It’s better to be lucky than good.
But why choose if you don’t have to?
The Patriots, who have rolled through most of this season as a legitimately good team, were lucky to escape Cincinnati with their ninth straight win Sunday. The backup Bengals came 26 yards and a half-minute away from an upset, despite missing their four best players: Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Trey Hendrickson.
Now, there’s no shame in luck. But there’s a reason the lingering taste that game appeared to leave in Mike Vrabel’s mouth was more sour than sweet. After 12 games, the Pats are overdue for their bye — coming next week — and dealing with myriad serious injuries. Their trench play has also waned the last few games, bailed out by stretches of sticky pass coverage and, of course, Drake Maye.
As for Maye, you would never know a leading MVP candidate faced the league’s worst defense last Sunday by his performance. Maye eventually shook off the skyline chili coma he played through in the first 20 minutes and powered a winning effort into the second half. And there were other positive signs, starting with Carlton Davis, Marcus Jones, Hunter Henry and others.
But overall, this is a tired, now banged-up, Patriots team. The sooner the Pats can rest, the faster they can recover and the better they will be for their biggest tests of the season, which they have to hope don’t resemble the game they played Sunday.
Here’s what else the film revealed about the Patriots’ latest win:
Drake Maye
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a pass during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye throws a pass during the second half of an NFL football game against the Cincinnati Bengals, Sunday, Nov. 23, 2025, in Cincinnati. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster)
22-of-35 for 294 yards, TD, INT
Accurate throw percentage: 68.8%
Under pressure: 3-of-10 for 63 yards, TD, 6 rushing yards, sack
Against the blitz: 3-of-10 for 34 yards, sack
Behind the line: 3-of-3 for 19 yards
0-9 yards downfield: 11-of-16 for 109 yards
10-19 yards downfield: 7-of-12 for 129 yards, TD, INT
20+ yards downfield: 1-of-1 for 37 yards
Notes: Who was that guy at the beginning?
Maye looked like he had a body double for the Patriots’ first three possessions, a gross stretch he capped with the pick-six he tossed early in the second quarter. Maye was not only inaccurate, but an uncharacteristic mess against pressure. After two opening punts and the interception, offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels attempted to settle Maye down with basic concepts, but it wasn’t until he scrambled for a first down that the quarterback found his form.
Three plays later, he layered a 28-yard touchdown to Hunter Henry while under pressure to get the Patriots on the board. Maye’s accuracy never rose back to the elite level he’s maintained this season, save for a 37-yard rope he ripped to DeMario Douglas down the left seam in the third quarter to beat Cover 2. But Maye did enough against a Bengals defense that dared him to make tight-window throws and denied most deep shots while playing a heavy diet of Cover 1 and Cover 3.
Cincinnati played man-to-man on 40% of Maye’s passing snaps, the highest rate he’s seen since the Browns hit 46% last month and held the Patriots to nine points at halftime. Playing a high rate of man-to-man requires a disciplined contain rush that prevents Maye from escaping for long scrambles.
The Bengals largely succeeded up front, helped by a few well-timed and mostly unpredictable blitzes that were not predicated on down, distance or field position. Cincinnati sent nine blitzes with defensive backs, an effort to counter Maye’s speed with speed, and often overload one side of the Patriots’ offensive line. Maye can reasonably chalk up Sunday’s so-so performance to being “just one of those games” because his struggles were more about him than the Bengals.
However, future opponents with better defensive personnel could copy and paste the man-coverage and pressure elements of Cincy’s plan that did work, and put them to better use. Will the Pats have answers?
Critical areas
Turnovers: Patriots 1, Bengals 1
Explosive play rate: Patriots 10.4%, Bengals 3.2%
Success rate: Patriots 47%, Bengals 46%
Red-zone efficiency: Patriots 0-2, Bengals 1-1
Defensive pressure rate: Patriots 32.4%, Bengals 30.8%
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) makes an off-balance throw during an NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in Cincinnati, OH (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye (10) makes an off-balance throw during an NFL game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Sunday in Cincinnati, OH (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
Offense
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 52% of snaps in 11 personnel, 30% of snaps in 12 personnel, 10.5% snaps in 21F personnel, 6% snaps in 22 personnel, 3% of snaps in jumbo personnel, 1.5% of snaps in 10 personnel.***
Personnel production: 54% success rate in 11 personnel, 36% success rate in 12 personnel, 57% success rate in 21F personnel, 25% success rate in 22 personnel, 0% success rate in jumbo personnel, 0% success rate in 10 personnel.
First-down down play-calls: 57% run (35% success rate), 43% pass (46% success rate)
Play-action rate: 43.6%
McDaniels opened with a run-heavy script, then pivoted to what he wanted to hammer Cincinnati with all along: play-action.
He called a season-high play-action rate of 43.6%, a simple way to displace a bad and undisciplined Bengals defense. The Patriots’ ineffective run game didn’t defang their play-action, but it did force them into more obvious passing situations, which put more on Maye’s shoulders in a regular dropback setting. Early on, that led to a few punts, but as Maye improved, the plan began to click.
