With an impressive second season, quarterback Drake Maye has the Patriots in the running for the top playoff seed in the AFC.
With an impressive second season, quarterback Drake Maye has the Patriots in the running for the top playoff seed in the AFC.Danielle Parhizkaran/Globe Staff
The Patriots are in the AFC playoff race for the first time since 2022, so we can dust off an old saying that was popular during the glory days: The NFL season starts after Thanksgiving.
With the holiday approaching Thursday, and the Patriots stunningly having a shot at the No. 1 seed, let’s break down the AFC playoff race, with 10 teams realistically competing for seven spots (sorry, Dolphins):
1. Broncos (9-2). On their bye this week, the Broncos have an 82 percent chance to win the AFC West and 26 percent to get the No. 1 seed, per Next Gen Stats. The Broncos currently control the No. 1 seed over the Patriots because of the first tiebreaker, conference record — 6-2 to 5-2, though that will even out.
But the Broncos should remain formidable — they have the No. 3 defense, and the 10th-easiest remaining schedule, with upcoming games against the Commanders and Raiders, and three of their final four games at home (Packers, Jaguars, and Chargers). The big test is at Kansas City in Week 17.
2. Patriots (9-2). Despite sitting at No. 2, the Patriots entered Week 12 with the best odds to earn the No. 1 seed (31 percent) per Next Gen, while holding a 97 percent chance to make the playoffs and 76 percent to win the AFC East. That’s because the Patriots have the second-easiest remaining schedule (.365), with games against the 3-7 Bengals, 2-9 Giants, 2-8 Jets and 4-7 Dolphins.
If they can avoid a letdown game and split the Ravens/Bills games in Weeks 15-16, the Patriots look good for 14 wins and a realistic shot at No. 1. The Patriots may be able to lose the Week 15 game to Buffalo and still win the division.
3. Colts (8-2). The Colts might be the most complete team of the three competing for the No. 1 seed. But they have only a 21 percent chance because they’ve got the toughest road — the fourth-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL (.589). They don’t get a week off over the final seven, with home-and-homes with the Jaguars and Texans, a home game against the 49ers, and games at the Chiefs (Sunday) and Seahawks.
It’s hard to imagine the Colts emerge with as many wins as the Patriots and Broncos with that gauntlet, and they are no cinch to even win the AFC South, with just a two-game lead over the Texans and Jaguars.
4. Steelers (6-4). They have led the AFC North all season, yet have only a 31 percent chance to win it. The computers don’t seem to believe in the Steelers’ 28th-ranked offense and defense (based on yardage), their 3-3 record over their last six, or their remaining schedule, starting Sunday at the Bears. The Steelers also still have both games against the Ravens, and dates with the Bills, Lions, and Browns, the latter two on the road.
The Week 18 Ravens-Steelers game in Pittsburgh could be win-or-go-home if Aaron Rodgers and his broken left wrist can keep the Steelers afloat.
5. Chargers (7-4): They need their bye this week in the worst way. They’re coming off a 35-6 loss to the Jaguars. They are crushed by injuries, especially on the offensive line. And they have the seventh-hardest remaining schedule (.556), with home dates against the Eagles and Texans and road dates with the Chiefs and Broncos. The Chargers have a 61 percent chance to make the playoffs, but that feels too high.
6. Bills (7-4): They suffered a terrible loss to the Texans on Thursday to drop two games behind the Patriots in the division and from fifth to sixth in the conference. The Bills are just 3-4 in their last seven, and the offense has committed nine turnovers over the last three weeks. They have winnable games against the Bengals and Browns, and finishing with the Jets at home in Week 18 is a gift, but they also play the Steelers, Patriots, and Eagles, the first two on the road. The Bills are just 2-3 on the road this year.
7. Jaguars (6-4): Hard to get a read on the Jaguars, who have been on both sides of blowouts. The Jaguars have two games left with the Colts to determine the AFC South, and a tough challenge at Denver in Week 16. But they already have wins over the Chiefs and Chargers, and the fifth-easiest remaining schedule (.451), with two games against the Titans and one each with the Cardinals and Jets. But getting the Titans in Week 18 might help them sneak into the playoffs.
8. Texans (6-5): Watch out for this team, which has overcome an 0-3 start, has the NFL’s No. 1 defense, and is getting C.J. Stroud (concussion) back soon. The Texans have the eighth-hardest remaining schedule, starting the next two weeks with at Colts and at Chiefs, and a closing stretch of at Chargers and vs. Colts. But the Texans are still alive for the AFC South, and with that defense, they are the official “team no one wants to play.”
