The Patriots have a realistic shot at achieving all of the big- picture goals Mike Vrabel laid out for the team after taking over as head coach.
The top three goals on his wish list?
Win the AFC East.
Host playoff games.
Compete for championships.
At Week 12, all three of those are still in play thanks to the stunning exploits of Drake Maye, improved offensive line play, a group of unselfish receivers led by Stefon Diggs, a stingy defense, a superb coaching staff led by Vrabel, and a less-than daunting schedule.
All of the above have the Patriots at 9-2, in first place in the division, and in the running for the AFC’s top playoff seed.
En route to the finish line, however, it behooves the Patriots to iron out a few things.
Over the course of the final six games, starting with today’s game against the Cincinnati Bengals, they need to eliminate a few of their potential stumbling blocks.
Here are five items on their fix list:
Opening Script
Since Week 1, this has been a recurring problem for the defense.
The Patriots have allowed six touchdowns on opening drives. That’s tied for the most in the NFL. Overall, in 11 games, teams have put up points on eight opening drives (two were field goals) against the Patriots.
“We’re continually on the search for that first-drive mishap,” linebacker Robert Spillane said following the Jets win last Thursday, where, right on cue, the New Yorkers marched right down the field to score on the first possession. “We so badly want to keep them out of the end zone.”
They’ve tried to fix the issue, even having senior defensive assistant Ben McAdoo, a former offensive coordinator, script opening drives to help prep the defense.
To this point, nothing has worked, so they’re still searching for answers with the Bengals next up.
After much speculation about whether Joe Burrow would be activated for the game, the Patriots will instead face veteran Joe Flacco.
Shutting down Flacco and the Bengals on the opening drive and not constantly have to face an early deficit would help the cause going forward.
Red Zone
Life in the red zone hasn’t exactly been a picnic. And that’s on both sides of the ball.
Defensively, the team has been near the bottom, or the worst overall at preventing teams from getting into the end zone when they get to the red area.
Currently, they’re 31st (opposing teams have a 72% conversion rate), with only the New York Giants behind them.
Bend don’t break is fine, as long as they don’t break.
From 20 yards in, however, the Patriots have broken more times than they’ve held.
Even though they’re only allowing 18.7 points per game, fifth best in the league, that has to change.
The Bengals have the 14th-best red zone offense - with or without Burrow. So today’s a good place to start.
Offensively, meanwhile, the Patriots are right around the middle of the pack (17th). Some years, that wouldn’t be such a big deal.
This year, with the Patriots trying to position themselves for the playoffs, it’s noteworthy.
Drake Maye & Co. have scored just 23 touchdowns in 39 trips (58.9%). Leading the league in red zone turnovers (4) hasn’t helped.
Down the stretch and into the post-season, they’re going to need to convert much better from those opportunities in close. They can’t leave points on the field.
Pass rush
The Patriots pass rush has been good, not great.
Through Week 11, Pro Football Focus has the team ranked 16th in that category. PFF also has the Patriots ranked 21st in sack percentage.
On the year, the Patriots have registered 24 sacks. Denver, tops in the league, has more than double (49) that number.
They’re going to need to rise above mediocre with their pass rush if they expect to make some noise in the playoffs.
Milton Williams, Christian Barmore and Khyiris Tonga , the guys up front, have done a good job penetrating in the middle. Williams, who was put on IR with a high ankle sprain, will be missed over the course of the next four games.
As for their edge guys, Harold Landry was a menace early in the season. But since he suffered an ankle injury, hasn’t been quite the same.
K’Lavon Chaisson, whose proven one of the better offseason signings, leads the team with 6.5 sacks, followed by Landry (5.5) and Williams (3.5).
It doesn’t help that the Patriots have little depth behind Chaisson and Landry.
Run game
The Patriots run game, which ranks 27th in the league in yards per attempt, has risen a bit in recent weeks.
But that’s largely the result of TreVeyon Henderson hitting on a few explosive runs.
Take those away, along with Maye’s scrambling ability, and the average yards per attempt is subpar.
With winter weather upon us, the Patriots are going to need their run game.
Rhamondre Stevenson, out the last three games with a toe injury, returns against the Bengals. He and Henderson, who has made strides but is still getting up to speed with the pro game, should provide a nice one-two punch.
But they need to show it down-to-down. Not just with occasional explosive plays.
Getting a little more drive up front from the offensive line also wouldn’t hurt.
Turnovers
Middle of the pack isn’t bad for a non-contending team. It’s not great for a team that’s in first place in the division, trying to secure the AFC’s first overall seed.
In 11 games, the Patriots have produced just 12 turnovers (7 picks, 5 fumbles).
They’ve only had one turnover (a botched snap by the Jets) during the past three games.
Stepping up the takeaway game is a must. It’s another avenue for them to improve.
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