Cleveland Browns quarterback Dillon Gabriel is out for Week 12 against the Las Vegas Raiders due to a concussion, opening the door for Shedeur Sanders to make his first NFL start. It’s a golden opportunity for the rookie quarterback to prove himself.
Sanders’ first NFL appearance filling in for Gabriel went poorly, but he didn’t have the benefit of any first-team reps in practice. That changed in preparation for Week 12 and it puts him in a better position to take on the Raiders. Now let’s dive into our predictions for Sanders’ first NFL start.
Cleveland Browns Win in Shedeur Sanders’ First Start
NFL Predictions, Shedeur Sanders
Scott Galvin-Imagn Images
Shedeur Sanders will walk off the field on Sunday afternoon with a 1-0 record as the Browns starting quarterback. He draws a favorable matchup against a 2-8 Raiders team that was recently embarrassed on Monday Night Football and struggles with arguably the worst offensive line in the NFL. Sanders is supported by a defense that has allowed the fifth-lowest yards-per-play average (4.8), the third-fewest yards per drive (24.5), and the sixth fewest points per drive allowed (1.84). As long as Sanders avoids turnovers, this Browns defense should give him short fields and allow him to win a low-scoring game.
Prediction: Cleveland Browns 17, Las Vegas Raiders 10
Related: NFL Week 12 Predictions for Every Game
Shedeur Sanders Throws his First TD Pass in the Second Quarter
NFL Predictions, Shedeur Sanders
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Sanders had his first shot at a touchdown against Baltimore, but that potential game-winning drive came up just short. We anticipate there being some jitters in his first NFL start on the road, especially since this Browns offensive line has to square off against Maxx Crosby. Cleveland’s offense will struggle in the first quarter, but a takeaway generated by the defense in Raiders territory is a turning point. Sanders gets the football inside the 40-yard line and a few plays later, he’ll connect with Harold Fannin Jr for his first NFL touchdown.
Related: How Shedeur Sanders, Quinn Ewers Cost Themselves Millions
Las Vegas Raiders Sack Shedeur Sanders 4+ Times
NFL Predictions, Shedeur Sanders
Ken Blaze-Imagn Images
Coming off the bench in Week 11, Pro Football Focus determined that Sanders was only responsible for 14.3 percent of the pressures allowed. However, he demonstrated in that game that his penchant for holding onto the football far too long hasn’t gone away even after months spent being coached up. That’s bad news against a defense with a 38 percent ESPN pass-rush win rate (15th in the NFL), especially since the Browns offensive line allows the second highest pressure rate (41.6 percent) in the NFL. It’s going to be a mess back there. Sanders will be sacked four times, at a minimum, on Sunday.
Related: NFL Defense Rankings 2025, Evaluating all 32 Defenses
Shedeur Sanders Completes Under 55 Percent of his Passes
NFL Predictions, Shedeur Sanders
Jeff Lange / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images
In Week 11, per PFF, Sanders was pressured on 47.6 percent of his 21 drop backs. He didn’t complete a single one of his 7 pass attempts when pressured and he completed just 4-of-9 attempts when blitzed with a 60.9 passer rating. Las Vegas might not have shutdown corners, but Eric Stokes has been solid in coverage this season and Cleveland’s receiving corps struggles to create much separation. All of this is a recipe for Sanders to really struggle with hitting his pass-catchers on Sunday.
Shedeur Sanders stats prediction: 14-of-27, 137 passing yards, 1-1 TD-INT, 5 sacks taken
Related: Best NFL Rookies 2025
avatar
Matt Johnson is Senior Editor of NFL and College Football for Sportsnaut. His work, including weekly NFL and college ... More about Matt Johnson