9. Chiefs (5-5): Don’t count them out yet, with a forgiving final stretch of at Titans, vs. Broncos, and at Raiders. But the Chiefs first have big games against the Colts, Cowboys, Texans, and Chargers. Next Gen has the Chiefs at 44 percent to make the playoffs, but they have been sputtering on offense and inconsistent all season. For tiebreaker purposes, the Chiefs have the win over the Ravens, but lost to the Jaguars.
10. Ravens (5-5): A team that was 1-5 a month ago now has a 71 percent chance to make the playoffs and 68 percent to win the AFC North, per Next Gen. The defense has turned it around, with five straight games allowing fewer than 20 points, and the Ravens should keep it rolling the next three weeks, with home games against the Jets, Bengals, and Steelers. The closing stretch of Patriots, Packers, and Steelers, the last two on the road, should determine their fate. And for tiebreakers, the Ravens have already lost to the Bills, Chiefs, and Texans.
EXPLOSIVE OFFENSES
Patriots among teams
stretching the field
In response to last week’s column about Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford and his MVP-caliber season, one reader argued that Stafford has been padding his stats with a lot of short touchdown passes.
I looked it up on Pro Football Reference, and sure enough, Stafford is lapping the field. From the 3-yard line and closer, Stafford has thrown eight touchdowns, three more than any other quarterback. From the 1-yard line, Stafford has thrown five touchdowns, while no other QB has more than two. Drake Maye, by comparison, has four touchdown passes from the 3-yard line or closer, and two from the 1. So, yes, an argument can be made that Stafford pads his stats with short touchdown passes.
Researching this got me wondering — which offenses score the most explosive touchdowns, and which ones need to grind out drives to punch the ball in?
By average distance, the Buccaneers are the most explosive, averaging 20.4 yards on their offensive touchdowns (they also allow a league-high 20.7 yards on defensive touchdowns. Bucs games are fun). They are followed by the Saints (20.1 yards), Eagles (17.9 yards), Patriots (17.4 yards), and Dolphins (17.1 yards). The league average touchdown length is 13.4 yards.
The least explosive offenses: Titans (3.9 yards), Cardinals (5.7 yards), Panthers (7.9 yards), Packers (8.2 yards), and Chiefs (8.8 yards).
By another measure, the Bills are most explosive, with 14 touchdowns of 20-plus yards (including Thursday night). The Buccaneers have 12 and the Ravens have 11. On the opposite end, the Titans and Packers have one touchdown of 20-plus yards, and the Vikings and Browns have two.
An argument could also be made that the Patriots have the most explosive offense. Their 32 offensive touchdowns rank fifth, and among the top 14 scoring offenses, the Patriots score the longest average touchdowns (17.4 yards). The Rams, by comparison, rank 21st in length of touchdown (12.2 yards).
ETC.
Loss to Patriots
Panthers’ turning point
The Panthers didn’t bring much fight in Week 4 when they got dismantled by the Patriots, 42-13. But coach Dave Canales did not let the result or their 1-3 record discourage him.
“I know who our guys are,” Canales said after the game. “I know they’re going to continue to punch, they’re going to continue to fight all the way through it.”
The Panthers have gone 5-2 since that Patriots loss, with impressive wins over the Cowboys and Packers and an overtime win over the Falcons last week in which Bryce Young set a franchise record with 448 passing yards while playing through an ankle injury.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) picked apart the Falcons defense last week, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns.
Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) picked apart the Falcons defense last week, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns.Danny Karnik/Associated Press
It’s an impressive stretch for the Panthers considering Young, the No. 1 pick in 2023, is still struggling — Sunday was just his second game with more than 200 passing yards all season, and he ranks 27th out of 34 QBs in passer rating (86.0). Rico Dowdle has led the NFL in rushing yards since Week 4 (750), and rookie receiver Tetairoa McMillan has been terrific, with 748 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
The Panthers have missed the playoffs the last seven seasons, tied with the Falcons for the second-longest drought behind the Jets (14 seasons). But the 6-5 Panthers are just a half-game behind the 6-4 Buccaneers for the NFC South lead, and one game behind the 7-4 49ers for the final wild-card spot. The Panthers play at the 49ers on Monday night.
“I love the physical nature that we play with,” Canales said. “I’m proud of the effort. I have been for over a year and a half now. Our guys just continue to step up and say, this is our team, let’s go make this thing happen.”
Patriots-Bengals notes
A few notes in advance of Sunday’s Patriots-Bengals game:
▪ Bengals coach Zac Taylor has been impressed with the Patriots’ 9-2 record and eight-game win streak despite ranking just 17th in takeaways. The Patriots have 12 this year and just one in the last three games, and for the season are net-zero on turnovers.
