Bo Nix reacts during an NFL game.
The Denver Broncos do not play in Week 12, but the AFC playoff picture is moving around them.
Denver enters the bye at 9-2, riding an eight-game win streak and sitting atop both the AFC West and the entire conference. The Broncos are the current No. 1 seed in the AFC, just ahead of the New England Patriots (9-2) and the Indianapolis Colts (8-2).
The model at NFL.com gives Denver a 96% chance to make the playoffs and a 26% shot at finishing as the AFC’s top seed heading into Week 12.
That’s a big leap from last season, when Sean Payton’s team squeezed in as the No. 7 seed and had to travel to Buffalo on Wild Card Weekend.
Now, with a two-game lead over the Los Angeles Chargers (7-4) and a 3.5-game cushion over the Kansas City Chiefs (5-5), the Broncos are in control of the AFC West for the first time in a decade.
The question for this weekend: Can Denver keep the AFC running through Mile High without even taking the field?
Week 12 Rooting Guide for Broncos Fans
With Denver and the Chargers both on bye, the focus shifts to the other AFC contenders.
Here are the biggest games for Broncos fans to track:
**Patriots at Bengals (1 p.m. ET)**New England visits Cincinnati at 9-2, sharing the AFC’s best record with Denver. A Patriots loss would drop them to 9-3, giving the Broncos clean control of the conference even if tiebreakers currently lean New England’s way in some models.
**Colts at Chiefs (1 p.m. ET)**Indianapolis is 8-2 and still very much in the race for the No. 1 seed. From a Denver standpoint, the simple math says it’s better for the Colts to take a loss and fall to 8-3, even if it breathes a little life back into Kansas City’s playoff hopes. NFL.com’s playoff-probability model calls this the most consequential game of the week for the Chiefs.
**Jets at Ravens (1 p.m. ET), Steelers at Bears (1 p.m. ET), Jaguars at Cardinals (4:05 p.m. ET)**None of these teams are catching Denver for the No. 1 seed right now, but they shape the wild-card field the Broncos could see later. The Steelers (6-4), Bills (7-4), Chargers (7-4) and Jaguars (6-4) round out the current AFC top seven, with teams like Houston and Kansas City still lurking.
The first piece of good news for Denver already arrived on Thursday: the Bills lost to the Texans, 23-19, dropping Buffalo to 7-4 and nudging them further behind the Broncos and Patriots in the race for a bye.
Put simply:
Root for the Bengals over the Patriots.
Root for the Chiefs over the Colts if you’re thinking big picture for the No. 1 seed.
Root for NFC teams and underdogs wherever possible to keep pressure off Denver’s path.
---Why the Broncos Look Built for January
If the Broncos can hang onto the top seed, it would set them up to host playoff games for the first time since their Super Bowl 50 run in the 2015 season.
The way they’re winning lines up with that goal.
In a recent Heavy.com piece on John Elway’s comments about Bo Nix and Sean Payton, Elway praised Nix’s experience and said the young quarterback “has all the tools,” while calling Payton the right offensive-minded coach and “psychologist” to manage him. That confidence in the quarterback–coach pairing matches the national perception of Denver as more than a one-year playoff cameo.
Special teams have turned into a weapon, too.In a separate Heavy breakdown of Dianna Russini’s column in The Athletic, Russini declared it “officially special teams season” and pointed directly at Darren Rizzi’s Broncos unit after their 22-19 win over the Chiefs.
With an eight-game win streak, a top seed for now, and elite special teams and defense around a young quarterback Elway believes in, Denver’s bye week suddenly doubles as a stress test for the rest of the AFC.
If the right dominoes fall on Sunday, the road to the Super Bowl really might start running through Mile High again.