Renowned analytical newsletter and podcast Unexpected Points from Kevin Cole recently released their updated Bayesian quarterback rankings. These rankings are data-driven projections of quarterback efficiency for the rest of 2025 and beyond.
Updated Bayesian Quarterback Rankings @Unexpected_Pts
Uses draft prior and NFL evidence to update EPA/play projections with every play involvement. I'll put a full update with commentary on the site next week.
"Diff" is change from pre-season rankings pic.twitter.com/aMQr2VJW0H
— Kevin Cole (@KevinCole___) November 20, 2025
It's no surprise we see Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, and Lamar Jackson rounding out the top three names on this list. What I'm interested in, however, is the 12th and 14th ranked quarterbacks: Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff and Seattle Seahawks quarterback Sam Darnold.
In 2020, Goff ranked 26th and Darnold ranked 33rd. That off-season, both quarterbacks were let go by the teams that drafted them (the Rams and Jets, respectively). Goff found a new home with the Lions and Darnold went to the Panthers. In 2021, both QBs again ranked near the bottom of the league: Goff 26th and Darnold 29th.
New York Jets defensive end John Franklin-Myers (91) hits Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) at SoFi Stadium.
Dec 20, 2020; Inglewood, California, USA; New York Jets defensive end John Franklin-Myers (91) hits Los Angeles Rams quarterback Jared Goff (16) during the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium. / Robert Hanashiro-Imagn Images
In 2022, Goff improved in his second year with a change of scenery. He won 9 games with the Lions and ranked 14th, more than 10 spots higher than the year prior. Though Darnold didn't play enough games to qualify for the Unexpected Points rankings, he also made a significant leap from 2021 to 2022; his raw EPA/play was 0.16 (Goff's was 0.17).
Carolina Panthers wide receiver DJ Moore (2) celebrates with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) after he scored a touchdown.
Jan 1, 2023; Tampa, Florida, USA; Carolina Panthers wide receiver DJ Moore (2) celebrates with quarterback Sam Darnold (14) after he scored a touchdown against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers during the first half at Raymond James Stadium. / Kim Klement-Imagn Images
While Jared Goff continued to rebuild his career with the Lions in 2023, the Panthers found themselves with the first overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft and thus an opportunity to take their shot on acquiring a franchise quarterback on a rookie contract. The 49ers took advantage of an opportunity of their own and signed Darnold to a one-year contract to back up Brock Purdy.
San Francisco 49ers quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Arizona Cardinals at State Farm Stadium.
Dec 17, 2023; Glendale, Arizona, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Sam Darnold (14) throws a pass against the Arizona Cardinals during the first half at State Farm Stadium. / Joe Camporeale-Imagn Images
While Darnold didn't have the opportunity to take over as a starting quarterback in 2023, he did remarkably well in limited action, posting a 52.3% success rate on 44 snaps. Goff, too, proved his value behind center with a ranking of 11th overall and a 12-win season for the Lions.
In 2024, Darnold earned a $10 million starting job with the Vikings, and Goff earned a 4 year, $134 million extension with the Lions. Both quarterbacks rose to a level that few thought possible, winning a combined 29 of 34 games between them and landing in the top ten of the Unexpected Points QB rankings for the first time in the last five years.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) and Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) greet each other after the game.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold (14) and Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff (16) greet each other after an NFL football game Sunday, Oct. 20, 2024, in Minneapolis. / Bruce Kluckhohn / AP
When the Seahawks signed Sam Darnold for the 2025 season, I decided to go back and study all of his games with the Panthers, 49ers, and Vikings to get an idea of what Seattle was getting at quarterback. By the end of the tape, I had come to realize that Darnold reminded me a lot of Goff:
At the end of the day I see Sam Darnold as a quarterback in the mold of Jared Goff or Brock Purdy in the sense that he will occasionally create a negative play trying to squeeze every drop out of the scheme. He won't leave meat on the bone, but he *might* make a mess doing so.
— Seahawk Nerd (@SeahawkNerd) September 5, 2025
According to the recent analysis from Unexpected Points, both Sam Darnold and Jared Goff rank just outside of the top 10 in projected quarterback efficiency. They've come a long way from being given up on by their former teams who invested top-five picks to get them. With both quarterbacks currently one game back from the lead in tight three-way races for their respective divisions, it seems their stories —and their similarities— are not finished yet.
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