GREEN BAY, Wis. – The Green Bay Packers are as close to first place in the NFC North as they are to being out of the NFC playoff race altogether.
To win the division, they must beat the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday to set up showdowns against the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving and the Chicago Bears the following Sunday.
Here are three reasons why the Packers will enjoy some purple reign over the Vikings and build momentum into the next biggest games of the season.
Most games boil down to the quarterbacks. Which is going to make the most plays? Through 10 games, Jordan Love gives the Packers an unquestioned advantage for this game.
The Vikings have to be wondering if they screwed up the most important position in sports. Last year, Sam Darnold finished fifth in passer rating, fifth in passing yards, fifth in touchdowns and sixth in yards per attempt to help them go 14-3. They let him go in free agency, though, to hand the keys to the machine to J.J. McCarthy, last year’s first-round pick.
While Darnold has the Seahawks in the running for homefield advantage by ranking fifth in passer rating once again, McCarthy is having a dismal first season as Minnesota will stumble into Lambeau Field with a 4-6 record. He is last in the NFL with a 52.9 completion percentage. The league median is 66.4 percent. Darnold is second at 70.2 percent. Love is 10th at 67.7 percent.
Over the last decade, only the Colts’ Anthony Richardson last year and the Bills’ Josh Allen as a rookie in 2018 finished with a lower completion percentage. Richardson is an all-time bust; Allen has a chance to be an all-time star. So, after just five starts, it’s too soon to write off McCarthy.
“I think he’s a young, developing quarterback, and I think it’s a matter of time for him. I just hope the time’s not this week,” coach Matt LaFleur said.
In his first career start, he completed 65.0 percent of his passes in a 27-24 win against the Bears at Soldier field in Week 1. In his three games since returning from an ankle injury, he’s completed 51.5 percent of his passes. In the rematch against the Bears last week, he was just 16-of-32 for 150 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions.
He’s thrown an interception in each of his five starts and is the only starter with more interceptions (eight) than touchdowns (six). He is last in the NFL in turnover-worthy play percentage, according to Pro Football Focus.
“He’s a young quarterback still, so he has his fair share of mistakes here and there,” safety Xavier McKinney said. “But, when you got guys around him that can be able to turn those 1-yard passes or whatever it is and they can turn that to touchdowns, to 20-yard gains, 10-yard gains, whatever, when you have playmakers around him, obviously, it helps him a lot.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is 2-3 as a starter, with the wins coming at Chicago and at Detroit.
Minnesota Vikings quarterback J.J. McCarthy is 2-3 as a starter, with the wins coming at Chicago and at Detroit. / David Reginek-Imagn Images
“But I think he’s still a young quarterback. He’s learning, and he’s going to have his growing pains, and I’m sure he’s going to get a lot better, but I think right now, he’s really young, and I think it shows.”
The Packers are third in yards allowed per pass attempt. While they have only three interceptions, they had a chance for four last week. So, at least they’re in position. McCarthy’s brief history suggests he’ll give them opportunities. This could be the week when the Packers make a few game-changing plays.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores is going to blitz Jordan Love. He’s going to blitz in the first quarter and the fourth quarter. He’s going to blitz on first down and third down. Heck, he’s going to blitz coming off the bus.
According to Pro Football Reference, the Vikings’ blitz rate is an NFL-high 43.9 percent. The Falcons (40.5 percent) are the only other team at more than 31.1 percent. So, this will be an unusual challenge.
“They put you in a lot of bad situations in terms of just the different looks that they throw at you,” Packers coach Matt LaFleur said. “They’re going to bring a ton of pressure, and you better be able to identify and then go execute those blocks, because they can force you into some really bad decisions and put a lot of pressure on the quarterback.
“I think Brian does a hell of a job, as good as anybody at just, when you game plan for him, it takes a lot longer than your typical game plan, just because of all the different looks that he presents. It is a real, real challenge.”
Love has really struggled to complete passes and make plays when under pressure. However, he has not struggled against the blitz.
Of 35 quarterbacks to be blitzed on at least 50 dropbacks, Love is 15th in completion percentage, ninth in yards per attempt and fourth in touchdowns, according to Pro Football Focus. With eight touchdowns and one interception, he is sixth with a 110.3 passer rating when blitzed.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fourth in blitz percentage this season. Love was 16-of-22 passing for 243 yards and three touchdowns in Week 8.
The change in centers, with Sean Rhyan replacing injured Elgton Jenkins, could be a factor, but Love has the ability to not just survive against the blitz but thrive.
This year, teams that win the turnover differential are 101-25. It’s the ultimate determiner of who wins and who loses.
The Packers are only plus-1 this season. They have done a good job of taking care of the ball with a fourth-ranked seven giveaways. They have done a terrible job of taking it away, though, with a 28th-ranked eight takeaways. However, after forcing just one turnover in a four-game stretch, the Packers have at least one in five consecutive games. So, the trend is promising.
The Vikings are a Dumpster fire trapped in a volcano. They are 31st in the league at minus-9. Only the woeful Jets are worse at minus-11.
Last season, no team was better at taking away the ball than the Vikings. They were tied for tops in the league with 33 takeaways. Their 24 interceptions were five more than any other team.
This year, the magic has vanished. The Vikings are 24th with nine takeaways and next-to-last with three interceptions. Going from 24 interceptions to three is stunning. On the other side of the ball, they’re next-to-last with 18 giveaways. They have thrown a league-high 13 interceptions, with at least one in nine of 10 games.
Can the Packers take advantage is the question? They have only three interceptions this season; they had a chance for four last week alone but dropped two and dislodged two others from teammates’ hands.
Turnovers won’t be just the key to this game. They’ll be the key to the rest of the season because they’d allow the Packers to really step up on the gas.
“If we catch those ones they throw to us, that’s not a close football game. It’s just not,” Hafley said of the 27-20 win over the Giants. “We take the ball away, we give it to our offense, we go up, then it turns into a pass-rush game where our ears are pinned back and they have to throw the ball 20, 30 times more.
“But we have to make those plays to change the game to go up on people and put people away quicker. We’re playing good defense by all the metrics, all the numbers. We’ve got to do a better job there.”
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In Part 1 of our weekly dyanmic duo of stories, here are three reasons why the #Packers will lose to the Vikings on Sunday. (Part 2 will go live at 12:30 p.m.) ⬇️https://t.co/m22VApen3J
— Bill Huber (@BillHuberNFL) November 22, 2025