The Week 12 Monday Night Football matchup was already massive for both the Panthers (6-5) and 49ers (7-4) before Tampa Bay’s loss to the Rams on Sunday Night Football.
Now, with a chance to move into first place in the NFC South (and Baker Mayfield potentially set to miss at least one game with a shoulder injury), this is easily the biggest game in nearly a decade for a Panthers franchise seeking its first playoff berth since 2017.
And we haven’t even mentioned the fact that tonight marks the first time Carolina has faced superstar running back Christian McCaffrey since trading him to San Francisco midway through the 2022 season.
Speaking of McCaffrey, the Niners’ top offensive weapon could be poised for a huge night, as the Panthers will be without starting inside linebackers Christian Rozeboom and Trevin Wallace.
For Carolina, keeping Bryce Young’s pocket clean will be tough without center Cade Mays or right guard Robert Hunt, but the Panthers have gotten solid play up front this season despite a number of injuries.
Another huge question for the Panthers — and anyone looking at the player props markets for this game — is whether Young will air it out or lean on the Carolina ground game. He’s attempted at least 45 passes twice this season, including in a career day last Sunday in Atlanta, but he’s attempted 25 or fewer passes in five of the Panthers’ first 11 games of the year.
Christian McCaffrey Over 45.5 Receiving Yards (-112 at FanDuel) — 1 unit
It would be an understatement to say the Niners have been less effective than usual at running the football this season. McCaffrey — who has averaged 4.6 yards per carry across 1,540 career rushing attempts — is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry, and he’s been held below 60 yards rushing in seven of 11 games this year.
He’s playing an even bigger role than usual in the San Francisco passing game, though. McCaffrey has caught at least six passes in 8/11 games, and he’s gotten at least 8 targets in 7/11. He also has a tremendous matchup in this game, and not only because Carolina will be without Rozeboom and Wallace. The Panthers allowed Bijan Robinson to turn 5 targets into 4 catches for 39 yards last week, and they gave up 3 catches on 3 targets for 32 yards to Alvin Kamara in Week 10.
Carolina has otherwise been solid, for the most part, at defending opposing running backs out of the backfield, but the challenge tonight (while shorthanded at LB against a back like McCaffrey) is massive. McCaffrey’s ability to break big plays also makes this tempting, as he’s had at least one 20-plus-yard catch in six games.
G. Kittle Long. Reception o21.5 yards (-110 at FD) — 1 unit
We’ve already mentioned multiple times that Carolina’s top two linebackers will be sidelined tonight.
Another player who could take advantage for the Niners is star tight end George Kittle. The Pro Bowl pass-catcher did not have a game this year with more than four catches until Week 10 , largely due to his absence from Weeks 2-6 with a hamstring injury.
He came alive the last two weeks, though, reeling in all 15 targets that went his way against the Rams in Week 10 and the Cardinals in Week 11. Kittle’s stat’s the last two weeks — 9 catches for 84 yards and 1 TD vs. the Rams and 6 catches for 67 yards and 2 TDs — make him a player to watch tonight, especially given the way injuries have limited the production of this team’s receivers.
Another factor in Kittle’s favor tonight is the Panthers’ occasionally leaky defending of opposing tight ends. In just the last five weeks, Carolina gave up the following numbers to TEs:
Mason Taylor (NYJ): 3 catches for 31 yards (long: 13 yards)
Dalton Kincaid, Dawson Knox (BUF): 2 total catches for 38 yards (long: 23 yards)
Luke Musgrave (GB): 3 catches for 34 yards (long: 21 yards)
Juwan Johnson (NO): 4 catches for 92 yards (long: 52 yards)
With the exception of Johnson’s, those are numbers any defensive coordinator would live with. Still, that’s three tight ends in the last five weeks — all of whom have considerably less big-play ability than Kittle — who have had at least one big play vs. this defense.
Kittle’s total receptions and receiving yardage props are also tempting, but “Kittle longest reception over 21.5 yards” is awfully hard to resist.
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