The FIBA break has arrived – and with it, the end of Round 10. This round delivered clarity, chaos and a whole lot of storylines across the league.
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Melbourne United once again proved they are the benchmark of the competition, separating themselves with another dominant performance. The Adelaide 36ers also strengthened their claim as the second-best team in the league, showcasing a deep, versatile roster capable of winning in multiple ways.
The Tasmania JackJumpers finally rediscovered their rhythm in NBL26, while attention now turns north as questions grow louder around when Sam Waardenburg will return to the Cairns Taipans’ lineup.
And to cap it off, we dive into the NBL MVP race – is it a genuine two-horse battle, or is there a dark-horse candidate flying under the radar?
All that and more in the latest edition of NBL Talking Points.
MELBOURNE UNITED ARE JUST TOO GOOD
Melbourne United head into the FIBA break on top of the NBL ladder with a record of 13-2. Their 7-1 home record and 6-1 away record show exactly how good this team is. Their 2-0 weekend against two quality teams – the Illawarra Hawks and Perth Wildcats – highlighted a group capable of dealing with adversity and poor patches throughout games, yet still executing in the clutch to secure wins.
Against the Hawks, it was a perfectly timed and executed play that led to Finn Delany’s corner three to seal the game. Against the Wildcats, sheer heart and determination from Jesse Edwards on the offensive glass created multiple second-chance opportunities before Tyson Walker knocked down the three that essentially wrapped things up.
United now ride a four-game winning streak, with the Brisbane Bullets and South East Melbourne Phoenix also falling during that stretch. Looking into the numbers, it’s easy to see why they are the number one team in the NBL. Their balanced scoring sees five players averaging double digits to start the season, with eight players averaging more than five points per game.
They lead the NBL in scoring at 97.3 points per game. They sit fourth in rebounds per game (43.3), third in assists (19.9), second in field goal percentage (45%) and third in three-point percentage (33%). They are also second in offensive rebounds (14.4) and rank second in both steals and blocks per game.
Shea Ili will only make United even better when he returns. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)
Shea Ili will only make United even better when he returns. (Photo by Daniel Pockett/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
Across all major statistical categories, they are either the benchmark or very close to it. What makes it even scarier is that they still have room to improve, with Shea Ili yet to fully establish himself this season due to injuries. There is simply no more balanced or dynamic team in the NBL.
Two standout contributors this season have been Jesse Edwards and Tyson Walker. Both are new to the league, both are just 25 years of age, and both have had a significant impact. Edwards’ performance against the Wildcats – 11 points and 16 rebounds, including eight offensive boards – was crucial down the stretch. Walker’s ability to control tempo, defend, and hit big shots saw him finish the same game with 23 points, seven assists, four rebounds and two steals.
Coming out of the FIBA break, United face four major tests with games against the Perth Wildcats, South East Melbourne Phoenix, Adelaide 36ers and Sydney Kings. Three of these four matchups will see them on the road or as the away team in a Showdown environment. It will be a significant test coming out of the break.
One thing remains certain: they are the benchmark in form, culture, championship pedigree and development. Melbourne United consistently get the best out of players who haven’t shown it elsewhere. They simplify roles and create a system where buy-in and belief are automatic.
They are the team to beat – and that truth is backed by far more than just their record.
How United are current Kings of the NBL | 02:46
UNITED ARE THE BENCHMARK — BUT THE ‘SHOWTIME’ SIXERS ARE COMING
It always felt like this was coming. The Adelaide 36ers, positioned as one of the league’s best teams, now sit second behind Melbourne United heading into the FIBA break with an 11-3 record. Their 6-2 home record and 5-1 mark on the road show that even as this revamped roster continues to gel, they are firmly in the championship conversation.
Led by superstar Bryce Cotton, Adelaide’s success – especially in big games – will ultimately come down to the collective efforts around him. We’ve seen Cotton-led Perth teams fall short in the postseason when defences focused solely on stopping him and forced others to produce.
This Adelaide squad, however, is built differently. They have the manpower and depth that some of Cotton’s past teams lacked. Isaac Humphries and Zylan Cheatham are forming a formidable frontcourt duo, while Dejan Vasiljevic, Troy Brown Jr. and a strong supporting cast give the 36ers multiple threats who can close out games.
