On paper, the Pittsburgh Steelers’ offense had a good-enough day against the Chicago Bears. A strong running game that nearly posted 200 yards. An offense that scored 21 points. A unit that moved the ball on a 95-yard drive for its best possession of the season. All with a backup quarterback, one who wasn’t officially named starter until 24 hours before kickoff. Arthur Smith and the offense legitimately did positive things in Chicago.
But there were negatives. Beyond just the two turnovers and failure to get into field goal range on the Steelers’ final two drives. Committing to the run hard, Smith repeatedly ran the ball on second and long, stressing the offense with third and forever.
Four times on Sunday, Pittsburgh’s offense faced 2nd and 10 or longer. Three times, Smith chose to run the ball. Twice on 2nd and 10 and once on 2nd and 14.
Not one of those runs were successful. Jaylen Warren gained 4 yards on one, 3 yards on another, while Kenneth Gainwell lost 1 yard on his attempt. All three put Pittsburgh in third and long. Here’s a cut-up.
The ensuing results were a mixed bag. One led to a punt, one led to a pass interference that extended the drive, and another led to a 4th and 1 and Kenneth Gainwell’s 55-yard scoot on the fake Tush Push. But the process isn’t sound.
Worse yet, the Steelers became entirely predictable when deciding to throw on 1st and 10. Excluding late-game moments where passing became a must, Pittsburgh threw on 1st and 10 nine times. On those nine ensuing plays, the Steelers proceeded to run the ball seven times.
Of those seven follow-up runs, Pittsburgh gained only 21 yards. An average of just 3 yards with a “long” of 5. Those are strong tendencies opposing defenses will key in on. And those two passes? One, an RPO bubble to WR Calvin Austin III, the other a checkdown to Gainwell.
There’s no problem with having a run-heavy game plan. Pittsburgh’s run game has been getting better throughout the season, the Steelers were without Aaron Rodgers, and the Bears haven’t been good against the run all year. In total, running it 36 times isn’t a bad thing and the Steelers were largely successful. Smith’s use of sixth offensive lineman Spencer Anderson, for example, was excellent. He varied Anderson’s alignments and mixed up play calling off that, keeping the Bears off-balance.
But running on second and long is just bad business. Good offenses and smart play callers stay away from it knowing it leads to third and long. On the year, Smith is doing so 33.3 percent of the time. That’s not the NFL’s highest but it’s up there. Teams that run in those situations the least? The Indianapolis Colts, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Chargers, Los Angeles Rams, Buffalo Bills, Atlanta Falcons, and New England Patriots. Largely, a collection of the NFL’s highest-scoring teams.
Old habits die hard. Smith loves to run the ball and frankly, hasn’t gotten to do it as much as he’d like to this season. For a variety of reasons, Pittsburgh simply hasn’t possessed the football enough. But there are moments where running is smart and the sound thing to do. There are moments where you can’t. Smith didn’t have the right balance on Sunday.
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