Week 12 is in the books, and the Los Angeles Rams stand alone atop the NFC at 9-2. The Dallas Cowboys would have been eulogized had they lost to the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, but the Birds granted them a stay of execution.
Obituaries
None.
Graveyard
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Hierarchy
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10) Panthers (6-6): Bryce Young had a rough night against the Niners, marred by weird decisions, most notably on this goal line INT
Bryce, just outrun the fat guy to the pylon.
The Panthers have made major strides this season, but it has mainly been as a result of a very good rushing attack and a much improved defense. I'm not so sure Young has really elevated his game, despite the improved circumstances around him.
Last week: 9
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9) Cowboys (5-5-1): Credit the Cowboys for a great win on Sunday. They fought their asses off, never gave up, and beat the reigning champs. That said, I thought this was an interesting quote after the game from Jerry Jones:
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Remember back in 1995, when the Eagles stuffed the Cowboys on consecutive run plays to force a turnover on downs, and won the game?
That was kind of a signature Eagles win during the '90s. And yet, the Eagles got trounced by the Cowboys in the divisional round of the playoffs that year, and the Cowboys went on to win their third Super Bowl in four seasons.
It used to be the Eagles who were ultra proud of regular season wins over Dallas, but that has flipped.
Last week: 10
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8) Buccaneers (6-5): The Bucs have lost three straight and four of five, and they got their asses handed to them on Sunday Night Football. Still, Inpredictable has them as 85 percent likely to win the NFC South. Since 2022, the Bucs are 19-23 against teams outside of the NFC South, and yet they're very likely to have 4 division titles during that span. Last week: 5
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7) 49ers (8-4): The Niners survived Monday night against the Panthers despite Brock Purdy throwing 3 INTs in the first half.
Sometimes INTs are a result of a ball going through a receiver's hands, or the quarterback getting hit as he's throwing, etc. These are all bad throws and/or bad decisions:
If you'll note in the commentary before the first INT in the video above, Troy Aikman is saying that the Niners would like to get RB2 Brian Robinson more involved, but Christian McCaffrey doesn't want to come off the field. Lol, what? Maybe make him come off the field? He had 31 touches against the Panthers, and is now on pace for 422 during the regular season. The Niners could be a quick out in the playoffs this season, and then have the effects of an extreme workload season hampering their best player next season.
Last week: 8
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6) Bears (8-3): Six of the Bears' wins have come by a combined 16 points. Credit them for winning close games, but it's really hard to be 8-3 with a negative point differential.
Their Black Friday matchup against the Eagles is arguably their biggest game since the double-doink game. (They actually have made the playoffs since that game, but they got in with an 8-8 record, and had no real shot of making the Super Bowl.)
Last week: 7
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5) Packers (7-3-1): Myles Garrett already has 18 (!) sacks. He is going to win NFL Defensive Player of the Year, and is well over a pace to break the NFL sack record.
But Micah Parsons would be a pretty good candidate to win it any other normal year. He has very clearly been the Packers' best player by a country mile this season. Video via @BookOfEli_NFL:
Last week: 6
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4) Lions (7-4): With 3:19 left in regulation, the Giants had a 1st and Goal from the Lions' 4 yard line, with a 3 point lead. A Tyrone Tracy run on 1st down got 2 yards, and an incomplete pass made it 3rd and Goal from the 2. On 3rd and 2, the Lions were clearly offsides, and they stopped Tracy for a loss of 4 on the play, largely because of the advantage gained by being offsides:
No flag, and somehow there was no mention of it on the broadcast.
That set up a 4th and Goal from the 6, and the Giants (correctly, IMO) tried to score a touchdown instead of kicking the field goal. They didn't get it, the Lions tied the game up, and eventually won in overtime.
Had the officials flagged the obvious offsides penalty, it would have been 3rd and Goal from the 1. Would they have gotten in? Dunno 🤷♂️, but... probably?
Here's what the NFC standings look like at the moment:
Seed Team Record
1 Rams 9-2
2 Eagles 8-3
3 Bears 8-3
4 Buccaneers 6-5
5 Seahawks 8-3
6 Packers 7-3-1
7 49ers 8-4
8 Lions 7-4
9 Panthers 6-6
10 Cowboys 5-5-1
11 Falcons ☠️ 4-7
12 Vikings ☠️ 4-7
13 Cardinals ☠️ 3-8
14 Commanders ☠️ 3-8
15 Saints ☠️ 2-9
16 Giants ☠️ 2-10
☠️ = Graveyard
Had the officials flagged the offsides call and the Lions lost the game, they'd be two games back in the NFC North and 1.5 games out in the Wild Card. It'll be interesting to see if that no-call affects whether some other team gets left out of the tourney as a result.
Last week: 4
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3) Seahawks (8-3): Jaxon Smith-Njigba had 8 catches for 167 yards and 2 TDs against the Titans on Sunday. He now has 80 catches for 1313 yards and 7 TDs on the season. He has gone over 100 receiving yards in eight games this season, and is on pace to break Calvin Johnson's single-season receiving yardage record of 1964 yards. JSN is on pace for 2029 yards, so he actually has a decent buffer there. (One extra game on the schedule these days, of course.)
Last week: 3
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2) Eagles (8-3): These are some wild success rate stats from my friend Deniz:
For those of you who are unfamiliar, "success rate" is determined by a certain percentage of the yards needed for a first down. A play is considered "successful" if:
• 40% of the necessary yards are gained on first down.
• 60% on second down.
• 100% on third or fourth down.
I'd be curious to see how much worse their success rates would be if Tush Pushes weren't helping.
For the context of the years Deniz noted above, 2005 was the Mike McMahon year. In 2020, Carson Wentz got benched and everyone got fired. In 2014, if you went for a pee break in between possessions, you'd return to find the Eagles punting because they'd run three shitty Chip Kelly plays that went nowhere at warp speed.
This is the most expensive offense in the NFL, by the way.
And yet, if the Eagles beat the Bears on Black Friday, they will pretty much have at least the 2 seed on lock, given their tiebreakers over almost every contender in the NFC.
Last week: 2
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1) Rams (9-2): Over the last couple of weeks, I've been getting complaints that the Eagles should be ahead of the Rams in the Hierarchy because they had the same record, and the Eagles beat them in Week 3.
Though it's certainly true that the Eagles beat them, they did so on a blocked field goal. But more importantly, I can't see how anyone can look at these two teams right now (or then) and conclude, "The Eagles are better."
The Rams and Eagles both have very good defenses. Their offenses aren't close.
Last week: 1