer’s season predictions, Arsenal’s hopes of clinching the title dropped to 64.2% following their draw with Sunderland, but they are still significantly higher than those of second-placed Man City, with a 22.4% chance.
Spurs, meanwhile, are only assigned a 9.8% chance of making the top four, and a 6.9% probability of qualifying for the UEFA Europa League.
Arsenal vs Tottenham Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Cristhian Mosquera, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Mikel Merino.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Tottenham: Guglielmo Vicario, Pedro Porro, Cristian Romero, Micky van de Ven, Djed Spence, João Palhinha, Rodrigo Bentancur, Xavi Simons, Brennan Johnson, Wilson Odobert, Richarlison.
Head coach: Thomas Frank
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over onX, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.******