FOXBOROUGH – The Patriots are in control of the AFC East.
After the Buffalo Bills (7-4) lost to the Houston Texans on Thursday, the Patriots (9-2) hold a two-game lead for the division crown. It would be quite the accomplishment to win the AFC East.
That hasn’t happened since 2019, which is the last season Tom Brady was in New England.
At this point, the Patriots are also in a position to set themselves up to host playoff games inside Gillette Stadium. Before they get to the postseason, they need to take care of business.
The Patriots don’t have the toughest schedule in the NFL, but that won’t mean much if they don’t win these games. With six games left in the regular season, Mike Vrabel’s team has a golden opportunity to pad the win column, win the division, and stay home for the playoffs.
That’s why they need to take care of business this weekend against the Cincinnati Bengals. There are some quarterback questions in this matchup, but this is a game the Patriots should win.
Here are five things to watch:
Joe Burrow or Joe Flacco?
We entered this week thinking the Patriots were going to face Bengals backup quarterback Joe Flacco. Instead, they dealt with uncertainty at the position.
After suffering a turf toe injury in Week 2, Joe Burrow missed the last two months. When he returned to practice on Nov. 10, Burrow said he was aiming to return to the field for the team’s Thanksgiving Day game against Baltimore. This week, Burrow was a full practice participant on Wednesday and Thursday. By Friday, he was listed as questionable for the game.
Is it gamesmanship? Did Cincinnati try to get the Patriots to prepare for multiple quarterbacks? Whatever the case, the defense needs to step up on Sunday – whether it’s Burrow or Flacco. If it’s Burrow, it’ll make for a tougher test.
Drake Maye
Whether he opposes Burrow or Flacco, Maye has a chance to dominate on Sunday. The Bengals head into this matchup with one of the worst defenses in the NFL. Cincinnati ranks last in scoring defense, allowing 33.4 points per game. They rank last in total defense, allowing 418.2 yards per game.
The Bengals have the worst run defense in the NFL (160.9 yards per game) and the second-worst pass defense in the league (257.3 yards per game). Cincinnati also has one of the worst pass rushes in the league, sacking quarterbacks on 2.8% of their dropbacks. They’ll also now have their best pass rusher in Trey Hendrickson (hip/pelvis).
Maye should light it up.
Christian Gonzalez vs. Tee Higgins
The Patriots won’t see Bengals All-Pro receiver Ja’Marr Chase on Sunday as he serves a 1-game suspension for spitting on a player last weekend. Chase leads the NFL in receptions and has 861 yards in 10 games this season. Without him, the Bengals’ top receiver becomes Tee Higgins.
Higgins has 35 receptions, 544 yards, and leads Cincinnati with 7 receiving touchdowns. It would be wise for the Patriots to match Christian Gonzalez up with Higgins on Sunday. If the All-Pro cornerback shuts Higgins down, Cincinnati’s next leading receiver is Andrei Iosivas (256 yards). Gonzalez has been good this season and has a chance to shut down another good receiver – even if Chase isn’t out there.
Defense without Milton Williams
The Patriots lost a big piece last week when Milton Williams suffered a high ankle sprain. The highest-paid player on the roster, Williams, is one of the best players on this team. A game-wrecking defensive tackle, he’s also a reason why the Patriots have the No. 1-ranked run defense in the league.
This marks the first test without him. The Patriots need Christian Barmore to step up with Williams out. The team will also rely on defensive tackle Khyiris Tonga, Joshua Farmer, Corey Durden, and Eric Gregory. The Bengals have a good running back in Chase Brown. We’ll see how the Patriots look without their best defensive lineman.
Red zone defense
The Patriots defense has been great in most categories. They’re No. 1 in run defense, No. 5 in scoring defense, No. 8 in total defense, and No. 17 in pass defense. One area that continues to hurt them is in the red zone. This season, the Patriots rank 31st in red zone defense. They’re allowing teams to score touchdowns 72% of the time they get inside the 20-yard line.
The Bengals rank 14th in red zone offense. If the Patriots want to continue to win on the road, their defense needs to be better in the red zone. It’s fine to bend, but they’ve broken too much inside the 20-yard line.
Prediction: Patriots 30, Bengals 20
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