Strap in, friends, I’m here to predict the improbable and sometimes ridiculous with reckless abandon. Bold Predictions: Week 12, AFC West Edition. If you’re looking for logic-supported certainty, this ain’t it. These are swing-out-of-my-jock Hail Mary’s brewed from malts & hops and my many, many, poor life choices. I do look at the schedule and matchup data, if that makes you more comfy. But this goodness comes mostly from the knowledge that the NFL does what it wants – expectations be damned.
Kansas City Chiefs
NFL: Ranking the top 10 passing leaders after Week 8
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the third quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images
Chiefs Finally Look Like the Chiefs and Drop 30 Plus on the Colts
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Why It Will Happen: Kansas City is still top half of the league in yards per play and explosive pass rate, and they are three-point home favorites in a game hanging around a 50-point total, which screams “bounce back script” for Mahomes and Andy Reid. Arrowhead noise plus a Colts defense that grades better against the run than the pass is the perfect setup for Mahomes to uncork more downfield shots and red zone creativity instead of settling for field goals.
Why It Won’t Happen: The under has hit in most Chiefs games because drives die in the red zone, receivers not named Rashee Rice keep blowing basic plays, and Reid keeps getting conservative on fourth and short. If that sloppiness carries over against an Indy defense that sits in the top third by DVOA and has handled better passing games than this 2025 version of Kansas City, you get another 23 to 24 point grind instead of the statement explosion everyone is waiting on.
Spagnuolo’s Defense Puts the NFL’s No. 1 Offense in a Cage
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Why It Will Happen: Arrowhead is where Steve Spagnuolo’s pressure packages turn good quarterbacks into jittery ones, and the Colts timing-based passing game is vulnerable if Kansas City consistently wins on early downs. If the Chiefs offense jumps out early and forces Indy into a pass-heavy script, Spags can unleash his blitz menu and hold the league’s top scoring attack under 20 for one of the few times all season.
Why It Won’t Happen: Jonathan Taylor and that offensive line are built to blow up light boxes, and Indy is more than happy to live in second and five all afternoon and suffocate the game. If Kansas City’s run fits are even a touch loose and the offense continues to hand out three-and-outs, the defense gets gassed, explosives start leaking, and the “statement” turns into another late-game collapse.
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Las Vegas Raiders
Nov 6, 2025; Denver, Colorado, USA; Las Vegas Raiders running back Ashton Jeanty (2) rushes the ball against the Denver Broncos during the second half at Empower Field at Mile High. Mandatory Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Ashton Jeanty Finally Goes Full Bell Cow With 100 Plus Scrimmage Yards and Two Touchdowns
Why It Will Happen: The Browns are rolling out a rookie quarterback who just went 4-16 in relief, which screams short fields, conservative play calling, and a low total that leans right into a Jeanty-centered game plan. After catching heat for abandoning the run against Dallas, Chip Kelly has every incentive to funnel red zone work and swing passes to the back, who already has seven touchdowns in nine games.
Why It Won’t Happen: Vegas’ offensive line ranks near the bottom of the league in yards per rush and run blocking metrics, and Jeanty’s efficiency has been stuck in the mid-threes all season. If the Browns’ front chokes off early down runs and the Raiders fall behind again, Kelly is going to panic into another pass-heavy script and Jeanty’s touch count will look good while the production stays painfully ordinary.
Maxx Crosby and the Raiders Defense Force Three Turnovers and Score Once
Why It Will Happen: Cleveland has not won on the road, their rookie quarterback is making his first NFL start in a loud dome after a less-than-stellar debut, and the Raiders know this is their best shot to let Crosby and disguised coverages steal one. In a slow-n-go with a total in the high 30s, one strip sack, one tipped pick, and one defensive score is exactly how a desperate team drags itself to an ugly win.
Why It Won’t Happen: For all of Crosby’s brilliance, the Raiders’ overall pressure and sack rates are buried near the bottom of the league, which means offenses have been able to scheme him out and pick on the rest of that front. If Kevin Stefanski leans on Quinshon Judkins, screens, and quick game to simplify life for Shedeur Sanders and avoid obvious passing downs, the only turnover this defense generates will be fans turning off the TV.
Denver Broncos (BYE)
Denver Broncos
Denver Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (10) makes a pass against the Dallas Cowboys in the first quarter at Empower Field at Mile High. Credit: Ron Chenoy-Imagn Images
Broncos Own the AFC’s Best Record by the End of Sunday
Why It Will Happen: The Broncos already sit at 9–2 with an eight-game win streak and a defense strangling opposing quarterbacks, while their main AFC rivals all draw landmines on the Week 12 slate. If New England trips in Cincinnati and the Colts finally get punched in the mouth at Arrowhead, Denver wakes up Monday as the only AFC team with fewer than three losses and the “team to beat” narrative finally catches up to reality.
Why It Won’t Happen: The Patriots are big road favorites against a checked-out Bengals team, and the Colts have been bullying mediocre defenses all year long. If both simply handle business, the standings look the same on Monday, and the national shows keep treating the Broncos like a fun story instead of the conference heavyweight.
Bo Nix’s MVP Hype Train Actually Leaves the Station During the Bye
Why It Will Happen: Nix just outdueled Mahomes in prime time, has orchestrated clutch game-winning drives, and sits at the controls of a 9-2 division leader, which is exactly the profile producers love when they need a “new MVP candidate” segment. With Denver’s defense holding opponents to a bottom-tier QBR and every efficiency metric screaming that the Broncos are legit, it is an easy TV take to start sliding Nix onto those on-screen MVP ladders.
Why It Won’t Happen: His counting stats still lag behind the video game numbers guys like Josh Allen are putting up, and his own QBR lives in the “very solid, not alien” neighborhood. Voters and talking heads may keep handing the credit to the defense and special teams and keep Nix parked in the “game manager plus” tier rather than seriously talking about him next to the usual marquee names.
Los Angeles Chargers (BYE)
Justin Herbert
Los Angeles Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (10) passes the ball against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the fourth quarter of the game at SoFi Stadium. Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images
Chargers Use the Bye to Shake Up the Offensive Line Room
Why It Will Happen: Getting held to 135 total yards with your worst PFF grades of the season up front is exactly the kind of thing that forces a staff to pull the plug on underperforming linemen. With a playoff spot on the line and a divisional matchup against the Raiders looming, it would be coaching malpractice not to announce at least one change in the starting five and talk openly about fixing the run game and protection.
Why It Won’t Happen: Coaches love continuity almost as much as they love saying “we just have to execute better,” so the path of least resistance is to keep trotting out the same five and blame Jacksonville on a bad day. If the staff talks itself into minor scheme tweaks instead of real personnel changes, you will see the same leaky line in Week 13.
Justin Herbert Heads Into Week 13 Still Top Three in Passing Yards and Back in the MVP Whisper Zone
Why It Will Happen: Even after that horror show in Jacksonville, Herbert sits near the top of the league in yards and touchdowns, and a bye week, while other quarterbacks beat each other up in tougher matchups, can easily leave him in the top three by volume. The world is dying for a non-Mahomes, non-Allen name to push, and a 7-4 team with a stat monster at quarterback is tailor-made for “sneaky MVP candidate” chatter.
Why It Won’t Happen: A weekend of shootouts from other contenders can shove him down the leaderboard, especially since he is not adding anything in Week 12. Combine that with the lingering stench of an 81-yard outing and the narrative that the “Chargers just got exposed as soft by a real defense”, and we all may decide Herbert is yesterday’s news until he actually detonates someone out of the bye.
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