As Will Lutz’s field goal went through the uprights in the final seconds last Sunday, it created a grim possibility for the Kansas City Chiefs. The team that has dominated the AFC over the past six years and has represented the conference in five of the past six Super Bowls is now in legitimate trouble of missing the 2025 postseason altogether. This isn’t merely doom and gloom following a frustrating loss; missing the playoffs is a very real possibility for K.C.
There were plenty of realistic outcomes for the 2025 Chiefs before this season. Could they win the Super Bowl? Of course, they’ve done that three times over the past six years. Could they make the Super Bowl? It’s surprising when they don’t at this point. Could they lose in the AFC Championship Game? Sure, that would be disappointing, but other perennial AFC contenders such as the Bills and Ravens need to get over the hump at some point. Could they go one-and-done? That would be a shocking end to the season, but even great teams have early exits from time to time.
The Patriots had three winless playoff runs during the Bill Belichick–Tom Brady era. John Elway and the Broncos went one-and-done to the Jaguars in their second year of existence. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers went 15-1, only to lose their first game to a nine-win Giants team. Early and embarrassing playoff exits happen. But missing the tournament altogether? Not even the staunchest doubters of the Chiefs could have seen that coming. Yet a loss to the Colts on Sunday would all but solidify that fate.
One more loss could turn a rough stretch into a full-blown crisis for a team long used to cruising through the AFC.
So how did the Chiefs get here? For starters, a lack of discipline and attention to detail has been a theme all season. In their losses to the Chargers, Jaguars, and Broncos, the Chiefs committed 33 combined penalties. In total, they’ve committed 69 penalties on the season—11 more than their opponents. On top of their penalty issues, the special teams unit has underachieved, and that is putting it kindly. Harrison Butker is in the midst of the worst season of his career, having missed three field goals and four extra points. He has also been penalized for kickoffs going out of bounds, which proved costly in losses to Jacksonville and Denver. He even had an extra point blocked last Sunday, costing the Chiefs a point in a game they lost by three.
The Chiefs’ biggest stars making mistakes in pivotal moments have also played a major role. In four of their five losses, one of Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, or Chris Jones made a crucial mistake that heavily contributed to the outcome.
In Week 1 against the Chargers, Jones lost contain on third and long, allowing Justin Herbert to scramble for a game-sealing first down. In Week 2 against Philadelphia, Kelce dropped a would-be touchdown that deflected into the hands of rookie safety Andrew Makuba. In Jacksonville, Mahomes threw a 99-yard pick-six to Devin Lloyd on a drive in prime scoring position. On Sunday, Mahomes missed a wide-open Xavier Worthy for a touchdown before tossing a mind-numbing red-zone interception to rookie cornerback Jahdae Barron with the game tied 6-6.
If the Chiefs’ Hall of Fame pillars simply executed in these moments, the season would look dramatically different. Instead, they now have little to no margin for error and must treat the rest of the regular season like playoff games.
That brings us to Sunday’s matchup against an 8-2 Colts team coming off their bye. Indianapolis boasts the league’s highest-scoring offense, led by Jonathan Taylor. They’re also extremely well-coached under Shane Steichen, one of the league’s brightest offensive minds, while defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has consistently given Kansas City’s offense problems.
The objective for the Chiefs is simple: win and move to 6-5, regaining momentum to stay alive in the AFC playoff race. It would also represent their best win of the season, as they have yet to beat a team currently in the playoff picture. Kansas City has beaten just one team with a winning record all year—a 30-17 home win over the 6-4 Detroit Lions. Playing at Arrowhead for the first time in nearly a month could help, too, as the Chiefs are 4-1 at home this season.
While a win would lift morale for both the team and the fanbase, the ramifications of a loss are even greater. If the Chiefs fall to 5-6, they would likely need to run the table to reach the postseason. Given the depth of the AFC, even 10 wins might not be enough. The Chiefs are also losing ground on other Wild Card contenders. The Bills, Chargers, and Jaguars—all teams the Chiefs have lost to—currently hold the fifth through seventh seeds. The Texans sit ahead of them as well, now 6-5 after beating Buffalo on Thursday night. The Ravens, who are also fighting to stay afloat, have won four straight and host a punchless Jets team on Sunday. Barring an upset, Baltimore is poised to hit six wins. With both Houston and, likely, Baltimore winning, a Chiefs loss would drop them to tenth in the AFC, just one spot ahead of the Miami Dolphins.
Beyond the standings, the optics of losing a third straight game are troubling and could lead to players checking out. While the Colts are the toughest team remaining on the schedule, the rest of the slate is no cakewalk. Road contests against the Titans and Raiders are tricky. Home games against the Chargers and Broncos feature opponents who have already beaten them. The Texans, who own the NFL’s best defense, also come to Arrowhead. And the Chiefs will spend Thanksgiving in Dallas facing a Cowboys team averaging 35.3 points per game at home. Combined with Kansas City’s struggles away from home, it’s a recipe for further trouble.
Sunday’s matchup against Indianapolis is the closest thing to a “must-win” regular-season game the Chiefs have had in the Patrick Mahomes era. A victory could spark a late-season run. A loss could leave Chiefs fans reading mock drafts before Christmas.
By Sunday afternoon, the outlook for the 2025 Chiefs will be either regained optimism or arguably the lowest point since their infamous 2012 season. Chiefs fans are certainly anxious to find out.