After taking their first loss within the division in Week 10 to the Los Angeles Rams, thus splitting the season series, the San Francisco 49ers bounced back beautifully in Week 11 with an [emphatic 41-22 victory](https://ninernoise.com/49ers-only-needed-game-send-nfc-west-rival-spiraling-control) over the Arizona Cardinals.
With the win this past Sunday afternoon, the Niners improved to 7-4 on the season. And with the Detroit Lions dropping to 6-4 on Sunday night with an ugly loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, the Niners, who'd been knocked out of the top seven in the conference standings for the first time all year after losing to Los Angeles, [made their way](https://ninernoise.com/updated-nfc-playoff-picture-proves-importance-49ers-win-cardinals) back into that top seven in the NFC playoff picture, which currently breaks down like this.
1. **Philadelphia Eagles (8-2, 1st NFC East)**
2. **Los Angeles Rams (8-2, 1st NFC West)**
3. **Chicago Bears (7-3, 1st NFC North)**
4. **Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-4, 1st NFC South)**
5. **Seattle Seahawks (7-3, 2nd NFC West)**
6. **Green Bay Packers (6-3-1, 2nd NFC North)**
7. **San Francisco 49ers (7-4, 3rd NFC West)**
8. Detroit Lions (6-4, 3rd NFC North)
9. Carolina Panthers (6-5, 2nd NFC South)
10. Dallas Cowboys (4-5-1, 2nd NFC East)
11. Minnesota Vikings (4-6, 4th NFC North)
12. Arizona Cardinals (3-7, 4th NFC West)
13. Atlanta Falcons (3-7, 3rd NFC South)
14. Washington Commanders (3-8, 3rd NFC East)
15. New Orleans Saints (2-8, 4th NFC South)
16. New York Giants (2-9, 4th NFC East)
As you can see, the 49ers now sit in the final wild-card slot at No. 7, holding a half-game lead over the Lions and a full one-game lead over the Carolina Panthers. Of course, the Niners can increase their advantage over the Panthers this week on their own, as the two clubs are set to close out the Week 12 slate on _Monday Night Football_.
And since we have that extra day before San Francisco takes the field, we here at Niner Noise thought it might be fun to take that extra time to see precisely when Kyle Shanahan & Co. can clinch a playoff spot.
The 49ers could clinch a wild-card spot as early as Week 15
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Now, if we go with the most literal version of the "if everything goes right" scenario and apply it _only_ to San Francisco clinching the final wild-card slot and nothing else, the answer would be Week 15. For this to play out, the Niners simply need to win their next three games to get to 10-4. Remember, they have a Week 14 bye. In addition, San Francisco would need the Lions to lose their next four, the Panthers to lose their next three (they have the same Week 14 bye), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to lose their next four. The reason the Bucs are included is that while they currently sit atop the NFC South, they could later fall into the wild-card race.
With the 49ers at 10-4 and the Lions, Panthers, and Bucs all at 6-8, that's a four-game lead on each with three weeks to play, thus putting San Francisco into the postseason. So, that's the quickest path.
The problem with that scenario, however, is that the Niners wouldn't want all three teams to lose all of their games over the next few weeks, as all three have dates in this stretch with the NFC West-leading Rams, starting with the Bucs this Sunday night, followed by the Panthers in Week 13, and then the Lions in Week 15.
Pretty wild, right?
The Niners could win the NFC West as early as Week 16
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Now, let's scrap everything we just did and see how quickly the 49ers can win the NFC West, again going with the most literal version of "if everything goes right."
In this scenario, the Niners obviously still don't lose any game moving forward. And over the next four weeks, neither the Rams nor the Seahawks win any of their games. So, at this point, we've got San Francisco at 10-4, Los Angeles at 8-6, and Seattle at 7-7 at the end of Week 15.
In Week 16, the Seahawks host the Rams on _Thursday Night Football_, and if Seattle wins, that puts both teams at 8-7. So, when the 49ers would take down the Indianapolis Colts to close out the week on _Monday Night Football_, they would improve to 11-4, thus San Francisco a three-game lead on both Los Angeles and Seattle with two weeks to play. So, there you have it; the 49ers can win the NFC West in Week 16.
None of this is going to happen, of course, but it's still fun to think about.