The AFC-leading New England Patriots (9-2) hit the road in Week 12 for a matchup with the Cincinnati Bengals (3-7). Kickoff is slated for 1 p.m. ET from Paycor Stadium.
The last time New England visited Cincinnati was Week 1 of the 2024 season. The Bengals were 7.5-point favorites, but a lockdown performance from the defense gave the Patriots a 16-10 upset victory.
Over a year later, New England is now the Super Bowl contender, while the Bengals are trying to salvage a three-win campaign. One important storyline to follow is the potential return of QB Joe Burrow, who hasn’t played since Week 2 due to a Grade 3 turf toe. Burrow practiced all week, according to the injury report, and is considered questionable.
MORE: Take a deeper dive into the Patriots’ NFL Week 12 odds.
Patriots vs. Bengals best bets and predictions
Patriots -7:-105 at BetMGM
TreVeyon Henderson over 52.5 rushing yards:-114 at FanDuel
NOTE: Odds are based on the best value our experts find when writing; check lines closer to game time to ensure you get the best odds.
Anytime a wager seems too good to be true, it seemingly always ends as a loser. That’s the feeling I get with the Patriots -7. Plus, the public betting trends show New England is a very popular pick.
According to the splits at BetMGM Sportsbook, 71% of wagers placed are backing the Pats against the spread. What’s more, 93% of moneyline bets are on New England.
Still, I’m taking the cheese and betting the Patriots as 7-point favorites. The Bengals have lost seven of eight games since Week 3. All but two losses were by nine points or more, as Cincinnati has a putrid 3-7 record against the spread. Losing tight games is one thing, but that’s not been the story for Cincy.
Meanwhile, the Patriots are on the verge of winning a ninth-straight game. They’re 7-3-1 against the spread, tied for the second-best ATS record in the NFL. Plus, New England got extra time to rest and prepare after beating the Jets on Thursday Night Football last week.
Burrow’s potential return could complicate things, but he’ll undoubtedly have rust to shake after watching from the sidelines for over two months. Regardless of Burrow’s status, the Bengals’ WR corps is missing a key piece. Leading WR Ja’Marr Chase is suspended this week following an altercation with Pittsburgh Steelers FS Jalen Ramsey.
New England is due for a letdown spot, but I don’t see it happening this week.
Patriots vs. Bengals moneyline odds analysis
Why the Patriots could win as the favorite
Best odds:-325 at Fanatics
QB Drake Maye and the offense can pick their poison against a horrendous Bengals defense that allows the most points per game (33.4) in the NFL. Cincinnati has only held one of its 10 opponents to less than 27 points.
The unit ranks last and second-to-last in rushing yards (160.9) and passing yards (261.7) allowed per game, respectively. This is a historically bad defense facing a Patriots’ offense averaging 26.5 points.
With 10+ carries in four straight games, RB TreVeyon Henderson has emerged as the lead back for New England. The rookie has five touchdowns and 243 total yards in the previous two weeks.
If Henderson needs a breather, the Pats can rely on the MVP candidate under center. Maye nearly hit a season-high last week with 281 passing yards. The sophomore is still searching for the first 300-yard game of his career, and it could happen today if the Bengals keep it competitive in the second half.
Why the Bengals could win as the underdog
Best odds:+295 at FanDuel
The Bengals’ road map to victory is the same as it’s been all season: match the opposing offenses’ scoring. The defense is far from reliable, leaving it up to QB Joe Flacco or Burrow to shoulder the load.
Matching points won’t be easy with one of the best WRs in the NFL watching from the sideline. WR Tee Higgins will shoulder a bigger load this week, as he looks to continue a hot streak. Higgins has scored six touchdowns in the past six games, including a two-touchdown outing in Week 9.
There aren’t many holes to poke in a Patriots defense surrendering 18.7 points per game. However, they do allow the ninth-highest completion percentage (67.6) in the league. Tampa Bay Buccaneers’ QB Baker Mayfield threw for 273 yards and three touchdowns vs. New England, and Flacco and Burrow are plenty capable of surpassing that stat line.
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