The Premier League returns from the November break with a decisive fixture for both clubs, as Arsenal host Tottenham Hotspur at the Emirates Stadium. The meeting arrives at a critical moment for two teams carrying contrasting ambitions but similar injury problems. Arsenal aim to retain their lead at the top of the table. Tottenham look for a result that keeps their Champions League hopes alive and preserves their undefeated away record.
This Arsenal vs Tottenham match preview examines recent form, statistical trends, tactical plans, key personnel, and the factors likely to shape the derby. All insights derive strictly from the data and reports you supplied.
### Head-to-Head Overview
Arsenal hold a clear advantage in recent league meetings.
* Five wins from the last six Premier League matches against Tottenham.
* Unbeaten in 31 home derbies since Spurs’ 3-2 win in November 2010.
* Scored in 26 straight Premier League home fixtures against Spurs.
* Scored at least two goals in each of the last eight home league derbies.
* Won the last three meetings at the Emirates.
Tottenham’s struggles in this fixture contrast with their impressive away form this season. Their only win at the Emirates in the Premier League era came in 2010. The derby normally tilts Arsenal’s way due to superior control, greater resistance at home, and the Emirates crowd’s impact on rhythm and tempo.
The last meeting in N5 finished 2-1 to Arsenal. A forced own goal from Dominic Solanke and a Leandro Trossard finish completed the comeback after an early Son Heung-min strike. That match captures a recurring theme: even when Spurs start well, Arsenal tend to impose control before halftime.
### Current Form and Momentum
#### Arsenal
Arsenal enter the match unbeaten in 14 straight games in all competitions. Their Premier League run features eight wins from 11 matches and the best defensive record in the division. They have conceded only five goals in the league. Only one of those came at home.
Key trends:
* Eight wins, two draws, one defeat in the league.
* Last league match: 2-2 draw away at Sunderland.
* Last five matches in all competitions: 1-0 vs Crystal Palace, 2-0 vs Brighton, 2-0 vs Burnley, 3-0 vs Slavia Prague, 2-2 vs Sunderland.
* Only one goal conceded at home all season.
* Ten Premier League goals from set pieces, the most in the division.
Arsenal remain consistent in matches where they score first. They average 3.00 points when opening the scoring. The only recent blemish was the late equaliser at Sunderland before the break.
#### Tottenham
Tottenham have improved under Thomas Frank but remain inconsistent in league play.
* Fifth in the table heading into the weekend.
* Winless in their last two Premier League matches.
* Lost three of their last seven in all competitions.
* Only one win in their last five against Arsenal.
* Yet unbeaten away from home this season, with four wins and one draw.
* Best away defensive record in the Premier League (three conceded).
* Scored two or more in each of their last five away matches.
Tottenham’s away performances are a major reason they sit near the top four despite significant injury issues and low expected-goals output. Their 11 xG is the sixth-worst in the league. They outperform that by almost eight goals.
That overperformance presents risk, especially against Arsenal’s league-best defensive metrics.
### Tactical Preview
#### Arsenal’s Approach
Arsenal operate in a 4-3-3 or 4-2-3-1 depending on build-up patterns. With Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz doubtful, Eberechi Eze takes the advanced midfield role. Mikel Merino is likely to continue as a false 9, supported by Bukayo Saka and Leandro Trossard.
Key priorities for Arsenal:
* Win the midfield battle through Rice and Zubimendi.
* Press Spurs’ buildup triggers through Saka and Trossard.
* Force Spurs into wide zones to deny central access to Simons or Kudus.
* Target Spurs’ vulnerability in early phases of matches. Tottenham have conceded 70 percent of their goals in first halves.
* Use set pieces as a primary chance source.
The major tactical unknown: replacing Gabriel Magalhaes. Arsenal concede 43 percent more goals when he does not play. Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie are expected to form the pairing with Saliba, unless Arteta uses Calafiori centrally.
Hincapie strengthens ball progression and defensive footspeed. He is the squad’s quickest defender and ranked fourth in the Bundesliga for progressive carrying distance last season. That gives Arsenal more ability to compress the pitch and control second balls.
Expect Arsenal to dominate territory, possession, and shot volume. They have conceded the fewest shots (81), shots on target (21), and expected goals against (6.1 xGA) in the league.
#### Tottenham’s Approach
Thomas Frank is likely to use his usual 4-2-3-1, but he could change to a back five. His PSG Super Cup model showed that a back three gives Spurs more control in deep areas and creates counterattacking clarity.
Key priorities for Spurs:
* Limit Arsenal’s set-piece threat.
* Force the match into transitions rather than settled play.
* Compress central spaces using Palhinha and Bentancur.
* Give Kudus and Simons outlets to carry the ball past the first press.
* Use Porro and Van de Ven’s pace to break wide pressure.
Spurs create very few high-quality chances in open play. They rely on transition runs, individual moments and set pieces. Without Maddison and without Kulusevski, Spurs lack creative depth and range in their passing game. Their xG vs Chelsea (0.1) and first-half xG vs Manchester United (0.14) illustrate the challenge against structured defensive sides.
