As we’ve done in the past, below are the keys and my prediction of the Pittsburgh Steelers winning (or losing) today’s game. Three things that need to happen for them to end up on the right side of the score and vice versa in their Week 12 game against the Chicago Bears.
My Steelers’ prediction is at the bottom.
The Steelers Will Win If…
1. Tight Ends/Running Backs Take Advantage Of Bears Injured LBs
Chicago is rocked with linebacker injuries and will be without its top three on the depth chart. The Bears run a 4-2-5 the majority of the time which helps mitigate that. But still, Chicago has struggled against the run all season. Pittsburgh must keep taking advantage.
The tight ends and running backs also have to continue making impacts in the passing game. There should be plenty of chances for Kenneth Gainwell and Jaylen Warren to make plays in the flat, and the tight ends over the middle.
2. Rush Overwhelms Caleb Williams
Feels like it’s going to go one of two ways. Either Caleb Williams and the Bears’ scheme toys with the Steelers, or Pittsburgh’s front seven talent is simply too much for Williams to handle.
One cat-and-mouse game will be how much Pittsburgh chooses to blitz Williams. The Bears are probably expecting it, which might incentivize the Steelers to back off, especially knowing Chicago has a big-play passing game. Still, getting to Williams can create negativity that will get the Bears off schedule and quiet a home crowd.
3. Steelers Can Control Tenor And Tempo
Something the team has rarely done this season. Chicago ranks third in offensive plays per game at 65. Pittsburgh sits last at 55 per game. Effectively, that 10-play difference means the Bears are averaging a healthy drive more per game than the Steelers. That can’t happen again.
For Pittsburgh, that means running the ball and controlling the line of scrimmage. Winning on third down, something that’s no easy feat against Chicago’s No. 2-ranked possession down unit. Don’t let the Bears play it on their terms. Keep Caleb Williams on the sideline and limit their possessions and plays.
The Steelers Will Lose If…
1. Bears Coverage Shuts Pass Game Down
Pittsburgh’s passing game has struggled throughout the season, especially as of late. It could be in even more trouble with uncertainty at quarterback with either an injured Aaron Rodgers or backup Mason Rudolph.
The Steelers have had their most issues against match coverages. Teams that don’t run just man or spot drop zone. The Philadelphia Eagles last year against Vic Fangio and the Los Angeles Chargers and Jesse Minter earlier this year. The Bears run the same under veteran DC Dennis Allen. Pittsburgh has to have better answers to scheme receivers open and create more big plays downfield. Especially knowing Chicago is getting healthier in the secondary.
2. Chicago Wins With Its Bag Of Tricks
From head coach Ben Johnson to having former Steelers WR Antwaan Randle El on the coaching staff, the Bears are well-versed in trick plays. Tight ends throwing the ball, quarterbacks catching touchdowns, 19 wide receiver runs this season.
The Steelers have to be ready for it all. It’s hard to expect the unexpected and to know when it’ll happen. But Pittsburgh can’t get caught by a trick that creates a momentum-changing play to shift the outcome of this game.
3. Takeaways Go In Bears Favor
The Steelers and Bears share at least one commonality. The goal and the ability to take the football away. Chicago leads the league by creating 22 turnovers. With 18, Pittsburgh isn’t far behind.
Whoever wins this battle will carry an obvious advantage. The Bears get more interceptions while the Steelers force more fumbles. But no matter how they come, the turnover differential will be a key stat to watch.
Prediction
Bears: 26
Steelers: 20
Season Prediction Record
3-7
Happy to be wrong this week. Which I’ve gotten very good at being.
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