Caleb Williams is more than halfway through his first season in Ben Johnson’s offense, and the partnership has already turned into one of the cleanest, most quarterback-friendly operations in the league. Johnson’s scheme is doing exactly what Chicago hoped it would—creating space, clarity, and rhythm for a rookie passer with elite natural talent. But this week brings a defense built to break rhythm before it even starts: the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Williams has carved out early success by throwing to open receivers at a rate no one else can match. He currently owns the lowest tight-window percentage in the NFL (10.5%) and the highest wide-open percentage (30.2%) among all qualified quarterbacks. When Chicago wins with spacing and timing, Williams is nearly automatic. Twelve of his thirteen touchdown passes have gone to open or wide-open targets, tying him with Josh Allen and Aaron Rodgers for the most such scores this season. It’s the perfect formula for a young quarterback—keep it clean, keep it simple, keep him firing in rhythm.
But Pittsburgh has a way of ruining rhythm for even the most seasoned players. While their total pressure rate sits near league average at 34.1%, the Steelers thrive in one category that matters most against Chicago: quick pressure. They disrupt quarterbacks in under 2.5 seconds at a 17.2% rate, one of the best marks in the NFL. Their average time to pressure is 2.54 seconds, the fastest in the league, and defensive end Nick Herbig is emerging as one of the NFL’s most effective quick disruptors.
That combination is the exact kind of stress point that could push Williams into territory he hasn’t had to live in—tight windows, faster reads, and more contested throws. Chicago’s offense helps its quarterback by designing separation. Pittsburgh’s defense hurts that plan by speeding up the clock before receivers can break open.
For the Bears, the data paints a double-edged sword. On one hand, they’ve built an offense where Williams rarely has to force the ball, and it’s working brilliantly. On the other hand, any defense that wins fast can throw off the timing and spacing that make Johnson’s scheme hum. If the Steelers collapse the pocket early, Williams may have to make throws he hasn’t had to make often this year.
For Pittsburgh, the numbers are just as mixed. Their strength matches up perfectly with what Chicago struggles with—quick disruption that narrows throwing windows. But if they don’t win immediately, their average overall pressure rate means Williams could find plenty of the open receivers he’s been hitting all season. One missed step, one late get-off, one failed stunt, and Chicago’s offense is capable of striking in chunks.
This game becomes a test of who controls the first 2.5 seconds. If Williams gets to play on schedule, Chicago holds a major edge. If Pittsburgh speeds him up, they can drag him into the tight-window world he’s mostly avoided so far. Something has to give, and whichever side dictates the pace early in the down will likely dictate the flow of the game.