The goal of this regression-centric space is to tell fantasy football folks which of their borderline fantasy options are running particularly hot or particularly cold, to use a little technical language.
Every week during the regular season I’ll highlight players whose usage and opportunity doesn’t quite match their production. That might look like a running back scoring touchdowns at an unsustainable clip or a pass catcher putting up big stat lines while working as a rotational player in his offense. It could also look like a pass catcher seeing gobs of air yards and targets without much to show for it. Things of that nature.
**👉 Some stats I’ll focus on weekly in the Regression Files:** Rush yards over expected, targets per route, air yards, air yards per target, red zone targets, green zone targets, quarterback touchdown rate, and expected touchdowns. A lot of this regression stuff, as you probably know, comes down to touchdowns — specifically, predicting touchdowns (or lack thereof).
I’ll (mostly) ignore every-week fantasy options who you’re going to play whether they’re running hot or cold, or somewhere in between. My goal is to make this column as actionable as possible for all fantasy formats. Telling you to keep playing **Jahmyr Gibbs** during a cold streak doesn’t strike me as particularly actionable.
📈 Positive Regression Candidates
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### **Adonai Mitchell (NYJ)**
I promise, no matter what RotoPat says, I take no pleasure in pointing out Mitchell as a screaming (positive) regression guy entering Week 13. But all the guy does is get open and command high-value targets. If he could ever do something other than make a boneheaded play, he could be (very) fun for fantasy purposes.
Mitchell, an athletic freak, keeps doing that thing where he gets targeted at a high rate and piles up air (prayer) yards. Only two guys -- **Tre Tucker** and **Wan’Dale Robinson** -- had more air yards than Mitchell in Week 12, and only Michael Wilson has more air yards over the past two weeks. He’s been targeted on 29 percent of his pass routes over those two games after being traded from the Colts to the Jets; it’s a top-20 rate, in line with **Davante Adams** and **Rashee Rice**.
Again, I take zero pleasure in reporting this.
Look, no receiver averaging 22 air yards per target is going to be a sure thing for fantasy. Mitchell is a mega-giga-turbo high variance option, per the zoomers. With 52 yards on just three receptions over his two games with New York, Mitchell is running ice cold. Imagine that. At least he has upside though; we can’t say that for a lot of deep league plays we plug into our flex this time of year.
### **Christian Watson (GB)**
Watson’s role in the Green Bay offense is interesting even if his recent production has been something short of interesting. So it goes.
Watson in Week 12 against the Vikings led the Packers with a 40 percent first-read target rate, a top-five mark among all receivers last week. Watson saw a target on one-third of his pass routes and was not the recipient of prayer yards, sporting a reasonable 11.7 air yards per target against Minnesota.
None of this meant a whole lot for Watson in Week 12 largely because the Packers established the run like it was 1973. They were nearly 10 percent below their expected pass rate, their run-heaviest outing of 2025. This generated just 21 pass attempts for **Jordan Love** as **Matt LaFleur** committed to not winning the game by too many points.
If the Packers are ever pushed into a pass-heavy script — and they might be on Thanksgiving Day against the Lions — Watson’s valuable role in the Green Bay offense could lead to actual fantasy points.
### **Oronde Gadsden II (LAC)**
Don’t get spooked by Gadsden’s disappearing act in Week 11 against the Jaguars. The entire Chargers offense once again buckled without all-important left tackle **Joe Alt**. Fellow Rotoworlder Kyle Dvorchak [wrote last week](https://www.nbcsports.com/fantasy/football/news/10-fantasy-football-takeaways-from-week-11-diagnosing-the-chargers-and-chiefs-struggles) about the Bolts’ offense becoming one of the NFL’s worst with Alt sidelined.
Gadsden still ran 76 percent of the routes against the Jags and was targeted on a fine and dandy 22 percent of those routes. **Justin Herbert** being forced into quick checkdown throws thanks to his deteriorating offensive line probably means more short-area looks for Gadsden in the coming weeks.
### **Chris Rodriguez (WAS)**
The Washington backfield is likely to remain a frustratingly fantasy-unfriendly place, with three backs getting a decent rush share and route share for a team that doesn’t create much in the way of neutral and positive game script (only the Saints and Titans have fewer offensive snaps with the game within one score this season).
I’m writing up Rodriguez because, well, he’s been quite good in 2025. He ranks third among all running backs in rush yards over expected per rush, a geeky way to saying he’s creating a lot more yards than he’s expected to create based on a variety of factors.
C-Rod’s rush yards before contact per attempt (3.1) ranks fifth among all backs this season. Interestingly, weirdly, his backfield mate **Jeremy McNichols** leads all running backs in this category (4.5). McNichols also ranks 15th in running back yards per route run. **Jacory Croskey-Merritt** ranks a respectable 18th in rush yards over expected per attempt. What if I told you all three Commanders backs are pretty dang good?
If you’re looking to stash a running back on your bench for the stretch run, you could do worse than Rodriguez.
### **Harold Fannin (CLE)**
There is a scenario in which Fannin becomes a legendary NFL tight end, the kind you tell your kids about even if you’re a weirdo who doesn’t play fantasy football.
