There was plenty of optimism surrounding J.J. McCarthy as he took over as the Minnesota Vikings’ quarterback heading into the 2025 season.
The 10th-overall pick in the 2024 draft appeared to be stepping into one of the most quarterback-friendly environments in the NFL. Sam Darnold had just shown what Kevin O’Connell’s offense could do for a former draft bust, throwing for 4,319 yards and 35 touchdowns while leading the Vikings to a 14-3 record.
With McCarthy on a rookie deal, most assumed Minnesota’s aggressive free-agent spending spree would give him the supporting cast he needed to succeed. An improved offensive line, at least theoretically, would protect him in the passing game and provide a reliable rushing attack to take pressure off the 22-year-old quarterback.
They spent just over $50 million guaranteed on veteran defensive tackles Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen. Somewhat surprisingly, the Vikings also retained Byron Murphy Jr., whose six interceptions were tied for the third-most in the league.
McCarthy was unlikely to match Darnold’s lofty 2024 numbers because he’s a 22-year-old, first-year quarterback. Still, he had shown leadership and poise in big moments. McCarthy led Michigan to a National Championship in 2023, highlighted by a come-from-behind win over Alabama in the Rose Bowl. Meanwhile, Darnold’s remarkable 2024 season fizzled out with duds in Week 18 against the Detroit Lions and in the Wild Card matchup against the Los Angeles Rams.
It’s an understatement to say that Minnesota’s 4-6 record through 10 games in 2025 is underwhelming. But the disappointment turns into panic and confusion when looking at McCarthy’s performance.
His passing yards (842), passing touchdowns (6), completion percentage (52.9%), and EPA per dropback (-0.37) all rank dead last among qualified quarterbacks. His completion percentage over expected (CPOE) is -7.3%, ahead of only Caleb Williams. And only Williams holds the ball longer than McCarthy, whose average time to throw is 3.16 seconds.
Occasionally, it appears the Vikings are putting too much on McCarthy’s plate. They committed eight false-start penalties two weeks ago against the Baltimore Ravens, and multiple coaches and players said McCarthy’s cadence may have been the cause. That created first-and-long scenarios that pushed Minnesota out of ideal running situations before he snapped the ball.
But in last week’s game against the Chicago Bears, it seemed like the Vikings were going out of their way to help McCarthy. They ran the ball five times on their nine-play opening drive, yet gained only 28 yards. The drive ended when McCarthy sailed a pass over and behind Justin Jefferson’s head on a wide-open out route on third-and-three. Minnesota punted, foreshadowing a frustrating offensive performance.
This was the play where J.J. McCarthy bruised his throwing hand. Appears to hit Donovan Jackson's helmet on his follow-through.
McCarthy compared it today to getting "your hand slammed in a car door" and said he felt it the rest of the game, but he isn't concerned about his… pic.twitter.com/VmzU9Hp4mP
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 12, 2025
Of course, we can’t see inside McCarthy’s mind. But it couldn’t have been more evident that, in his fifth career start, he was thinking way too much about the fundamentals O’Connell has been drilling this season. McCarthy confirmed as much in Wednesday’s press conference, admitting he’s reworking his entire approach because he was taught to play the position differently than O’Connell’s system requires.
“You know, you’re rewiring neurological pathways,” McCarthy told reporters, “and that’s not something that happens overnight.”
Right now, he’s thinking about diagnosing the defense pre- and post-snap while thinking about how he’s supposed to throw the ball. That leads to indecisiveness — one of the worst traits a quarterback can display.
But that mindset isn’t limited to McCarthy. The entire team seems on edge, making routine plays difficult. McCarthy completed only 16 of 32 passes on Sunday, but PFF charged his teammates with six drops. His velocity and lack of touch on some of the throws made some of these drops harder than they should have been.
McCarthy had three other passes that hit his target's hand(s) but that I don't think I'd label as drops.
Could argue the second one to Thielen is a drop, but he had to fully extend and lay out for it. pic.twitter.com/HwWxtajOMb
— Will Ragatz (@WillRagatz) November 17, 2025
Still, Sunday wasn’t the only time Vikings receivers haven’t come down with the ball this year. Jefferson has dropped touchdown passes against the Ravens and Philadelphia Eagles that could have swung momentum. He has only two scores on the season. And even though neither catch would have been easy, they’re the kind of contested plays one would expect the league’s best receiver to make.
Cooper DeJean breaks up the potential Jefferson TD
PHIvsMIN on FOX/FOX Onehttps://t.co/HkKw7uXVnt pic.twitter.com/eOiLFjY6LI
— NFL (@NFL) October 19, 2025
On defense, no one has been more snakebitten than Jonathan Greenard, whose 32 pressures (per Next Gen Stats) lead the team. Still, he has only two sacks despite consistently being in position to finish plays. Things reached a new level of absurdity when Jared Goff — talented but hardly mobile — escaped a would-be sack from Greenard.
One of the many frustrating missed sacks from Greenard this year. pic.twitter.com/kR9FNunOWJ
— Skol Cole (@SkolSmith) November 20, 2025
The rest of the defense hasn’t fared much better. Minnesota’s nine takeaways rank 24th in the NFL, and five came in Week 3 against the Cincinnati Bengals. Its three interceptions through 10 games are the fewest in franchise history. Murphy has zero takeaways after re-signing this offseason.
Allen and Hargrave have combined for 42 pressures, but 13 came in Week 1 against the Bears, and their impact has been inconsistent since. Minnesota’s projected starting offensive line has yet to play a single snap together this year. And even O’Connell has been caught dropping F-bombs on the sideline.
Vikings HC Kevin O'Connell's reaction after the Bears long kick return with less than a minute left in the game. pic.twitter.com/oUCEgIZ1lE
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) November 16, 2025
Even when the Vikings seem to regain their footing, they can’t sustain momentum. They’ve yet to win back-to-back games this season, even after an upset win in Detroit felt like a brief return to the 2024 version of the team. Last Sunday, their poor coverage on the ensuing kickoff spoiled their go-ahead touchdown drive.
This roster isn’t as good as advertised. Maybe the Vikings could have saved some money on high-priced free agents to bring back Darnold or, more realistically, Daniel Jones. But would either have survived the ebbs and flows of this 2025 season before fans demanded McCarthy start anyway?
At this point, the season is almost a lost cause. A loss to either the Green Bay Packers or Seattle Seahawks in the coming weeks would likely end any realistic playoff hopes, even for the most optimistic fan. That means the primary rooting interest in the final seven games becomes McCarthy’s development, and whether he can learn to simply play quarterback again instead of overanalyzing every mechanic.
It might be easier for Vikings fans to watch games without expectations. But for a fanbase expecting a coaching staff and playoff-ready roster to carry a first-time starter, every miss, every sack, and every mistake becomes magnified — no longer a forgivable step in the development process.