The 49ers' [messy divorce with Brandon Aiyuk](https://www.si.com/nfl/49ers/onsi/news/assessing-whether-49ers-winners-losers-after-brandon-aiyuk-news) points to an organizational dilemma: the franchise is stuck between the benefits of Kyle Shanahan and the drawbacks. It’s a package deal.
The Yorks want the fiscal benefits that Shanahan brings: a sold out stadium, a waiting list for season tickets and luxury suites, and a team that is in the playoff mix frequently, led by one of the best offensive minds in football. However, that comes at a cost that played out in the Aiyuk drama, the consequences of Shanahan having final say on personnel.
Social media reaction leads to some pointing the finger of blame at John Lynch or Paraag Marathe, arguing that this episode proves Shanahan doesn’t control everything the organization does. I disagree in part.
It’s Shanahan who defied the rest of the organization in demanding that Aiyuk be re-signed, even as a trade was being finalized. Marathe likely voided the 2026 guarantees, but if not for Shanahan, Aiyuk is a Pittsburgh Steeler, and the Niners would have who they took with the 20th pick in the 2024 draft.
Debate of The Faithful
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Those who support Shanahan point to his elite ability in designing plays and coaching the team, that even with poor drafts and personnel decisions, the Niners have made it to two Super Bowls. And that calling for Shanahan to be fired is welcoming back the punchline days of Jim Tomsula and Chip Kelly. That is undeniably true. Team Gift.
Those who don’t point to nothing substantive done about the constant injuries, the high salary cost of extending the core at every opportunity, Shanahan’s lack of ability in evaluating quarterbacks, and neglect of the offensive line. That is undeniably true. Team Curse.
Gift argues that as long as the team keeps making Super Bowls, they will break through eventually and get a ring. Curse takes it a step further and argues that while Shanahan the coach can get the team to a Super Bowl, Shanahan the shadow GM also prevents them from winning it, particularly due to mismatches at offensive line. In addition, as Shanahan continues to extend the core and not replace it, the team’s chances of returning to a Super Bowl, much less winning it, fade as the core ages and injuries increase.
There is a solution. Keep Shanahan as coach and offensive coordinator and hire an outside GM with full personnel control to evaluate talent and build the roster. However, Shanahan could well reject that and say take away final say and I’ll look at my options. He’ll have his choice of most of the league.
That leads back to the competing priorities trap. It’s what do you value? The younger Faithful fear a return to the bad old days and are content with contention. The older fans are ring or bust; otherwise, what’s the point?
The Yorks’ Decision
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Jed York sides with the younger generation because his mountaintop is money, not rings. In a telling Freudian slip, York said prior to the NFC championship game against Detroit that it really doesn’t matter whether the Niners win the game or not, the season has already been a success. His true priority was laid bare — that rings are nice, but money is the true goal. As long as Shanahan is the goose that lays the golden eggs in the form of home playoff games, York is content.
That comes with problems, though. The Yorks want to tighten spending. Shanahan pays no attention to it; he extends every member of the core, the most expensive path possible. But since Shanahan delivers contention and home playoff games, the Yorks accept it. They choose the cash register over the accounting ledger.
The CMC Easy Button and the Contract Bomb
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Some are arguing that in the wake of voiding Aiyuk’s guaranteed money, the Yorks have put their foot down on spending. I expect they will limit spending in free agency, but take care of Christian McCaffrey.
Why is McCaffrey on board with Shanahan pressing the CMC Easy Button 31 times in a game? Simple, he’s after his next bag. McCaffrey is out of guaranteed money. Therefore, his Iron Man effort this year, making the case for a raise in an extension or picking up the team option on his existing contract.
If the Yorks were tightening the screws fiscally, they would step in and prevent a new CMC deal. I don’t see that happening. McCaffrey is a fan favorite, a team favorite, and Shanahan’s workhorse. To oppose an extension or option would be a franchise earthquake. Which is why I think the Yorks won’t oppose it and predict McCaffrey will get his next bag.
What’s the Future on Offense?
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**QB and WR**: Brock Purdy is still repeating the mistake of panicking under pressure and not taking care of the ball. He hasn’t been able to cross that threshold for years now. That’s discouraging, and I would look to move on. However, the contract they gave him makes that difficult. Mac Jones is rumored to fetch a lot in trade. I doubt they move him, but maybe there is one scenario.
If Shanahan falls in love with Ohio State WR Carnell Tate, he may want to trade up. Jones and the 1st for Minnesota’s pick currently in the top 12 could put Tate in play. Fans being fans will argue passionately for every scenario under the sun that gets that Vikings pick without the Niners giving out their own 1st. Sorry guys, Jones and the 1st is the only way you are getting Minnesota’s first, if then. My expectation is Jones stays, and Shanahan may draft two WRs, USC’s Makai Lemon in the 1st and Notre Dame’s Malachi Fields in the 3rd.
At QB, in my view, Jones stays for a year and then walks for a comp pick. Purdy is the long-term guy, but there is an X-factor in Kurtis Rourke. Good size at 6-3, strong arm, accurate, high TD-INT ratio, but he doesn’t look to run and prefers to stay in the pocket. If the Niners deal Jones, to me, that says they are confident in Rourke stepping up.
**RB and TE**: At running back, I expect them to keep relying on McCaffrey after an extension or picking up the option. History predicts that backs after a high touch season struggle in the following year and miss games. Brian Robinson Jr. and Jordan James will need to be ready.
At tight end, I would move up for Oregon’s Kenyon Sadiq, a capable blocker and an athletic playmaker. Look at the impact Kittle has as the engine of the offense, and that makes the case for Sadiq. I doubt it happens though.
Final Thoughts
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When I write columns like this, I’m called a Shanahan hater. I get it; I’m used to it. I’m not calling for him to be fired, just stripped of final personnel say, but yes, it then flows that if he refused, I would move on. I believe as long as Shanahan has final say in personnel, this team will go ringless. He will continue to overrely on the aging core and underinvest in the offensive line.
Some say just fire John Lynch. To me, that’s if a bakery is struggling, you replace the frosting and say that’ll take care of things. The Niners have to replace the cake. They need to hire a new outside GM with final personnel say. They won't do it. Therefore, good but not a champion. Stuck.
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