GREEN BAY, Wis. – Because of bad losses to the Browns and Panthers and back-to-back home losses to the Panthers and Eagles, the Green Bay Packers enter Sunday’s home game against the Minnesota Vikings as close to first place in the NFC North as out of the playoff race altogether.
This is a huge game. Plain and simple. If the Packers win, it will set up even bigger games on Thanksgiving at Detroit, the back-to-back NFC North champions, and back home against Chicago, which leads the NFC North entering Week 12.
If they lose, it will be desperation mode the rest of the way.
Can the Packers snap a two-game home losing streak to the Vikings?
There are two critical factors that determine which team wins and which team loses in the NFL.
One is the quarterbacks. The Packers have a big edge with Jordan Love against first-year starter J.J. McCarthy. In five career starts, McCarthy has completed just 52.9 percent of his passes. His only game of better than 56.0 percent came in Week 1, when he completed 65.0 percent in a win at Chicago.
Love for the season has completed 67.7 percent of his passes. So, his average game is better than McCarthy’s best game. Moreover, Love has 15 touchdowns and three interceptions, and McCarthy has six touchdowns and eight interceptions.
On paper, it’s a mismatch – so long as the Packers can pass protect. The Vikings have the most blitz-happy defense in the league. Love has beaten the blitz this season but has been bad when pressured.
The other key factor is turnovers. The Packers are only plus-1 for the season but they have done a good job of taking care of football and have at least one takeaway in each of their last five games. So, that’s trending in the right direction.
The Vikings, on the other hand, are a woeful minus-9. Only the Jets are worse. On offense, Minnesota has turned it over 18 times, second-most in the league. On defense, it led the NFL with 24 interceptions last season but has only three this season.
So – on paper, again – this is another mismatch, so long as Love is protected and smart with the football and the defense does a better job of taking advantage of opportunities than it did last week.
“The picks are going to come,” safety Xavier McKinney said. ”Just believe me when I tell you. The. Picks. Will. Come. And the turnovers. It’s just not all the way there right now. But they will come, and when they do, I’m going to come back to the camera like, ‘I told you.’ It’s going to happen.
“So, sometimes you’ve got be patient. Just be patient and, once they do come, we just got to make them.”
For both teams, this is a must-win game. If the Packers lose a third consecutive home game, they’d fall to 6-4-1. They won’t be dead, but they’d be in big trouble. If the Vikings lose for the fifth time in six games, they’d fall to 4-7. By all intents and purposes, their season would be over.
“The NFC North is wide open,” Love said, “and we’ve got to take advantage of these games to go out there and go win it.”
So, with plenty of motivation on both sidelines, let’s rely on the old standbys. The team with the better quarterback tends to win. The team that wins the turnover battle tends to win.
The Packers have the advantage on both and will score their magic point total to secure a big NFC North win.
Prediction: Packers 27, Vikings 16
Last week’s prediction: Packers 24, Giants 13.
Season record: 6-3-1.
Here are the rest of the Week 12 games, including the Detroit Lions (6-4) hosting the New York Giants (2-9) and the Chicago Bears (7-3) hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4) also in the early window. So, by about 3:15 p.m., the NFC North standings could look a lot different.
Thursday: Bills over Texans.
Early games: Ravens over Jets, Bears over Steelers, Patriots over Bengals, Lions over Giants, Packers over Vikings, Chiefs over Colts, Seahawks over Titans.
Afternoon games: Jaguars over Cardinals, Raiders over Browns, Eagles over Cowboys, Falcons over Saints.
Primetime: Rams over Buccaneers (Sunday), 49ers over Panthers (Monday).
Last week: 12-3.
Season: 107-57-1.
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