After another near-perfect weekend for Arsenal, we check in with the Opta supercomputer to see what its latest projections are for the 2025-26 Premier League title race.
The title may not be won in November, but anyone who genuinely doesn’t think Arsenal will lift the Premier League this season must be expecting significant shifts in form from here.
The Gunners had another near-perfect weekend on Matchday 12, as Liverpool and Manchester City both lost again, before the league leaders dismantled their north-London rivals Tottenham thanks to an Eberechi Eze hat-trick.
That victory took Arsenal six points clear at the top, with Chelsea now their closest challengers. Interestingly, they travel to Stamford Bridge for a top-of-the-table clash next weekend.
With 12 games gone, we’re almost a third of the way through the campaign, so we thought it was an appropriate time to check in with the Opta supercomputer to see where we’re at with the latest Premier League title projections.
PL simulations after MD12 2025-26
Who Will Win the 2025-26 Premier League?
No-one will be surprised that the supercomputer currently makes Arsenal heavy favourites to win their first Premier League title since 2003-04. Mikel Arteta’s men have 29 points from 12 games, with their only loss still their 1-0 defeat at Liverpool on MD3, and it’s fair to say that result was no indication as to how the title race was going to pan out, at least up to now.
We know Gunners fans are a superstitious bunch. The only thing that irks them more than being told they won’t win the league is being told they will, but the supercomputer only deals in cold, hard data. The concept of jinxing doesn’t come into its calculations, and so across its 10,000 simulations of the remainder of the season, Arsenal finish in first place 76.3% of the time.
That does mean, of course, that almost a quarter of the time, someone else manages to pip them to it.
There have been six previous instances of Premier League leaders being ahead of the team in second place by at least six points after 12 games of a season, and every single time they went on to win the title – Manchester United in 1993-94 (nine-point lead), Chelsea in 2005-06 (six points), Chelsea in 2014-15 (six points), Manchester City in 2017-18 (eight points), Liverpool in 2019-20 (eight points), and Liverpool in 2024-25 (eight points).
There have, though, been five instances of teams below second place who were trailing the Premier League leaders by six or more points after 12 games and managed to come from behind to win the title that season, so there remains some hope for the chasing pack.
The last team to do so were Man City in 2013-14, with Manuel Pellegrini’s side six points behind Arsenal after 12 matchdays before going on to win the title by two points. The Gunners ended up finishing fourth, seven points behind City.
As things stand, City remain the likeliest contender this season. Despite their 2-1 loss at Newcastle United on Saturday, Pep Guardiola’s side still recover to win their fifth league title in six years in 14.0% of simulations.
They may have already lost four games this season, but they showed against Liverpool in their last home game how good they can be. They just need to find the consistency that defined much of their four consecutive title wins between 2020-21 and 2023-24. Having Erling Haaland up front will no doubt help as well.
Liverpool’s hopes of defending their crown aren’t quite over, but not even the most optimistic Reds fan is making plans for another title parade in May.
Perhaps they were after winning their first five games, back when they boasted a five-point lead at the top, but an astonishing run that has seen them lose six of their last seven league outings (W1) has led to them free-falling from first place to 12th.
As recently as late September, Liverpool were favourites to win the title with the supercomputer, but they now do so in just 2.3% of sims. It would be an amazing turnaround in form for both them and Arsenal for it to happen, but it did occur in 233 of the 10,000 simulations.
PL title race timeline 2025-26 up to MD12
Chelsea’s win at Burnley on Saturday followed by Liverpool’s chastening home defeat to Nottingham Forest led to the Blues extending their advantage over Arne Slot’s side to five points, but more importantly, it also meant they leapfrogged them when it came to the supercomputer’s projections.
Enzo Maresca’s men have won their last three league games and now sit in second place. They remain six points behind Arsenal, but can halve that when they welcome the Gunners to Stamford Bridge on Sunday. A home win would have a significant impact again on the projections, but for now, Chelsea manage to win the title for the first time since 2016-17 in 3.7% of sims.
What of other challengers, though?
Again, a significant amount of optimism would be required to think any other team will lift the iconic Premier League trophy in May, but it does happen in a small number of simulations.
Aston Villa (1.6%) and Crystal Palace (1.0%) are the only two other sides to finish top in at least 100 of the 10,000 sims, while Brighton win their first top-flight title in 0.4%.
Newcastle are given a 0.2% chance, while Manchester United, Bournemouth and Tottenham all have a 0.1% probability.
There are five teams who, we’re afraid, can probably put their title hopes on ice until next season as they don’t win it in any of the simulations. Commiserations to Nottingham Forest, West Ham, Leeds United, Burnley and Wolves.
More pertinently for them, we will be looking at the supercomputer’s projections for relegation from the Premier League soon…
Premier League Stats Opta
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