Patrick Mahomes finds himself in an unfamiliar position as the 2025 NFL MVP race heats up. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback has watched his odds plummet while rivals surge past him. Matthew Stafford leads at −215 odds with Drake Maye second at +200.
QB Patrick Mahomes Falls Behind in MVP Race to Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye Despite Chiefs’ Week 12 Win
QB Patrick Mahomes Falls Behind in MVP Race to Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye Despite Chiefs’ Week 12 Win
Mahomes dropped from plus 1600 last week to plus 2500 despite leading a comeback victory. His championship background isn’t enough to avoid growing statistical issues as the team faces challenges in Week 12.
Patrick Mahomes currently ranks behind in MVP race
The Chiefs sit at 6 wins and 5 losses, currently keeping them out of the playoff picture. Kansas City’s mediocre record severely damages Mahomes’ candidacy since MVP voters historically favor winning teams. Almost every NFL MVP winner since 2001 has been on a team that won at least 11 games.
Mahomes threw for 352 yards in Sunday’s overtime win against Indianapolis. However, he had zero touchdowns and one interception in that victory. In Kansas City’s last four games, spanning two wins and two losses, he has four touchdowns and five interceptions.
His interception total has become a major problem this season with seven picks already. Mahomes is seventh in the league with 18 touchdowns entering Week 12. That production ranks well behind Stafford’s dominant numbers and Maye’s rookie excellence.
Mahomes was the +150favorite heading into Week 9 earlier this season. Buffalo’s Josh Allen overtook him after the Bills defeated Kansas City 28-21. Mahomes has never recovered from that head-to-head loss.
Stafford presents the biggest obstacle in Mahomes’ path to a third MVP trophy. The Rams quarterback leads the NFL with 30 passing touchdowns through 11 games. Hemoved from +150 to -215 after Los Angeles crushed Tampa Bay in Week 12.
Stafford completed 25 of 35 passes for 273 yards and three touchdowns in the Rams’ 34‑7 win over the Buccaneers in Week 12. He hasn’t thrown an interception since Week 3, giving him just two picks all season. Los Angeles controls the number one seed in the NFC with a 9-2 record.
Drake Maye has emerged as another serious threat despite being a rookie. He’s thrown 21 touchdown passes in 2025 while leading New England to a surprising season. The Patriots sit in first place in the AFC, giving Maye strong team success to support his case.
Mayejumped from +425 after Week 8 to +275 currently at some sportsbooks. Months ago, bettors could have gotten Maye at plus 6600 odds. His rise has been one of the season’s biggest storylines.
ESPN analyst notes Patrick Mahomes isn’t enjoying as dominant a season as he has had in the past. Mahomes is more than talented enough to go on a heater and lead the Chiefs to seven consecutive victories theoretically.
The Chiefsdon’t have a strong running attack, so Mahomes’ arm will be relied on heavily down the stretch. If Mahomes can lead Kansas City to a 7-0 or 6-1 mark the rest of the way, that would strengthen his case significantly.
The problem is that his efficiency has been inconsistent and Kansas City has real flaws limiting their ceiling. The market is assuming the Chiefs won’t go 6-1 and jump to the one seed at this point.
If they do make that run, then Mahomes rockets to the top overnight, according to betting experts. If they don’t, his chances are dead with only six games remaining. Right now, the stats reflect a non-MVP season for the two-time winner.