Despite their terrible league form, Liverpool are clear favourites with the Opta supercomputer when they host PSV in the Champions League on Wednesday. Look ahead to the game at Anfield with our Liverpool vs PSV Eindhoven prediction and preview.
Liverpool vs PSV: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer rates Liverpool as the overwhelming favourites with a 68.4% win probability to PSV’s 14.5%.
Arne Slot has suffered more defeats against PSV than any other side in his managerial career.
Liverpool have won each of their last 13 UEFA Champions League home games in the group stage/league phase.
Arne Slot has an ominous record against PSV that will not bring much comfort to a Liverpool side desperately looking for a Champions League pick-me-up at Anfield on Wednesday.
The Reds were humbled 3-0 by Nottingham Forest on home soil on Saturday and have now lost six out of their past seven Premier League games, a run that has seen them slip into the bottom half of the table.
Things are going reasonably well in the Champions League, though, with a 1-0 win over La Liga heavyweights Real Madrid at the start of November making it three wins from four – with a 1-0 defeat to Galatasaray representing their sole setback so far.
But under-fire boss Slot has not historically had the best of times against Eredivisie giants PSV, winning just one of his last eight against them in all competitions (D3 L4) and suffered defeat as Liverpool boss against them in last season’s edition. It must be said, though, his team had already sealed a top-eight finish and made significant changes to their team for that Matchday 8 meeting.
Indeed, against no side has Slot suffered more defeats in his managerial career than PSV (4 – level with FC Twente and Vitesse), and he will be desperate to turn the tide at Anfield.
Thankfully for Slot, it makes for kinder reading when looking at Liverpool’s home European form. The Reds have triumphed in each of their past 13 Champions League home games in the group stage/league phase, and their win over Madrid on MD4 set the outright longest such run by a Premier League side.
Moreover, the Reds have lost just once at Anfield across the past 25 group matches in Europe’s premier competition, a 2-0 reverse to Atalanta in November 2020 behind closed doors (W21 D3).
Slot also has several players contributing to the cause in Europe this season. Across the opening four matchdays, the only men to create five-plus big chances were all Liverpool players – with Florian Wirtz, Cody Gakpo and Dominik Szoboszlai all creating five.
Szoboszlai big chances created
Additionally, only Club Brugge (14) have recorded more direct attacks than Liverpool (12, alongside Marseille) in this season’s competition, while the Reds have allowed the joint-third fewest (3, alongside Chelsea), with only Manchester City and Inter (2 each) having a better record.
You can probably expect goals in this one, given both teams have scored in each of PSV’s last 10 Champions League games (22 for, 23 against). Only Lazio (17 between 2007 and 2023) and Real Madrid (11 between 2012 and 2013, and 2016 and 2017) having longer streaks of both scoring and conceding in the competition.
There has been plenty of late action in games involving PSV, too. They have scored more goals from the 86th minute onwards in Champions League matches this season than any other team (4), with their 93rd-minute equaliser last time out against Olympiakos their latest-ever result-altering goal away from home in the competition.
Ricardo Pepi has been directly involved in five goals in his last four Champions League games (3G 2A), including a goal and assist versus Liverpool in January. With goals in his last two, Pepi could become the fourth PSV player to score in three consecutive appearances in the competition, after Gilles De Bilde (1997), Ruud van Nistelrooy (1998) and Luuk de Jong (2018).
Ricardo Pepi last four games UCL goal involvements
Liverpool still have issues at right-back with both Jeremie Frimpong and Conor Bradley unavailable, but Wirtz could come back into contention after missing the Forest defeat with what has been described as a minor issue. Alassane Plea and Ruben van Bommel are long-term absentees for PSV.
Liverpool vs PSV Head-to-Head
Liverpool emerged as victors in five of their first six contests against PSV in European competition (D1).
However, as mentioned, the Reds were beaten 3-2 by the Dutch champions in last season’s league phase, which was their only defeat in the opening stage of the competition last term (W7).
PSV v Liverpool stats 2024-25
PSV have a poor away record against English opposition in European fixtures, though, winning just one of the last 14 such matches (D5 L8). They did get a 2-2 draw at Arsenal last season in the last 16, but it wasn’t much use after they had lost 7-1 to the Gunners in the first leg in Eindhoven.
Their sole victory was a 1-0 win at Tottenham in the 2007-08 UEFA Cup round-of-16 first leg, with Jefferson Farfán scoring the only goal.
Liverpool vs PSV Prediction
Liverpool are considered as the overwhelming favourites for Wednesday’s contest, with the Opta supercomputer giving them a 68.4% chance of emerging victorious from the 10,000 simulations conducted.
Then again, the Reds had a 71.1% chance of beating Nottingham Forest on Saturday prior to the game, and look how that turned out.
PSV, meanwhile, are considered just a 14.5% probability, with the draw rated as a 17.1% chance.
Liverpool vs PSV Prediction
Liverpool vs PSV Predicted Lineups
Liverpool: Alisson, Dominik Szoboszlai, Ibrahima Konaté, Virgil van Dijk, Milos Kerkez, Ryan Gravenberch, Alexis Mac Allister, Curtis Jones, Mohamed Salah, Cody Gakpo, Hugo Ekitiké.
Head coach: Arne Slot
PSV: Matej Kovár, Sergiño Dest, Jerdy Schouten, Yarek Gasiorowski, Anass Salah-Eddine, Mauro Júnior, Joey Veerman, Ismael Saibari, Dennis Man, Ivan Perisic, Guus Til.
Head coach: Peter Bosz
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off on Wednesday, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
UEFA Champions League Stats Opta
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