Thursday night games present a bit of a challenge on the writing side of things. A normal Sunday week provides a bit of a routine. We look at the numbers from the previous game and then later in the week offer some kind of commentary on the next Sunday’s game or a commentary on news affecting the Texans that particular week. We have already done “By the Numbers” last Friday. So, today we take a look at something unique about the 2025 Texans.
One of the things I have to do as an analyst is analyze my own analysis. That sounds like a riddle, so it basically comes down to this: do I find that I am overly optimistic or pessimistic in my analysis? If I am honest with myself, I would have to note that I tend towards the pessimistic side of things. Part of that is my nature and part of that is the nature of analysis itself. Commenting on what is going wrong is just juicier than commenting on what is going right. However, if someone is always negative it comes off just as disingenuous as being a constant rah rah guy. So, while I could continue to pile on Nick Caley and the offense, I decided to shift my attention to what is working.
Taking a deep dive into narratives is always a good thing at certain points of the season. There were two narratives on the Houston Texans this season. The first one (and the one we’ve spent the most time on) is the narrative on offense. The opening narrative is that we would be a quicker offense that would keep C.J. Stroud upright and mitigate any deficits in the offensive line. The results on that narrative have been mixed at best. Yet, the other narrative is that the Texans defense should be a top five defense that will keep the Texans in most games. We are analyzing the results of that narrative today. We are doing that by comparing the 2025 defense with the statistical best defense in franchise history from 2011.
* Points Allowed: 278 (4th)
* Points Per game: 17.4
* Total Yards per game: 285.7 (2nd)
* Rushing Yards per game: 96.0 (4th)
* Passing Yards per game: 189.7 (3rd)
* Sacks per game: 2.75 (6th)
* Turnovers: 1.7 (12th)
Obviously, the 2011 defense was strong across the board. Many analysts look at things like DVOA and other complex stats because points per game can be derived from any number of things. How good was the offense? Did they turn it over a ton and put the defense in bad positions? Were there a ton of special teams plays that skew the numbers? The Texans committed 20 turnovers that season which placed them 6th in that department as well. This is what Bill O’Brien used to lovingly call “complementary football.”
When you take care of the ball AND you have a strong defense then the defensive numbers are going to end up looking pretty good. We could do a statistical deep dive, but that is probably way too much work. The strength of the defense was in simply limiting yards. Teams didn’t move the ball a ton on the Texans that season. They were not as strong (comparatively) in getting to the quarterback and so they were also not as strong (comparatively) in taking the ball away.
Sometimes, that is just luck. Defensive coaches always talk about coaching their teams to be opportunistic. I usually find these claims to be boiler plate stuff that every defensive coach says whether they have a good defense or not. The interesting thing about this defense was while they had J.J. Watt, he was not yet the J.J. Watt that we know and love. They had Mario Williams, but he got hurt mid-year before he could wreak the kind of damage people thought he would. It became an interesting what if when you consider you had both of those guys on the field at the same time for at least part of the season.
* Points Allowed: 182 (2nd)
* Points Per Game: 16.5
* Total Yards Per game: 264.3 (1st)
* Rushing Yards Per game: 92.2 (4th)
* Passing Yards Per game: 172.1 (3rd)
* Sacks per game: 3.0 (6th)
* Turnovers per game: 1.7 (4th)
If you are in the top five in nearly every category then you are a top five defense by sheer definition. The Los Angeles Rams are first in points allowed, but as we pointed out above, sometimes that depends on your offense and special teams. The Texans have only turned it over nine times in eleven games, so despite all the histrionics they have supported the defense on that level. The Texans have allowed two return touchdowns on the season, so that has to be considered as a mitigating factor. There have been 14 total touchdowns allowed on kick returns and punt returns in the NFL. The Texans have allowed two of those. I can’t imagine that teams have allowed more than that.
In addition to turnovers, you also have to contend with average field position and the total amount of time that your defense stays on the field. The Texans are 5th (or 28th) in the amount of punts that they have so far on the season. They are fourth in total punt return yardage (or 29th) they have surrendered. Interestingly enough, only two of the four teams in front of them in total punts have surrendered more return yardage. So, it would appear that the kick coverage teams and the Texans offense aren’t going the defense any favors.
These are the kind of things that go into complex formulas like DVOA and other complex stats. The Texans are slightly better than the Rams on EPA per play. That is a stat that ranks your defensive efficiency when we remove all of the noise like return yardage and starting field position. In short, pound for pound, the Texans have the top rated defense in the NFL this season.
Ironically, while the reasons why are different, the 2011 Texans and the 2025 Texans are very similar teams. The 2011 outfit went 10-6 largely because of injuries to Matt Schaub and other key players. A healthy offense that produced 2010 numbers would have likely resulted in a 12-4 or 13-3 season that year. It is why many Texans fans love to what if the heck out of that particular team.
C.J. Stroud’s concussion notwithstanding, the 2025 season has a slightly different narrative on that side of the ball. In short, they just haven’t been as successful overall or situationally as we had hoped. The end result is likely going to be similar. This looks like a nine or ten win football team when all is said and done. The end result will likely be a similar what if scenario. Obviously, the injury what if is a lot more positive than the alternative. Still, the future is unwritten. If the offense figures out a way to score 20 to 25 points a game for the remainder of the season then the results could be better. It also could make the Texans a potentially dangerous playoff team. We can certainly hope that will be the end result.
See More:
* [Houston Texans Analysis](/houston-texans-analysis)
* [The Value of Things](/the-value-of-things)