With Jaxson Dart sidelined, the New York Giants will roll with Jameis Winston at quarterback for another week.
They’ll face the Detroit Lions on Sunday. Surprisingly, Detroit is a team that would currently miss the playoffs if the season ended today, though thankfully for the Lions, there’s still plenty of time for that to change.
The Lions jumped out to a 4–1 start but have gone just 2–3 over their last five games. Now they welcome the 2–9 Giants, a matchup that could be just what Detroit needs to steady itself heading into late November.
Detroit was favored by about 10.5 points for most of the week, but after the announcement that Dart didn’t clear concussion protocol, the spread widened to around 13 points at leading New Jersey sportsbooks. So how are we approaching this game from a betting standpoint?
Giants vs. Lions predictions and best bets
Over 49.5 points (-115 odds at FanDuel)
Lions over 3.5 touchdowns (-154 odds at DraftKings)
Jahmyr Gibbs 2+ touchdowns (+190 odds at BetMGM)
When the Lions enter a game as heavy favorites, they usually flex their muscle and light up the scoreboard.
In their six wins this year, they’re averaging over 38 points and have dipped below 34 in only one of those victories.
They now face a Giants defense that ranks 29th in EPA per play and, even more concerning, 32nd against the run. (EPA gauges how much each individual play helps or hurts a team’s chance of scoring on that drive.)
Detroit loves to run the ball straight at opposing defenses, and that should spell a big outing for Jahmyr Gibbs, who already has three games this season with multiple touchdowns.
On the other side, Jameis Winston’s aggressive style means he’ll keep taking shots downfield no matter the situation. That can lead to explosive plays, but it also increases the likelihood of turnovers. Both of those can lead to higher scoring.
I expect Detroit to push close to 40 points by themselves, and Winston might end up giving them a couple more. If not, he should lead the Giants to a couple of scores which would push this game over the total.
Giants vs. Lions moneyline odds analysis
How Detroit wins as the favorite
Best odds: -750 at Caesars Sportsbook
The Lions have handled weaker opponents well this season, posting margin of victories of 24 points over Cleveland, 13 over Cincinnati, and 22 over Washington.
Jared Goff has been a far more effective quarterback at home, and neither the weather nor the Giants’ defense should disrupt him the way last Sunday’s conditions did.
Detroit needs this win, and if they stay locked in, they shouldn’t have much trouble getting it.
How New York wins as the underdog
Best odds: +610 at FanDuel Sportsbook
The Giants actually held a fourth-quarter lead against the Packers last weekend, showing they haven’t mailed it in the way some 2–9 teams might.
Jameis Winston remains one of the most unpredictable quarterbacks we’ve seen in years. He’s just as capable of throwing 4 interceptions as he is 400 passing yards.
The Giants would need some sparks of brilliance from their backup to pull off an upset, but he’s proven before that he’s capable of delivering those moments.
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