Coming off the single greatest tight end college season in history, Fannin is checking every single box as an elite pass-catching tight end in the miserable Cleveland offense. Last week against the Raiders, with **Shedeur Sanders** drawing his first start, Fannin drew a target on a whopping 43 percent of his pass routes. He ran a route on 67 percent of the Browns’ drop backs while **David Njoku** was stuck at 27 percent -- usage that could suggest the Browns are ready to see what they have in their young players for 2026 and beyond.
Fannin through Week 12 is tied with **Dalton Kincaid** for the highest targets per route run (TPRR) among tight ends (27 percent). Fannin’s 1.75 yards per route — ranking 16th among tight ends — speaks to the inefficiency of the Browns ofense and his role as a short-area pass catcher. He’s averaging a palty 5.4 air yards per target. Obviously this makes Fannin much more valuable in PPR formats.
Fannin is clearly a priority in the Cleveland offense. His 20 percent first-read target rate ranks among the top ten tight ends. Against the Raiders in Week 12, he was second in first-read target rate among Browns pass catchers.
If Sanders is able to breathe a little fantasy life into this dead-on-arrival Browns passing offense and Fannin keeps playing ahead of Njoku, he could be quite interesting in the final five weeks of the fantasy season. Probably we’ll need Sanders and the Browns in negative game script to inflate pass volume and give Fannin a chance to explore his statistical ceiling. We might get that in Week 13 against the 49ers.
Browns' Sanders will see highs, lows as starter
Patrick Daugherty and Kyle Dvorchak recap Shedeur Sanders' first start for the Browns against the Raiders, sharing what they expect to see from the rookie quarterback after being named the Week 13 starter.
📉 Negative Regression Candidates
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### **Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG)**
I was more than a little bullish on Robinson going into the Giants’ Week 12 game against Detroit, as you know if you checked out my Friday afternoon live stream on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel. I begged folks to jam Robinson into their 12-team lineups because I banked on the Giants playing from behind (got that wrong) and **Jameis Winston** being a massive boon for a wideout who has excelled on downfield targets since his college days.
It worked out, as Robinson racked up 156 yards and a score on nine grabs against Detroit. He saw 45 percent of the Giants’ air yards and was targeted on a lofty 35 percent of his routes. Over the past three weeks only **Trey McBride**, **Michael Wilson,** and **Amon-Ra St. Brown** have more first-read targets than Wan’Dale.
I know this will make Giants fans mad but **Jaxson Dart**’s likely Week 13 return is a hit to Robinson’s fantasy prospects. That’s mostly because nothing is better for a receivers’ prospects than a quarterback like **Jameis Winston**, who -- unlike the NFL’s ultra-safe, 7-on-7 flag football Gen-Z quarterbacks -- grips it and rips it and takes chances down the field. The Giants have averaged 312 air yards per game in Winston starts this season. With Dart under center, they averaged 233 air yards per game. Week 12 marked the Giants’ most total team air yards (a league-leading 401).
It’s the sort of thing that can affect a wideout’s weekly ceiling. I’m not telling you to eliminate Robinson from Week 13 consideration. Just be careful with how you deploy him if you have similar or better options.
### **Darnell Mooney (ATL)**
Seventy-four yards and a touchdown is exactly what you hoped for if you started Mooney in Week 12 against the Saints with the understanding that the football had to go somewhere with Drake London (knee) sidelined.
Well, you should feel bad about getting away with it if you played Mooney in Week 12. His target profile was downright hideous: Mooney saw three targets against the Saints, catching all of them. He was targeted on just 12 percent of his pass routes while Kyle Pitts had a TPRR of 20 percent. Mooney’s 17 percent TPRR on the season — the same as **Matthew Golden** and **Xavier Legette** — doesn’t inspire much confidence that he’ll suddenly become a target commander with London out.
Mooney led the Falcons with a mere 70 air yards (44 percent air yards share) in a massively run-first game plan for Atlanta.
The Falcons, with **Kirk Cousins** under center for an injured **Michael Penix**, totaled 157 air yards in Week 12, the third fewest in the league. There won’t be many pass attempts or air yards to go around for Mooney and the rest of the Atlanta pass catchers with the weak-armed Cousins at the helm. I’d urge you to view Mooney’s Week 12 stat line with a big heaping of skepticism.
### **Hunter Henry (NE)**
It’s difficult to exaggerate how generous the Bengals defense has been to opposing tight ends this season. Probably you knew that since Henry of all people had a big day against them in Week 12.
Henry’s ten targets in Week 12 marked the second time this season he saw double-digit targets. He had seen four or fewer targets in six games going into Week 12. Henry on the season has been targeted on 19 percent of his pass routes, which ranks 46th out of 70 qualifying tight ends. It’s not the greatest target-earning profile for the dusty veteran tight end.
The Bengals allow a league high 10.1 targets per game and 6.9 receptions per game to tight ends this season. They give up almost 88 tight end receiving yards per game; no one else allows more than 72. Almost every tight end gets there against the stripey helmets.
Henry’s Week 13 opponents, the Giants, are far tougher against the tight end. While Henry is a viable streaming option if you’re scrambling to flll your tight end spot this week, don’t be tricked into seeing Henry as a locked-in 12-team starter because he did what every tight end does and roasted the Bengals.
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