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“The Breaks Haven’t Gone Their Way”: Why the Chiefs Are Contenders Despite 5-5 Record

The Kansas City Chiefs may be sitting at an unfamiliar .500 mark, but the road to the postseason remains wide open for a team that has made consistency its calling card. Experience, leadership, and metrics all suggest this is not the end of the dynasty but rather another test along the way.

The reigning AFC power has faced moments of frustration throughout 2025, often undone by self-inflicted mistakes rather than talent deficiencies. Kansas City ranks among the league’s top teams in both scoring margin and total efficiency, proof that the foundation built by Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid remains unchanged.

Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, NFL

Oct 27, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) passes the ball against the Washington Commanders during the first quarter of the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

While their 5-5 record seems ordinary, an underlying truth tells a different story: the Chiefs have outgained opponents and controlled most games but have faltered late, losing each of their one-score contests. That inability to close hasn’t shaken Reid’s belief in his group.

His message to the roster has been simple, which is cut down on penalties, execute cleanly, and trust the process that has delivered multiple Super Bowl trips. The players have responded with confidence, knowing that few teams can match their ceiling when playing disciplined football. The difference between mediocrity and dominance has come down to key plays in the final minutes, something history suggests Kansas City will soon correct.

NFL Analysis Explains Why Kansas City Chiefs Remain Contenders Despite 5-5 Record

Kansas City Chiefs, Andy Reid, NFL

Sep 28, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid watches team warm ups against the Baltimore Ravens prior to a game during the game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Denny Medley-Imagn Images

Even with all their struggles, Kansas City remains one of the league’s contenders this season. This is detailed more in an analysis by Brad Gagnon for Bleacher Report.

Case for Contender: They’re a juggernaut, having made five of the last six Super Bowls thanks to their future Hall of Fame coach-quarterback combo. And despite a rough start to 2025, they remain in the thick of things with a fairly soft schedule down the stretch.

Verdict: Contender. The Chiefs have the third-best scoring margin (plus-73) in the conference, as they rank in the top 10 in terms of both scoring offense and defense. The breaks haven’t gone their way, but don’t be surprised if they finish out the schedule 6-1 or 7-0.

The betting markets continue to favor the Mahomes-led team in every remaining game. Their playoff probability remains strong, aided by a manageable schedule and the tiebreak opportunities that await them in pivotal conference matchups. Teams such as the Chargers and Jaguars, currently ahead in the standings, will face tougher opponents, giving Kansas City ample opportunity to surge.

Kansas City Chiefs, Patrick Mahomes, NFL

Oct 19, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (15) during warmups prior to a game against the Las Vegas Raiders at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

Across the AFC, few trust anyone more than Mahomes when December rolls around. Every loss feels magnified, but every season under his leadership has reminded the league that this team thrives when challenged.

Despite the rough start, Kansas City’s mix of pedigree and production keeps them in familiar territory as legitimate contenders. The breaks may not have gone their way so far, but history says the Chiefs are far from finished writing their postseason story.

Kansas City Chiefs, Andy Reid, NFL

Sep 14, 2025; Kansas City, Missouri, USA; Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid arrives prior to the game against the Philadelphia Eagles at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images

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