Their weekend performance highlighted this perfectly. Against the Illawarra Hawks, it was a gritty Cotton masterclass – 31 points and 13 assists – supported by dominant outings from Humphries (22 points, nine rebounds) and Cheatham (12 points, eight rebounds, seven assists).
Against South East Melbourne, it was Vasiljevic who took control late, finishing with a team-high 22 points. Cheatham delivered a monster 15-point, 16-rebound performance, adding three assists and two steals, while Cotton contributed 19 points and nine assists on 42% shooting.
What stands out is their versatility: they can win in multiple ways, with different players stepping up as game-winners. Their depth and composure late in games have been key drivers of their current four-game winning streak.
The Cardinals are led by Bryce Cotton. Picture: Michael Klein
The Cardinals are led by Bryce Cotton. Picture: Michael KleinSource: News Corp Australia
And perhaps the biggest thing still to unlock? Troy Brown Jr. The former NBA talent has shown flashes but has another level he can reach – and when he does, Adelaide becomes even more dangerous.
The FIBA break arrives at a perfect time. The Sixers have plenty of positives to build on, but also areas to refine. If they continue to grow together and stay grounded, they’ll remain a genuine threat deep into the season. But as history has shown, when individuals get ahead of themselves, things can unravel quickly.
This is still a club rebuilding its identity. For years, Adelaide struggled with culture and consistency, earning a reputation as one of the league’s biggest basket cases. But the arrival of high-character players and strong leadership has reset the foundation.
This version of the 36ers feels different – and if they continue on this trajectory, “Showtime” Adelaide might be here to stay.
Adelaide 36ers running hot in NBL | 01:24
THAT IS EXACTLY WHAT THE JACKJUMPERS NEEDED
Riding a six-game losing streak – with the real possibility of it stretching to seven – the Tasmania JackJumpers desperately needed a circuit-breaker. Their matchup against the Sydney Kings was exactly that. After a disappointing start to the season and a roster battered by injuries, the JackJumpers finally had most of their key pieces back and responded with a statement 104–81 win.
Their big three of Will Magnay, Josh Bannan and Bryce Hamilton all reminded the league why they are vital to this team’s success. All three finished with a plus-minus above +20, the highest in the game. Statistically, Hamilton delivered 22 points, six rebounds, six assists and two steals. Bannan continued his excellent form with 19 points, eight rebounds, two assists and a steal on 46% shooting.
After a tight first quarter, Tasmania blew the game open in the second, outscoring Sydney 33-16. Offence has been a major concern for the JackJumpers this season – they entered the round with the second-worst points-per-game mark in the league at just 85.7. But with their core players back on the floor, they shot 38% from three and 46% from the field, while setting a new season high in scoring.
It was an important win for the JackJumpers. (Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images)
It was an important win for the JackJumpers. (Photo by Steve Bell/Getty Images)Source: Getty Images
The timing of this win matters even more because it came at home in MyState Bank Arena. Before this game, Tasmania held a 1-6 home record and had not won on their home floor since – fittingly – the last time they played the Kings.
Heading into the FIBA break, the JackJumpers now have a valuable chance to build consistency within their rotation and finally develop some chemistry with a near-full roster. Their early-season form fell well below internal and external expectations, and while the injuries to David Johnson and Will Magnay – along with the expanded roles for Majok Deng and Nick Marshall – help explain their struggles, they don’t excuse them.
Coming out of the break, they face the New Zealand Breakers, South East Melbourne Phoenix and Cairns Taipans – all away from home. But with a 4-3 road record this season, the JackJumpers won’t be fazed by the travel. As poorly as they’ve played in stretches, they still sit sixth on the ladder and remain very much in the mix for a late-season surge.
If this win was any indication, Tasmania may have finally rediscovered the spark they’ve been lacking – and the timing couldn’t be better.
'He never got in my head' Crawford | 01:05
SAM WAARDENBURG’S RETURN COULDN’T COME QUICK ENOUGH
The Cairns Taipans almost entered the FIBA break with momentum, but ultimately fell short against the New Zealand Breakers, losing 102-96. Once again, they were carried by their leader Jack McVeigh, who played all 40 minutes and delivered a massive 35 points, seven rebounds and four assists on 57% shooting. Despite his brilliance, it still wasn’t enough.
