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Analysis: Alvin Kamara's resurgence has faded, creating questions about his future with Saints

Kellen Moore had to be corrected when he first said that Alvin Kamara was still being evaluated for the ankle injury he suffered in Sunday’s loss to the Atlanta Falcons. The New Orleans Saints coach meant the running back had hurt his knee, right? Kamara had already been dealing with an ankle injury.

“Oh yeah, sorry,” Moore said. “Yes.”

Moore’s mix-up can be easily chalked up to a mental mistake. But in its own way, the error was yet another way Kamara was overlooked — forgotten? — by the first-year coach.

For whatever reason, Kamara’s usage — and effectiveness — has not nearly been the same under Moore. The 30-year-old is in the midst of the worst statistical season of his career as he’s averaging career lows in yards per carry, catch, and game. And now he’s hurt again.

The lack of production, though, raises uncomfortable questions for the Saints.

Is this a sign that Kamara is finally on his last legs? Or is it a reflection that Moore may not know how to utilize him properly?

Will Kamara’s dip cause the Saints to cut bait with the running back after the season?

The answers aren’t clear. But Kamara isn’t having the season the Saints are used to him having.

“There’s a lot of positives; he’s played really well,” Moore said. “He’s been in some challenging situations. We haven’t been able to get the run game going to the best of our ability. And I think a lot of it is the explosive play. We haven’t been able to generate the explosives, and that’s something we have to continue to evaluate.”

Moore is correct that the Saints haven’t consistently gotten the run game on track this season. The offensive line, particularly the interior, has struggled, no matter which running back takes the carry. While Kamara has averaged only 3.6 yards per attempt in 2025, the other backs on the roster are also under 4 yards per carry at 3.9. Include Taysom Hill in that equation, and the non-Kamara average drops to 3.4.

But the problems with the run don’t explain why Kamara’s effectiveness in the passing game has cratered. Kamara’s 5.6 yards per catch is down from last year’s 8.0. And he’s being targeted far less than usual. In past years, Kamara typically finishes either first or second in team targets. But through 11 games, Kamara’s 39 targets rank fourth on this year’s squad. There have been far fewer screens run for Kamara, who also hasn’t lined up in the slot or out wide as often.

The age factor, however, can’t be ignored.

Kamara said in 2024 that he didn’t feel anywhere close to having “running back-body syndrome,” a diagnosis he said people like to prescribe backs approaching their 30s. And that season, it appeared to be true. He enjoyed a true bounce-back campaign last fall, including a stellar four-touchdown day against the Dallas Cowboys. The resurgence is partly why the Saints rewarded Kamara with a two-year, $24.5 million contract extension.

But Kamara looks a lot different at 30 than he did at 29. According to Next Gen Stats, his minus-95 rushing yards over expected is the second-worst in the NFL and his yards per carry average is the fourth-lowest among 48 qualified rushers. Kamara’s ankle injury, suffered in early October, may have affected those numbers — but his explosiveness has continued to be a concern.

Since 2023, he’s had just three rushes go longer than 20 yards — all of which occurred last season.

If the Saints do want to move on from Kamara this offseason, according to Over The Cap, New Orleans could clear $8.5 million in cap space by designating his release as a post-June 1 cut. Such a move would split up the $18.2 million left in dead money on Kamara’s deal over the next two seasons.

Kamara, whose contract expires after 2026, has often said he wants to stay with the Saints. He did so as recently as last month when he threatened to retire if dealt at the trade deadline. He told reporters that he’d go “drink a piña colada somewhere” if traded.

“I’ve been vocal that I don’t want to go anywhere, and I’ve said it countless times, y’all know that, I think everybody knows that, the fan base knows that,” Kamara said then.

The fan base may be wondering how much he has left.

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