“They do the simple things really well,” Taylor said. “They’ve won eight in a row, so you normally look at the turnover battle and think, ‘OK, they’re dominating,’ They’re not — they’re zero, it’s even for them. So that’s an impressive way to win eight in a row. That tells you that they’re playing really sound football in all three phases.”
▪ Drake Maye leads the NFL with 2,836 passing yards because of consistency. Maye hasn’t thrown for 300 yards this year, but has at least 200 in all 11 games. Taylor also highlighted Maye’s 20 touchdowns against five interceptions.
“A 4-1 touchdown to interception is really impressive considering he’s in his second year, new coaching staff,” Taylor said. “He’s doing everything right. Leading the team to eight straight wins is really impressive.”
▪ The Patriots are the only undefeated team on the road this season (5-0). Ten teams in NFL history have gone 8-0 on the road, including the 2007 and 2016 Patriots.
▪ Joe Flacco has been a Bengals rival for most of his career, facing them 22 times over 13 seasons with the Ravens and Browns. He has been a Bengal for six weeks now, and it still takes getting used to.
“Just with the little ‘Who Deys’ on the side of the road and things like that,” he said. “I’m not quite sure how to respond yet. I just feel a little funny saying it. But I’m getting there.”
Falcons quarterback Michael Penix is out for the year after injuring his knee in last week's loss to the Panthers.
Falcons quarterback Michael Penix is out for the year after injuring his knee in last week's loss to the Panthers.Danny Karnik/Associated Press
Falcons
Not to pile on the Falcons, 3-7 entering Sunday’s game against the Saints, but it’s hard to find a franchise that has whiffed as spectacularly the last two years.
They spent $100 million on Kirk Cousins and the No. 8 pick in 2024 on Michael Penix, and still don’t have a quarterback. Cousins, 37, got benched last year and is probably done as a full-time starter, while Penix struggled this year and has yet another knee injury that clouds his future.
The Falcons are also wasting first-round picks. In April they traded their 2026 first-round pick to the Rams for the 26th pick and drafted pass rusher James Pearce. But Pearce has just 2½ sacks while playing 51 percent of snaps, and that future first-rounder to the Rams is currently the No. 8 pick.
The Falcons are 11-16 the past two years, and general manager Terry Fontenot and coach Raheem Morris may not want to get too comfortable.
“Our job is winning, and that’s what we’re supposed to do,” Morris acknowledged.
Extra points
The NFL appears to be working two weeks ahead on its schedule, adjusting Week 14 this past week to move Bears-Packers to 4:25 p.m. and Bills-Bengals to 1 p.m. That means we could be two weeks away from knowing whether Patriots-Ravens in Week 16 will be flexed from 1 p.m. to 8:20 p.m., which seems likely given the current “Sunday Night Football” matchup is Bengals-Dolphins. NFL rules state that flex decisions for SNF only have to come with six days notice in Weeks 14-17 … Browns receiver Jerry Jeudy on rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders getting his first start Sunday against the Raiders: “He’s consistently grown.” End of answer. Feel the excitement … Got to love CeeDee Lamb’s honesty and priorities. He had no problem admitting that he and George Pickens were benched to start last week’s game in Las Vegas because they went out for dinner and drinks at the Red Rock Casino. But do not accuse Lamb of throwing up from drinking too much. “That’s a disrespect to even suggest that. I know how to hold my liquor,” he said … Defensive tackle Quinnen Williams had five QB hits and 1.5 sacks in his first game for the Cowboys since being traded from the Jets … Josh Allen became the first quarterback since the Vikings’ Tommy Kramer in 1986 to account for six touchdowns in one game and none the next. … Can’t say I had “Chiefs special teams coordinator clapping back at President Trump” on my Bingo card, but there Dave Toub was last week, defending the NFL’s dynamic kickoff against Trump’s criticisms. “He doesn’t even know what he’s looking at,” Toub said. “He has no idea what’s going on with the kickoff rule. So, I mean, I take that for what it’s worth. And I hope he hears it.” … It’s Discipline Season in the NFL. The Bills benched receiver Keon Coleman for the second straight game Thursday, though it’s unclear if it’s for the same late meeting that caused the first benching. And the Giants benched rookie pass rusher Abdul Carter to start last week’s game against the Packers because he missed a team walk-through … The Raiders are 2-8, and opposing coaches are taking pity on coach Pete Carroll. Cowboys coach Brian Schottenheimer took a knee outside the two-minute warning in last week’s 33-16 win even though he couldn’t run out the clock. The Chiefs’ Andy Reid did the same a month ago in a 31-0 win.
Ben Volin can be reached at ben.volin@globe.com.