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Later, the Pats picked on Bengals cornerback Daxton Hill whenever they detected man-to-man coverage and attacked Cincinnati's thin linebacking corps, specifically Barrett Carter and Demetrius Knight Jr. Those matchups are how Hunter Henry enjoyed a career day. McDaniels also ditched most of his two-back packages after the first half, leaning more into three-receiver personnel and going up-tempo which put additional stress on Cincinnati.
Those shifts helped the Pats exploit the Bengals' man-coverage plan, including a clever play design in the fourth quarter where Maye faked a bubble screen to Douglas while Henry, who initially blocked his defender, then broke away for a 14-yard completion over the middle and pulled the offense into the red zone.
Now, the bad: calling zero quarterback sneaks on the six snaps the offense had the Bengals' 1-yard line in the third quarter. A baffling mistake with a 6-foot-4, 225-pound Maye. The Pats later telegraphed their only sneak with a tush push formation in the fourth quarter, and once center Garrett Bradbury and right guard Mike Onwenu lost their blocks, Maye had no shot.
Small errors in execution kept the Pats from scoring 30, perhaps 40, points, but it could be argued bouts of McDaniels overthinking did the same.
Player stats
Broken tackles: RB TreVeyon Henderson 2, RB Rhamondre Stevenson, QB Drake Maye
Pressure allowed: Team 5 (sack, 4 hurries), LG Ben Brown 2 (QB hit, hurry), LT Vederian Lowe 2 (2 hurries), RT Marcus Bryant 2 (2 hurries), C Garrett Bradbury (hurry)
Run stuffs allowed: Team 4, Brown, Lowe, Maye
Drops: N/A
Notes
Let's start at the Bengals' 1-yard line, where the Patriots should have blown this game open but instead let their hosts hang around. They had four runs stuffed at the 1-yard line, all thanks to missed or poor blocks by Will Campbell, Ben Brown, Garrett Bradbury, Mike Onwenu and Jack Westover.
On the fourth-and-goal stop, Maye could have and should have pulled the ball out from Stevenson and thrown to Hunter Henry in the right flat on a run-pass option where the Patriots were ready to screen his defender in a rub-route concept.
Specific to Bradbury and Onwenu, they got submarined by Bengals defensive linemen on Maye's tush-push sneak in the fourth quarter, which stopped them and their quarterback from generating any kind of push.
All of which is to say the Pats' short-yardage issues stemmed from play-calling and execution, though most were a consequence of poor blocking. Replacing Campbell and Jared Wilson for the foreseeable future won't help in this area, and neither will Westover if he can't clear out rushing lanes as a lead blocker.
The onus therefore falls on Josh McDaniels to become more creative inside the tight red zone and pivot from heavy personnel. Don't be surprised if Maye is involved in more option runs to offset their blocking issues.
Stefon Diggs finished with two catches and a quiet day until a third-down conversion against man-to-man coverage late in the fourth quarter. He can thank Bengals cornerback DJ Turner II for that.
Turner II shadowed Diggs for significant stretches, and the Bengals doubled Diggs on the Patriots' first pass on third down; a clear recognition of Maye's tendency to target his No. 1 receiver on key downs.
On that same play, Cincinnati created pressure executing a stunt across from left guard Ben Brown. The Patriots can expect opponents to target him and Vederian Lowe so long as they are protecting Maye's blind side.
Lowe finished with two allowed pressures in 16 pass-blocking snaps, one physical error and another mental mistake.
Onwenu was the only Patriots O-lineman to play the entire game and finish with a clean sheet in pass protection.
Elsewhere, it's rare to see a tight end become an offense's best weapon versus man-to-man, but that's exactly what Henry was Sunday. He caught four of Maye's seven completions versus man coverage, while Diggs, Kayshon Boutte and Mack Hollins had one each.
TreVeyon Henderson continues to see more success rushing outside, and specifically off right tackle on Sunday. One of Hendrson's best runs was an outside zone concept behind Onwenu and Morgan Moses.
Underwhelming return for Rhamondre Stevenson, who had little juice and even fewer open rushing lanes. He played 22 snaps to Henderson's 46.
Defense
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) almost makes a one handed catch but gets injured on the play as New England Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis III (7) defends during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov 23, 2025, in Cincinnati, OH (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins (5) almost makes a one handed catch but gets injured on the play as New England Patriots cornerback Carlton Davis III (7) defends during an NFL football game Sunday, Nov 23, 2025, in Cincinnati, OH (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
Game plan
Personnel breakdown: 73% three-corner nickel package, 21% dime, 3% dollar, 3% base defense.****
Coverage breakdown: 76% zone, 24% man
Blitz rate: 10%
Blitz efficacy: 25% offensive success rate and 3.0 yards per play allowed
You could almost hear the tires screech on the Patriots' defense as play-caller Zak Kuhr made a hard turn with the game on the line.