If Kudus is not fit, their ability to break pressure diminishes. His ball-carrying ability allows Spurs to survive long stretches without possession.
### Key Players
#### Arsenal
**Declan Rice**
Controls tempo, screens transitions, and recovers possession. Spurs’ central threat depends on whether they can bypass Rice’s coverage.
**Bukayo Saka**
Direct output across goals and assists. Scored or assisted in four straight appearances against Spurs. His duel with Djed Spence is a major deciding factor.
**Leandro Trossard**
Produces decisive contributions. Thirteen of his 23 Arsenal league goals have given the team the lead. His timing in final-third actions is among the best in the squad.
**Eberechi Eze**
Will likely start in the left-sided role, drifting inside. A key connection point with Merino. Facing Tottenham after almost joining them gives this performance extra scrutiny.
**Cristhian Mosquera and Piero Hincapie**
Gabriel’s absence shifts responsibility to both defenders. Their speed, anticipation, and positioning will determine how effective Arsenal are against counterattacks.
#### Tottenham
**Mohammed Kudus**
Leads Spurs in expected assists and chance creation. His availability swings Tottenham’s level significantly.
**Xavi Simons**
Beginning to settle after a slow start. Creative output is essential if Spurs want to access central spaces.
**Richarlison / Mathys Tel**
Frank may start Richarlison for physical duels, but Tel is in strong form. Either will need service that has been inconsistent this season.
**Pedro Porro**
Creates more chances than any Spurs defender. Spurs lean heavily to his side in buildup.
**Joao Palhinha**
Key in defensive structure. Must protect the space in front of Romero and Van de Ven with high discipline.
Injury and Squad Updates
------------------------
### Arsenal Absences
* Gabriel Magalhaes: out for weeks with a thigh issue.
* Gabriel Jesus: knee, out.
* Kai Havertz: knee, out.
* Noni Madueke: knee, out.
* Gabriel Martinelli: knock, out.
* Martin Odegaard: doubtful.
* Viktor Gyokeres: doubtful.
* Riccardo Calafiori: doubtful but possible.
### Tottenham Absences
* Dejan Kulusevski: knee, out.
* Dominic Solanke: ankle, out.
* James Maddison: ACL, out.
* Radu Dragusin: ACL, out.
* Ben Davies: out.
* Archie Gray: muscle, out.
* Lucas Bergvall: concussion, doubtful.
* Mohammed Kudus: knock, doubtful.
* Yves Bissouma: ankle, doubtful.
* Randal Kolo Muani: jaw, doubtful.
* Kota Takai: foot, doubtful.
* Pape Matar Sarr: knock, doubtful.
### Statistical Breakdown
**Arsenal Season Stats (per league data supplied)**
* Points per game: 2.36
* Goals scored per match: 1.82
* Goals conceded per match: 0.45
* Win rate: 73%
* Clean sheet rate: 64%
* PPG at home: 2.60
**Tottenham Season Stats**
* Points per game: 1.64
* Goals scored per match: 1.73
* Goals conceded per match: 0.91
* Win rate: 45%
* Clean sheet rate: 36%
* PPG away: 2.60
**Set Pieces**
* Arsenal: 10 goals scored from set pieces (first in league).
* Spurs: 2 conceded from set pieces (best record).
* Both teams rely on dead-ball scenarios for chance volume.
**Home/Away Trends**
* Arsenal conceded only one home goal all season.
* Spurs unbeaten away and top of the away table.
* Spurs have scored two or more in each of their last five away matches.
* Arsenal average 2.36 PPG compared to Spurs’ 1.64.
The numbers present a clear contrast: Arsenal’s defensive control and set-piece productivity against Tottenham’s away resilience and low-volume chance creation.
### Prediction and Closing Thoughts
The match presents competing trends. Tottenham travel well and defend effectively in away fixtures. Arsenal dominate at home, control matches territorially, create higher-quality chances, and defend at a level unmatched in the division.
Both squads face severe injury disruption, but Arsenal’s depth mitigates losses more effectively. The absence of Gabriel Magalhaes is significant, but Mosquera and Hincapie provide athletic and positional cover. Tottenham’s problems in attack are harder to solve. Their chance creation falls well below league averages even with Kudus available. Without him at full capacity, their ability to progress the ball suffers.
The match is likely to be decided by two factors:
1. Arsenal’s set-piece quality vs Tottenham’s defensive structure.
2. Spurs’ ability to survive long periods without the ball.
Given Arsenal’s control in home derbies, their superior metrics, and Tottenham’s reliance on overperforming their xG, the most balanced outlook is a narrow Arsenal victory.
**Prediction: Arsenal 2-1 Tottenham**
Arsenal maintain their lead at the top, extend their unbeaten home derby streak, and begin a demanding week with a measured, controlled performance.