The Buffalo Bills' chances of making the NFL playoffs took a hit after losing to the Houston Texans on Thursday night, according to the prediction market platform Kalshi
12:32 ET, 21 Nov 2025Updated 12:32 ET, 21 Nov 2025
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen pointing
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Josh Allen and the Bills have reached the playoffs in six straight seasons(Image: Photo by Tim Warner/Getty Images)
The Buffalo Bills’ chances of making the NFL playoffs took a hit after losing to the Houston Texans on Thursday Night Football.
Buffalo, who lost 23-19 to Houston on Thursday night to drop to 7-4 on the season, has a 14 percent chance of missing the playoffs as of Friday morning, according to Kalshi. The Bills have missed the playoffs just once since drafting Josh Allen in 2018, which they did in his rookie season.
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Kalshi is a popular prediction market platform whose percentages reflect the collective beliefs of traders about the probability of a given event. In this case, traders expect the Bills to make the playoffs despite their recent stumble.
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On Tuesday, two days before the game, Buffalo was as high as 98 percent to make the playoffs on Kalshi, although that number dipped to as low as 92 percent by Thursday morning.
After the loss, Allen and company own an 88 percent chance to make the postseason for a seventh straight season.
Ahead of Sunday and Monday’s Week 12 action, the Bills are the No. 6 seed in the AFC playoff picture, one win ahead of the Texans at 6-4. The Kansas City Chiefs (5-5) and Baltimore Ravens (5-5), both Super Bowl hopefuls coming into the season, remain outside of the playoff picture prior to their Week 12 games.
Of course, seeding and playoff probabilities will fluctuate depending on this weekend’s results.
Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes meet at midfield
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The Bills defeated the Chiefs 28-21 in Week 9(Image: Photo by Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images)
As of Friday morning, Kalshi traders give Baltimore a 77 percent chance to make the playoffs, followed by Kansas City (65 percent) and Houston (38 percent).
The Bills hold a crucial advantage over the Chiefs and Ravens, who they both beat already this season. If Buffalo finishes with the same win-loss record as either team, they will win the tiebreaker because of those victories.
If Buffalo finishes with the same record as Houston, then the Texans win the tiebreaker because of Thursday night’s result.
Buffalo can still mathematically win the AFC East and clinch an automatic playoff berth, although it will take a massive effort to surpass the New England Patriots (9-2).
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At the time of writing, the Bills have a 19 percent chance of winning the division, with the Patriots listed at 81 percent.
Before losing on Thursday night, Kalshi traders gave Buffalo a 29 percent chance to overtake New England and win the AFC East.
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