The Atlanta Falcons head to New Orleans on Sunday to take on the Saints as underdogs. Sitting at 3-2 after five games, it wasn't supposed to look like this for the Falcons against the rebuilding Saints, but five straight losses later, and Atlanta looks like the team with no direction heading towards the offseason.
Quarterback Kirk Cousins returns to the scene where it all started to go wrong for him and Atlanta. The Falcons were 6-3 when they went to New Orleans last season. Cousins took a brutal hit, tried and failed to play through an injury. He was benched a month later after a five-game stretch that saw the Falcons go 1-4 as Cousins threw nine interceptions against one touchdown.
What happens next for the Atlanta Falcons? Don't miss out on any news and analysis! Take a second, sign up for our free newsletter, and get breaking Falcons news delivered to your inbox daily!
He lost the starting job to rookie Michael Penix Jr., but he's back in the saddle after Penix suffered an ACL tear last week against the Carolina Panthers, the third of his career.
Penix isn't the only Falcons player out this week against the Saints. Wide receiver Drake London is out, and defensive lineman Zach Harrison and cornerback Billy Bowman Jr. hit injured reserve this week.
It looks bleak for the Falcons, but still, one of ESPN's panel of writers picked Atlanta to win in New Orleans. ESPN's panel includes reporter Pamela Maldonado, fantasy analyst Eric Moody, and analytics writer Seth Walder.
Maldonado's pick: Falcons 25, Saints 20
Moody's pick: Saints 24, Falcons 20
Walder's pick: Saints 20, Falcons 17
FPI prediction: ATL, 55% (by an average of 1.6 points)
ESPN's betting nugget also reveals that Cousins is 1-5 against the spread in his last five starts.
With London out, the offense will look similar to the one the Falcons fielded in their 34-10 blowout loss to the Miami Dolphins. Cousins started that game with Darnell Mooney, David Sills, and KhaDarel Hodge as his primary receivers.
Last week, Bryce Young set the Carolina Panthers franchise record for passing yards with 448. Saints rookie Tyler Shough could find similar success against the suddenly vulnerable pass defense, according to Moody.
"Over his past four games, Chris Olave has averaged 7.7 targets and 17.7 fantasy points per game," Moody wrote. "Another Saints player trending up is Johnson, who has scored 10 or more fantasy points in four straight games, including a 19.2-point performance. The matchup is particularly good for Olave against a Falcons defense that has struggled recently against outside receivers. Over the past three games, Atlanta has allowed the third-most passing yards per game."
Two weeks ago, the Falcons gave up a franchise-worst 323 yards rushing to the Indianapolis Colts, and Walder is predicting a big game for running back Alvin Kamara.
The Falcons and Saints kick off on Sunday at 4:25 p.m. EST on FOX. They're hoping Cousins can find the Fountain of Youth in New Orleans and try to turn around a season that has been spiraling downward for the last month.