After not blitzing for three-plus quarters, Kuhr packed all of the Patriots' blitzes into the Bengals' final series, which ended with Flacco lofting an incompletion in the face of extra rushers. Kuhr had occasionally sent interior rushers at Flacco with simulated pressures that dropped edge defenders into coverage, but he refused to let the defense's lack of pass rush cost them the game. The Pats pressured Flacco just four times before the fourth quarter.
In coverage, the Patriots diversified their calls and took a conservative approach that played on Flacco's tendency to check the ball down at one of the highest rates in the NFL. Kuhr had almost an even split between single-high and two-high coverage. The Patriots' zone lean prevented the strong-armed Flacco from striking deep, and forced an undermanned Cincinnati offense to string together several successful plays in a row in order to reach the end zone. The Bengals finished with just one touchdown.
Christian Gonzalez successfully shadowed Tee Higgins on a part-time basis, which proved ironic since after Higgins left he gave up a fourth-quarter touchdown to little-known Mitchell Tinsley.
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco (16) spins out of a sack attempt by New England Patriots linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson (44) during an NFL game Sunday afternoon. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Flacco (16) spins out of a sack attempt by New England Patriots linebacker K'Lavon Chaisson (44) during an NFL game Sunday afternoon. (AP Photo/Peter Joneleit)
Player stats
Pressure: OLB K'Lavon Chaisson 3 (2 QB hits, hurry), S Jaylinn Hawkins 3 (QB hit, hurry), DT Eric Gregory 2 (2 hurries), OLB Harold Landry (sack), S Craig Woodson (QB hit), LB Christian Elliss (QB hit), DT Jeremiah Pharms Jr. (QB hit), DL Christian Barmore (hurry), LB Robert Spillane (hurry)
Run stuffs: Team 2
Pass deflections: CB Carlton Davis 3, CB Marcus Jones 2
Missed tackles: OLB K'Lavon Chaisson
Notes
What happened to the NFL's best run defense? Injuries, and a not-so-warm welcome from one of the league's most underrated rushing attacks.
Entering kickoff, Cincinnati's run game ranked top-5 by Expected Points Added (EPA) and the opponent-and-situation-adjusted metric DVOA. Tackling-breaking running back Chase Brown was a major reason why, and he became the first player to crack the Patriots for 100 rushing yards.
The other piece: the Pats miss Milton Williams and now his replacement, Khyiris Tonga. The defense lost Tonga in the first half to a chest injury, a depth domino that knocked their run defense and pass rush.
Without Tonga, the Patriots had to ask a lot of untested backups Cory Durden (55% of defensive snaps played), Jeremiah Pharms Jr. (31%) and Eric Gregory (28%). Cincinnati pushed each of them around at different times on the ground, as well as Christian Barmore.
That soft middle became a bullseye for the Bengals, and will again for future opponents who can run like Cincinnati. Like past Patriot opponents, the Bengals also targeted K'Lavon Chaisson, a weak run defender who again led this defense in pressures.
Harold Landry tallied the Pats' only sack and his first in five games, but it came 4.8 seconds after the snap; a textbook coverage sack. The Patriots' pass rush is in trouble.
Related: Barmore's season continues to be one of the stranger defensive tackle campaigns in recent memory because while his season-long pressure total remains fairly high, most of his pass-rushing impact has come on hurries and setting up stunts. Rarely is Barmore making hard contact with quarterbacks. This was the sixth game in seven weeks where he finished with zero QB hits.
Behind the defensive tackles, inside linebacker Jack Gibbens starred. He was involved in both run stuffs and showed strong instincts while splitting snaps with Christian Elliss.
Saving the best for last: take a bow, Carlton Davis. His smothering man-to-man coverage paid off on the final drive, when he broke up three passes to double his season total of PBUs. Tee Higgins' absence helped, but matchups aside, Davis helped save the Patriots on Sunday.
Marcus Jones may have gotten away with defensive pass interference against tight end Mike Gesicki on his last defensive snap, but his pick-six in the second quarter is the play to remember. Jones knew the scouting report on Flacco and aggressively jumped a checkdown throw for the second interception return touchdown of his career. Both have come against the Bengals.
Final note: one of the NFL's worst tackling defenses is now one of its best. The Pats have whiffed 10 times total in their last four games.
*Explosive plays are defined as runs of 12-plus yards and passes of 20-plus yards.
**Success rate is an efficiency metric measuring how often an offense stays on schedule. A play is successful when it produces positive EPA (Expected Points Added).
***11 personnel = one running back, one tight end; 12 personnel = one running back, two tight ends; 13 personnel = one back, three tight ends; 21 personnel = two backs, one tight end; 21H = two halfbacks, one tight end; jumbo personnel = two backs, two tight ends, six offensive linemen.
****Base defense = four defensive backs; nickel = five; dime = six, dollar = seven.