As the Brandon Aiyuk drama casts a shadow over Levi’s Stadium, the 49ers have an important game to win to make the playoffs.
They face a Carolina team much like their own, an ascending offense that has just broken through, and a punchless defense among the league’s worst in blitz rate, pressure rate, and success rate. Neither team can get to the quarterback, which could make this game a shootout.
Nov 2, 2025; East Rutherford, New Jersey, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan on the sideline during the first
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Kyle Shanahan’s offense is designed to attack the linebackers, and Carolina is missing both of their starters. George Kittle and Christian McCaffrey as a receiver should be targeted heavily in this game as Shanahan exploits the second level of the Carolina defense. Kittle and McCaffrey had just under half of the targets in the Arizona game; they could have more in this one.
Ricky Pearsall will be close to game shape this week and should contribute beyond his decoy duty against Arizona.
On the ground, McCaffrey goes against the league’s 17th-ranked run defense. The Panthers are capable of defending the run but lack consistency. They held New Orleans to 3.3 yards per carry recently, but also gave up seven yards per carry to Buffalo as James Cook burned them for over 200 yards.
Brock Purdy comes off a solid passing game in his return from a turf toe injury. He completed 10-13 from inside five yards, 4-6 between six and ten yards, and 5-8 from 10 plus. He should have a similar distribution pattern against Carolina, possibly taking more shots downfield since the Panthers don’t generate much of a pass rush.
Purdy chose not to run past the line of scrimmage against Arizona. On one play, he had an open lane on a 3rd and 3 rollout and chose not to run for the first, throwing an incomplete floater into coverage. Purdy will need to play more aggressively as a runner as the season goes on, returning to his play as a dual-threat QB. At the same time, he’ll need to be cautious at the point of contact to avoid re-injury with slides and going out of bounds early.
In the red zone, Carolina is a top ten defense, only giving up touchdowns on 52.9% of possessions. With the return of Kittle, the Niners have been more efficient in the red zone. They’ll look to isolate the Carolina linebackers.
The Panthers are one of the five most vulnerable defenses in the league against the Niners’ primary strengths: motion, and throwing to the running back.
Nov 16, 2025; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Carolina Panthers quarterback Bryce Young (9) runs with the ball in the third quarter ag
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Bryce Young threw for a career high 448 passing yards last week against Atlanta. Speaking to his inconsistency, it’s more yards than he had in his prior three games combined. Which Young shows up against the Niners? Given that the San Francisco defense struggles to bring pressure, Young should do well.
One of the keys to Young’s breakout game was rookie wide receiver Tetairoa McMillian, with career highs for targets and yards. He had eight catches on 12 targets for 130 yards and two touchdowns. At 6-5, McMillian is difficult cover for 5-10 Deommodore Lenoir.
Robert Saleh will be concerned with Carolina’s explosive plays in the pass game last week, 39 yards to McMillian and a 36-yard touchdown to Xavier Legette. The Niners will therefore likely be back once again in soft zone coverage to keep the play in front of them, employing a bend don’t break philosophy on defense.
Rico Dowdle leads the Panthers' rushing attack with 833 yards on the year. He ran for 130 yards against Green Bay three weeks ago, but has averaged under three yards per carry since. The Niners will need to limit Dowdle to turn the Panthers' attack one-dimensional and help stop Young.
Carolina is likely to take a page from Sean McVay’s playbook and throw multiple tight end sets at the Niners. The Panthers have three capable tight ends led by Tommy Tremble and Ja’Tavion Sanders, both have at least 25 catches on the year.
San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle (85) celebrates his touchdown catch with teammates Jake Tonges (88) and Kendrick
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With neither team’s defense capable of stopping much of anything, limiting turnovers will be crucial. Short fields and bailing out the opposing defense could be backbreaking. Purdy will need to protect the ball and his toe, playing aggressive and smart football. Facing Carolina’s anemic pass rush will help.
Kittle typically shines in prime time, and he’ll have to play a big role in this one, together with McCaffrey against his old team. I’m expecting to see sustained drives from the Niners, with success on first setting them up for long scoring marches.
On defense, Carolina’s offense is a threat. They can beat this team deep, and Saleh will play back to try to prevent it. McMillian can have a big day against the shorter Niner corners. Unlike last week, the Niners can’t count on penalties. Carolina and the Niners are only separated by two penalties on the year.
I look to the Niners to have more consistent success on offense, and ride Kittle and McCaffrey to the win in a high-scoring game.
49ers 31 Carolina 24