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Chicago Bears and Pittsburgh Steelers Week 12: Who wins and why

The uniforms are black and yellow, not green and cheesy yellow.

Yet, all the talk this week in Chicago about Aaron Rodgers facing the Bears almost makes it seem like they're facing their rivals.

Instead, it's a 6-4 team leading the AFC North. The 7-3 Bears can't even be sure it's going to be Rodgers or Mason Rudolph, either, because of the broken bone in the Pittsburgh starter's left wrist.

“So, in particular, you're studying the scheme and then you're preparing for the scheme, and yet you understand how each quarterback likes to operate," Bears defensive coordinator Dennis Allen said. "There's plenty of tape on Mason Rudolph and obviously plenty of tape on Aaron too. So, we've spent a lot of time on it.”

💻 @TomPelissero

Aaron Rodgers is part-owner of the team he's playing on Sunday but will he actually be out there?#NFL #HereWeGo pic.twitter.com/tFEyxvWP5m

— Rich Eisen Show (@RichEisenShow) November 21, 2025

If it's Rodgers, they're facing a legendary quarterback, but it's no longer part of Bears-Packers lore.

Two teams seemingly heading in different directions square off, the Bears with seven wins in eight games and the Steelers once leading the Ravens in their division by 3 1/2 games, but now only by one game.

It's the Bears and Steelers on the lakefront Sunday at noon, here's who wins and why.

.@DariusJButler breaks down how the Bears coverage concepts have generated a league leading 15 INTs#DaBears

Live on ESPN2 & Streaming on ESPN+@GregCosell | @DariusJButler | Sal Paolantonio pic.twitter.com/LzEaAvcJ0f

— NFL Matchup on ESPN (@NFLMatchup) November 22, 2025

The Steelers' struggling defense has not forgotten how to defend the run, ranking 12th against the run thanks to Cam Heyward and Keeanu Benton, as well as linebacker Patrick Queen. They've held their last four opponents to 115 yards rushing or less, and only one, the Bengals, went over that in the last seven games. The Bears running game, with D'Andre Swift and Kyle Monangai, ranks second in the league and sixth in yards per carry and has reached 140 yards in five of the last six games. The best Bears chances appear to be rather direct runs instead of taking it wide against a group of dynamic edge defenders. No Edge.

RB performance: Rush attempts vs explosive runs

Jonathan Taylor = ELITE volume and explosive plays

D'Andre Swift getting explosive plays on small volume

Zach Charbonnet that is gross pic.twitter.com/FmmlpsfXrP

— Start Sit 'Em - Fantasy Football (@StartSitEmFF) November 12, 2025

Caleb Williams can't afford another week of inaccurate passing but if he is able to properly target Rome Odunze, Colston Loveland, DJ Moore and the rest, he could do real damage. The Steelers have the NFL's worst pass defense, although it does toughen near the goal line. They allowed over 300 yards passing in four out of five games, but the last two were below 200. T.J. Watt and their edge rushers do make it tough on passers if they hold the ball too long. Edge to Bears

The Bears run defense is ranked 25th in the NFL allowing 133.3 YPG. I don't think it takes a rocket scientist to figure out that the Steelers need to pound the rock on Sunday. pic.twitter.com/ti0Tdtx7yx

— Billy Hartford (@CamHeywardFan) November 21, 2025

It's rare when Pittsburgh's running game has been ranked this low (22nd) and leading rusher Jaylen Warren has been trying to work through an ankle injury. Kenneth Gainwell has been more of a receiving threat and third-down back. The Bears have been inconsistent against the run, though, shining at times and looking awful in other games and ranking 25th overall. With all three starting linebackers out injured, the Steelers should be able to be more effective than in some of their recent efforts. No Edge

Bears defense is #1 in turnovers while missing their All-Pro CB, a top-3 slot corner, and their starting MLB.

Ben Johnson was right. Chicago’s best ball is coming in January. pic.twitter.com/iAeVyluQoC

— Bears Facts (@DaBearsTakeOver) November 20, 2025

Not having their linebackers is a blow for the Bears, especially Tremaine Edmunds because he has four interceptions. Shaking off rust might be required. Lack of starting linebackers makes tight end an easy place for Rodgers to throw. The pass rush has been only average overall with 16 sacks and Edmunds' height and reach have prevented many completions. Rodgers hasn't been the deep passer he was in Green Bay, averaging only 6.8 yards per attempt, but DK Metcalf has been about his only consistent target. This could be a much tougher Bears secondary if Jaylon Johnson and Kyler Gordon are back, but they haven't played recently. Edge to Steelers

10, they will utilize their TE’s a lot Sunday and one of them is a UNICORN!! BEAR DOWN!! https://t.co/q7dYNXljBG

— Brian Hassett (@coachHassett15) November 22, 2025

The Bears rate a bit better in the return game, while Chris Boswell has long been one of the league's better field goal kickers with just three misses this season. Devin Duvernay and Bears returners average 1.1 more yards both on kick and punt returns than the Steelers. Former Bears training camp punter Corliss Waitman is the Steelers' punter, and he's averaged 0.8 yards less per punt than Tory Taylor, but the Bears are much less effective covering punts, so Taylor's punts are 4.9 yards less net than Pittsburgh's. No Edge

The Piano Man: Corliss Waitman 🎹 #SteelersStyle pic.twitter.com/lq9ZCvLK8k

— Pittsburgh Steelers (@steelers) October 11, 2025

Mike Tomlin's ability to keep the Steelers competitive over the years is lauded but is this valuable when there usually are two bottom feeders from Ohio in the division every year? The true measure is that even though they manage to get into the playoffs, they've not won a playoff game in a decade. Ben Johnson has the Bears situated where they want to be against weaker competition with the true test yet to come. No Edge

Mike Tomlin “The Master Motivator” and “Defensive Specialist” can’t stop a nose bleed in the 1st half of a playoff game

2024 Baltimore 21-0

2023 Buffalo 21-0

2021 Kansas City 21-7

2020 Cleveland 28-0

2017 Jacksonville 21-0

He can’t GTFO out of Pittsburgh fast enough pic.twitter.com/ylImKeP52z

— Frank Michael Smith (@frankmikesmith) January 12, 2025

The Steelers are in desperation mode as Baltimore approaches closer and two games with the Ravens still loom. Getting in as a wild card from the AFC North doesn't seem as likely this year. The Bears are 7.5 points better on average and 3-1 when playing at home. Pittsburgh is 2-2 on the road, the last one a 15-point loss to the Chargers. No Edge

Everyone — fans, media, even the front office — knew the Steelers needed another WR....

But instead of addressing it at the deadline, they sat on their hands and hoped for the best.

Now we’re seeing the result of that mistake play out in real time.#NFL #Steelers pic.twitter.com/EGl8d4lCRz

— The Standard (@TheStandard412) November 10, 2025

DraftKings line: Bears by 2 1/2. Over/under: 43 1/2

A different team, but Rodgers has been doing late-game heroics since Caleb Williams was in second grade, and ownership rights should transfer despite age or team affiliation.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.

Ben Johnson has #DaBears on a mission. Good, better, best!

pic.twitter.com/yTo6aBorkT

— Ben Devine (@Chicago_NFL) November 21, 2025

X: BearsOnSI

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