Do you even want to Billieve anymore?
I keep going back to the 2023 season as my crutch to help keep the belief alive. The similarities between the current Buffalo Bills team and that Bills team are there. The 2025 Bills have lost four of seven after starting 4-0. The 2023 Bills lost five of eight between Weeks 5 and 12. The offense just didn’t look right. Receivers could not get separation, the play calling was vanilla and predictable, and Josh Allen was forcing plays, and quite frankly did _not_ look like Josh Allen. We longed for the days of 13 seconds, the perfect game, and Josh Allen averaging more than 250 passing yards and three touchdowns per game.
The team’s answer in 2023 was to fire offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey midseason and hand the offense over to quarterback coach Joe Brady. Weeks 13 through 18, they went 5-0 and won the AFC East with an 11-6 record. It was a reminder that late-season momentum can flip an entire story.
Now do I believe the Bills will win the AFC East this year, while sitting two full games behind the Patriots and with them holding the tiebreaker? No, I do not — and that might not be a bad thing.
Yes, the Bills play the Patriots again in December, Week 15 to be exact. But even if the two teams end the season with identical records and split their head-to-head matchups, right now Buffalo still has one more divisional loss than New England. That means the Bills would need the Patriots to lose two more games, with at least one of those losses coming to the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins, plus Buffalo would have to win out. The Patriots’ remaining schedule includes the New York Giants, Baltimore Ravens, Bills, Jets, and Dolphins. It _is_ possible, but it’s far from _likely_.
The Bills also still have a path to the AFC’s one seed, but it would take a collection of miracles and a perfect 6-0 finish. The path of least resistance is clear. Get healthy. Win four of the last six. Secure a wild card berth as the five, six, or seven seed. Then enter the postseason with as little pressure and as much momentum as possible.
Because once you get in, anything can happen, and that’s the real foundation of believing. It’s not September wins, not division banners, not preseason hype, but a team that finds itself at the right time.
Maybe the question isn’t whether we want to Billieve. Maybe the question is whether this is the year believing requires a different definition.
And honestly, maybe that’s the path this season’s Bills need. Every time Buffalo has surged late in the season under head coach Sean McDermott, it’s come from a place of being backed into a corner. Pressure seems to sharpen this team more than comfort ever has. But a wild-card run forces a team to play its best ball in January instead of peaking too early. It narrows the focus, simplifies the mission, and removes the mental math of “how do we catch the division leader?”
So do you still Billieve? Maybe the better question is _what_ do you want to Billieve in. If it’s chasing the AFC East crown for the banner, the bragging rights, the comfort of a home playoff game… that dream feels distant. If instead it’s believing in a battle-tested team that has historically rallied when counted out, a quarterback who has literally dragged rosters to the finish line before, and a defense that has time to stabilize? Then yes, there’s still something worth believing in.
While the route might not be the pretty, dominant, one-seed fantasy Bills Mafia drew up back in September, the postseason doesn’t care how you get in. And if the Bills can steady themselves, get healthier, and play their best football in January, that might just be the winning formula.
The road is harder. The margin for error is thinner. But the season isn’t dead not even close. It just requires a different kind of belief.
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