Andrew Andrews was also strong with 23 points, nine assists and four steals on 50% shooting, but beyond those two – and with Admiral Schofield shifted to a bench role – the Taipans struggled to find consistent production from their depth.
That’s why the return of star forward Sam Waardenburg cannot come soon enough. While the exact timeline for his comeback remains uncertain, Cairns desperately need another scoring option who can operate inside and out, create for others, and defend both on the perimeter and in the paint. His return is the spark they need heading into the second half of the season.
Waardenburg is coming off a career year, averaging 14.5 points, 6.4 rebounds, 3.4 assists and one block on 50% shooting, including a personal-best 35% from three. His absence has been felt in every part of the Taipans’ offence.
Sam Waardenburg’s return is much-needed. Picture: Brendan Radke
Sam Waardenburg’s return is much-needed. Picture: Brendan RadkeSource: News Corp Australia
Cairns have cracked the 100-point mark just once this season. They average a league-low 81.4 points per game, shoot the second-worst field goal percentage at 42%, and rank in the bottom half of the league at 32% from three. Without Waardenburg, they simply don’t have enough scoring threats to relieve pressure from McVeigh and Andrews.
And while both have shown brilliance throughout the season, the lack of a reliable third option – someone who can even be the No. 1 guy on certain nights – is holding the Taipans back from competing consistently. Their 3-12 record makes the climb steep with nearly half the season gone, but the path isn’t impossible.
Coming out of the break, they face three winnable matchups against the Illawarra Hawks, Tasmania JackJumpers and New Zealand Breakers. If Waardenburg can return soon and reintegrate smoothly, Cairns could make a late push and cause headaches for teams across the league.
One thing is clear: the Taipans badly need their star back – and the moment he steps onto the floor, everything changes.
Taipans still last as Phoenix run riot | 00:59
BESIDES BRYCE COTTON AND JAVALE MCGEE, IS ANYONE CLOSE TO THE MVP RACE?
The five-time NBL MVP Bryce Cotton is well on track for a sixth in NBL26. His biggest challenger? Three-time NBA champion JaVale McGee, who has exceeded expectations and become one of the most dominant forces in the league. Cotton leads the NBL in scoring with 27.1 points per game and sits inside the top three for assists at seven per game.
He’s shooting 44% from the field and 41% from deep, and while his offensive brilliance is expected, his defensive leap has been just as impressive. Cotton is averaging a career-high 2.3 steals per game and sits inside the top 10 for plus-minus at +7.1. Leading the second-best team in the league to an 11-3 record only strengthens his case.
McGee, meanwhile, is putting up 21.5 points, 10.5 rebounds, 2.2 assists, two blocks and 1.2 steals per game. He’s shooting 59% from the field and 38% from three in limited attempts, proving his efficiency and versatility. The only factor working against him is Illawarra’s record – a 4-9 start leaves the Hawks second-last on the ladder, and historically, MVPs come from winning teams.
So the question remains: is there anyone else genuinely in the mix?
SO CLOSE! McGee from mid court | 00:42
Before his season-ending injury, Casey Prather was the clearest third candidate. Beyond him, Nathan Sobey and Kendric Davis appear to be the only other names with any realistic claim – though neither has matched the dominance of the two frontrunners.
Sobey is averaging a near career-high 21 points per game along with four assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.7 steals, shooting 42% from the field and 36% from three. He has been excellent, but not quite at Cotton or McGee’s level across all categories.
Kendric Davis nearly stole the award from Cotton last season, but his impact hasn’t been the same this year. His scoring has dropped from 25.6 to 22.4 points per game. His assists have plummeted from 7.8 to 4.4, and while his rebounding remains steady at 4.4 per game, his shooting percentages are down across the board.
Outside of these four, Jack McVeigh is the closest thing to a dark horse, but Cairns’ slow 3-12 start makes his path extremely difficult – no matter how good he’s been individually.
Right now, it’s a two-horse race. Cotton vs McGee. And if Illawarra can get rolling in the second half of the season, this MVP battle might get even closer than it already is.