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Bears vs. Steelers prediction: Can Chicago finally break the Aaron Rodgers curse?

Chicago Bears fans thought they had rid themselves of Aaron Rodgers when the Green Bay Packers traded him to the New York Jets in 2023. But like a virus that mutates and finds a way to survive, Rodgers is back to potentially haunt the Bears again, this time as a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Indeed, Rodgers' status for Week 12's matchup between the Bears and Steelers remains unclear. He has a fractured non-throwing wrist and is a legitimate game-time decision.

But this is Aaron Rodgers. And these are the Chicago Bears. There's no other way to approach this game prediction than to assume Rodgers will play and try to improve his already ridiculous 25-5 all-time record against the Bears (including one playoff win).

But here's the twist: if Rodgers does play, it's great news for Chicago.

Aaron Rodgers has been pushing to play Sunday vs. the Bears, but Steelers doctors have been more cautious and guarded, per sources. If the decision is left to Rodgers, he will play, but the team has declined to provide hints as to its final decision. pic.twitter.com/0pTHeKZZo7

— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 23, 2025

Sure, that seems impossible to believe for Bears Nation, but it's true. A wounded Rodgers, one who will be more focused on protecting himself than standing tall in the pocket and delivering a seed to D.K. Metcalf, is exactly what Dennis Allen's defense needs to face.

It's especially true this week, when the Bears will be without their entire starting linebacker corps and their top two cornerbacks.

Normally, that would be a recipe for disaster against Aaron Rodgers. However, in 2025, Rodgers doesn't have the Steelers' passing offense humming.

Pittsburgh enters Week 12 ranked 22nd in passing in the NFL. Rodgers is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards per game, although he is on pace to throw 32 touchdowns this year.

Most importantly, Rodgers' legs are a fraction of the weapon that they used to be. Bears fans know firsthand how prime-Rodgers could extend plays with his pocket elusiveness. That version of Chicago's slumlord is dead.

Still, it's fair to expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to put up enough points to challenge Caleb Williams to deliver late-game heroics again.

And I'd bet on Williams to come through.

Let's face it: it's a great matchup for Ben Johnson and the Bears' passing game. The Steelers enter Sunday's contest with the worst-ranked pass defense in the NFL. They're allowing nearly 262 yards per game, and you can bet on Williams doing his part to inflate that number at Soldier Field.

The Chicago Bears' defense will bend... and bend... and bend some more in Week 12. It might even show signs of cracking, too. But Dennis Allen's group will get bailed out by Caleb Williams and the offense in what could be another heart-stopping shootout.

Final score prediction: Bears 31 Steelers 28

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